Projections...

[Oracle]

Sparma: "Pretty consistent stuff. Hate to go up against the folks who make predictions for a living, but that consensus strikes me as low. Maybe not by as much as I'd been thinking earlier though. Smith did bring up the risk of injury as a likely consideration (while adding that we don't get the inside picture on how they come up with these exact numbers)."

Why would you think these guys know any more than we do about this team? In fact, I'm sure that they know a lot less! They're prediction could easily be 10 games off.

Having said that, they're doing exactly what I did when we got Avery Bradley, I factored in the certainty of him being injured and the fact that he always got injured exactly when it would do the most damage to his team, and he was always out for long stretched.

None of our guys is Avery Bradley, in fact there are few players that consistent with injuries. I don't see Reggie as a big injury risk, but I do see Rose as a bigger injury risk than Blake.

There's a lot of factors that exist today that didn't when most of these injury prone players played in years past... it's called Load Management!

Smart use of load management could be a key in us maximizing the players that are at risk, and I expect that to play a big role next season.

IMO, those guys looked at the risk and made calculated bets on our win totals, nothing wrong with that. What I think we shouldn't do is look at that as ANY sort of gospel, it's a prediction, most likely no better than any of us can make if we leave our heart out of it.

BTW, this season, that gives me the idea of letting guys give two predictions, one from head and one from the heart... should be fun!!!

The full article you cited is here: Are Pessimistic Win Total Projections For The Detroit Pistons Fair?

[Sparma]

Duncan Smith (Forbes) gathered a series of low win projections: "FanDuel's book has them at 36.5, while both Draft Kings and BetOnline have the Pistons at 37.5 wins. FiveThirtyEight's projections have them winning 36 games with the 10th-best record in the Eastern Conference."

Pretty consistent stuff. Hate to go up against the folks who make predictions for a living, but that consensus strikes me as low. Maybe not by as much as I'd been thinking earlier though. Smith did bring up the risk of injury as a likely consideration (while adding that we don't get the inside picture on how they come up with these exact numbers).

Hope you're right with your causes for optimism about the shooting, Lemonpen.

I'd bet that Rose 3pt% goes down this year. And remember that Griffin got his 3pt% up early, then landed very close to league average. I'd need to check the exact numbers, but I think he shot below league average for most of the second half of the year.

Concerning Rose, I reconstructed what his career 3pt% would have been at the beginning of last season: 29.647%. I was curious what his career baseline was without including last season (37%) with its vast improvement. The difference between last year and his career average going into the season?: 7.35%. That's a ton! Maybe he just became a much better shooter. It seems more likely to me that last season was an outlier (even allowing for some genuine improvement), and that this season's average moves in the direction of his previous career average. At 29.3%, Stanley Johnson's career 3pt% is a stone's throw away from Rose's at the beginning of last season. Scary.

Thanks Oracle.

My recollection is that various sources, including 538, put the Pistons pretty low last year too at about 38, 39.  They were too low, but not far off.  I do think the Pistons have actually dropped this year for some early prognosticators, surprisingly.  

Maybe another factor in the low early guesses is that Griffin, Reggie J, and Rose were above their career 3 pt averages last season, Blake by 2%, Reggie by 3.6%, and Rose by 6.6% (!!).  And those gaps, already considerable, would be greater if we compared their '18-19 season average to their career averages at the beginning of the season, i.e., without including last season's significantly improved shooting.   Did they truly learn to shoot to those high levels last year, or can some regression reasonably be expected?  Some early prognosticators may be persuaded of the latter.  

I hope that Blake can stay around the 35% level, down from his 36% last year.  Maybe Reggie got more time to shoot from 3 last year than he had earlier, making a natural progression to his new role, so that he can remain around last year's 36.9%.  Rose deviated most dramatically from his career norm, and gives me the most cause for concern, especially because he'll likely be going up against 1st stringers more often this coming season.

There may be reason to be encouraged as opposed to concerned.  
Rose:  When healthy enough to play at least 51 games he tends to raise his overall performance from the prior year.  Last year was pretty good.  Here’s hoping Arnie Kander has a MVP year.  


Blake:  Griff hadn’t attempted more than 2 3pt shots per game in his first 7 seasons (prior to 2017-18), making this offensive weapon a relatively new addition to his game.  What I find encouraging is that last season he increased his 3fga from 5.4 to 7.0/gm and became more efficient from BOTH 3 and 2pt range.  I’m left to believe there is a 50/50 chance his 3pt shooting will improve over last year.  

[lemonpen]

I like the first trade idea in this article, but at least this guy is thinking.

Trades the Detroit Pistons Need to Make This Off-Season
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BTW, I like the Pistons signings of Withers & Hall(Exhibit Contracts), both of whom looked good in SL. It's a really smart move because it ties them to us in case they develop or we have a dire need.


Exhibit Contract: An Exhibit 10 contract, according to Slam Online, is a one-year, minimum salary contract that can be converted into a two-way contract or allows the organization to option them to their Gatorade League affiliate.

You sure that article is titled properly. Trades we NEED to make. I'll pass of all of them. OK, maybe two of them.

Schroeder:
Dennis is unremarkably just ok. Not a needle mover. Spending an expiring contract on him would leave me feeling like we may have wasted an opportunity to go free agent shopping next summer.

Paul:
His age. His mileage. His contract. On top of just putting up his least productive season in the last 6. And, he is compensating by hoisting more 3 pointers & fewer 2s, both less efficiently. 10x the risk of Westbrook.

Gallinari:
Yeah I would do it. Danilo carries a big enough expiring contract to (1) have trade deadline value if found useless and (2) permits free agent shopping next summer. He is also coming off of a career year for shooting, his calling card. Lastly, not receiving a PG in trade opens an opportunity for Bruce Brown at another b/u position.

Donta Hall: He demonstrated a really good nose for getting his hand to the ball from some improbable positions. Worth a shot to see how good a defender he can become.

[lemonpen]

Something to consider.

Andre may very well have something like a breakout season. History favors a tendency for career bests when fresh dollars are on the line. That career characteristic may be one of the most predictably occurring ever in sports. On the flip side I maintain it's a certainty that Dre will become increasingly distracted as additional players drop out of consideration for Team USA.

Matter of fact don’t be surprised to see a reincarnation of first-27-game Reggie Jackson; you know the guy who averaged 17 & 9, balling out on his way to $80 million. Wasn't that coincidentally the last time we saw him balling out.

As a side note I find it particularly disgusting when peak performance only & always coincides with contract years.

[lemonpen]

Thanks Oracle.

My recollection is that various sources, including 538, put the Pistons pretty low last year too at about 38, 39.  They were too low, but not far off.  I do think the Pistons have actually dropped this year for some early prognosticators, surprisingly.  

Maybe another factor in the low early guesses is that Griffin, Reggie J, and Rose were above their career 3 pt averages last season, Blake by 2%, Reggie by 3.6%, and Rose by 6.6% (!!).  And those gaps, already considerable, would be greater if we compared their '18-19 season average to their career averages at the beginning of the season, i.e., without including last season's significantly improved shooting.   Did they truly learn to shoot to those high levels last year, or can some regression reasonably be expected?  Some early prognosticators may be persuaded of the latter.  

I hope that Blake can stay around the 35% level, down from his 36% last year.  Maybe Reggie got more time to shoot from 3 last year than he had earlier, making a natural progression to his new role, so that he can remain around last year's 36.9%.  Rose deviated most dramatically from his career norm, and gives me the most cause for concern, especially because he'll likely be going up against 1st stringers more often this coming season.

There may be reason to be encouraged as opposed to concerned.
Rose: When healthy enough to play at least 51 games he tends to raise his overall performance from the prior year. Last year was pretty good. Here’s hoping Arnie Kander has a MVP year.


Blake: Griff hadn’t attempted more than 2 3pt shots per game in his first 7 seasons (prior to 2017-18), making this offensive weapon a relatively new addition to his game. What I find encouraging is that last season he increased his 3fga from 5.4 to 7.0/gm and became more efficient from BOTH 3 and 2pt range. I’m left to believe there is a 50/50 chance his 3pt shooting will improve over last year.

[Oracle]

Ballin, this was an excellent post, you covered a lot and I'll piggy back on it a bit.

Miss me with all the Dre-Luv until he can relinquish his stranglehold grip on Team Shrinking Violet.  After 7 damn seasons of potential and stats it’s time to put it together “when it counts”  for the wins and winning bball.  He has proven himself to be a slow learner, but each year does add something, so there is that. Agree and I think he will.

He needs to join Team Piston Aggression led by “The BBs, “ Blake and Bruce and one more candidate who will help fight for wins. (Weggie/Rose/Sekou/Luke) can hopefully ride the Kander Grgurich Train.  Svi appears to be running after that train as well as C Wood, both who play with a sense of aggression, as does Kander-rejuvenated Kief, alongside the Kander Rejuvenated Rose. When others complained about getting Blake, I was posting how he'll make us better. Well, it took a whole season and change, but this year the transition will complete itself.

My belief is that the team and especially Dre (who was correctly booed for his crunch time lackluster efforts) will take offense and play with a chip on the shoulder.  YUP!

Prove-it seasons for Rose, Dre, Weggie, Snell, Kief Wood could provide both friction and fuel.  Iron sharpens Iron.  And for Blake, he is in perpetual prove-it mode.

It’s a prove-it season for Casey too, especially for him since we just saw his protege and offensive coach Nurse home a title for the Raptors.  Gotta sting a bit.  He needs to be less stubborn, predictable and more creative.  Figure out an offense where Blake, Luke n Weggie can all get theirs. I wouldn't say prove it for Casey, but he should be highly motivated!

The FO is trying a hard left towards youth, length and toughness.  They also added win-a-bit more vets if healthy types in Rose and Kief.  On balance, there’s enough new in the stew that should keep us diehards slurping some many flavors of Pistons Kool Aid. Sho Nuff!!!

This team boils down to those who need Blake to drive backbone and those who don't.

Those who Need Blake:
1. Drummond is #1 on this list, and that's no slight. He's played with a bunch of scrub or faded big men his entire career, and now, finally, has a big man that can teach him what it takes to be a winner. This is the year he internalizes the aggression and begins the journey towards becoming his own man.

While some complain about Drummond, and there's much to complain about, as with any player, Jordan, Pippen & Phill realized what most are missing... You can't score if you don't have the ball! With scorers around Drummond, he's the guy that will get you the possessions and the opportunity to score, and that's all he needs to do, other than defend and get garbage hoops, IMO. We can argue the money, but that's another discussion.

2. Reggie - Reggie has aggression, but he's miscast as Batman. He would have been a great Robin pre injury, but now, cast as a 3rd/4th banana is just about right. So he needs Blake to be Batman, and the rise of Kennard, Brown, or others would be icing on the cake! 

3. Youngsters: While most of them have the gene to compete, having someone on the team that shows how to use that gene is very important.

Those who don't need Blake:
1. Rose - Totally self contained, he's going to compete no matter what. In addition, I was crying for more slashers because one of our greatest weaknesses was that the only way we got to the basket was a Blake ISO or the occasional Reggie drive. Rose fills that category early and often, and the emergence of Bruce Brown adds another slasher.

2. Morris - Another vet with aggression built in! We needed more tough players, and both Rose and Morris provide toughness to a squad that outside of Blake, was pardon me, mostly soft!

If Reggie becomes the old Reggie 1 out of every 3 games, and the Reggie of last season the other 2, we're going to be a lot better.

IMO, our biggest enemy is health, and hopefully Arnie will outlaw bad health 

[BallinD]

Miss me with all the Dre-Luv until he can relinquish his stranglehold grip on Team Shrinking Violet. After 7 damn seasons of potential and stats it’s time to put it together “when it counts” for the wins and winning bball. He has proven himself to be a slow learner, but each year does add something, so there is that.

He needs to join Team Piston Aggression led by “The BBs, “ Blake and Bruce and one more candidate who will help fight for wins. (Weggie/Rose/Sekou/Luke) can hopefully ride the Kander Grgurich Train. Svi appears to be running after that train as well as C Wood, both who play with a sense of aggression, as does Kander-rejuvenated Kief, alongside the Kander Rejuvenated Rose.

My belief is that the team and especially Dre (who was correctly booed for his crunch time lackluster efforts) will take offense and play with a chip on the shoulder.

Prove-it seasons for Rose, Dre, Weggie, Snell, Kief Wood could provide both friction and fuel. Iron sharpens Iron. And for Blake, he is in perpetual prove-it mode.

It’s a prove-it season for Casey too, especially for him since we just saw his protege and offensive coach Nurse home a title for the Raptors. Gotta sting a bit. He needs to be less stubborn, predictable and more creative. Figure out an offense where Blake, Luke n Weggie can all get theirs.

The FO is trying a hard left towards youth, length and toughness. They also added win-a-bit more vets if healthy types in Rose and Kief. On balance, there’s enough new in the stew that should keep us diehards slurping some many flavors of Pistons Kool Aid.

[Sparma]

Thanks Oracle.

My recollection is that various sources, including 538, put the Pistons pretty low last year too at about 38, 39. They were too low, but not far off. I do think the Pistons have actually dropped this year for some early prognosticators, surprisingly.

Maybe another factor in the low early guesses is that Griffin, Reggie J, and Rose were above their career 3 pt averages last season, Blake by 2%, Reggie by 3.6%, and Rose by 6.6% (!!). And those gaps, already considerable, would be greater if we compared their '18-19 season average to their career averages at the beginning of the season, i.e., without including last season's significantly improved shooting. Did they truly learn to shoot to those high levels last year, or can some regression reasonably be expected? Some early prognosticators may be persuaded of the latter.

I hope that Blake can stay around the 35% level, down from his 36% last year. Maybe Reggie got more time to shoot from 3 last year than he had earlier, making a natural progression to his new role, so that he can remain around last year's 36.9%. Rose deviated most dramatically from his career norm, and gives me the most cause for concern, especially because he'll likely be going up against 1st stringers more often this coming season.

Very good point Sparma: While rebounds have been recorded forever, oddly blocks have not.

In fact, the NBA didn't start recording blocks and steals until the 1973/1974 season! So I'm sure Wilt and Russell both eclipsed those marks during their HOF careers, and maybe others as well.

However, as you said, during the time those stats have been recorded and looking at the talent we've seen at the center position, it's still an amazing accomplishment. But MAJOR props to you for bringing that historical insight to the forum because I haven't heard any of the talking heads even mention it... One more reason this forum maintains value over a lot of other places.

Low Expectations: I also think a twist on your thinking above is: What did those outlets project for the Pistons last year?

Look, I get why they rate us low. Until we make some noise, and until someone on this roster not named Blake Griffin blows up, I can't blame them. Why stick your neck out saying the Pistons will make the playoffs when one injury could derail them into the lottery?

It falls to us to make our best judgements. It's a big responsibility, but that's why we're Piston Fans 

[Oracle]

I like the first trade idea in this article, but at least this guy is thinking.

Trades the Detroit Pistons Need to Make This Off-Season
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BTW, I like the Pistons signings of Withers & Hall(Exhibit Contracts), both of whom looked good in SL. It's a really smart move because it ties them to us in case they develop or we have a dire need.


Exhibit Contract: An Exhibit 10 contract, according to Slam Online, is a one-year, minimum salary contract that can be converted into a two-way contract or allows the organization to option them to their Gatorade League affiliate.

[Oracle]

Very good point Sparma: While rebounds have been recorded forever, oddly blocks have not.

In fact, the NBA didn't start recording blocks and steals until the 1973/1974 season! So I'm sure Wilt and Russell both eclipsed those marks during their HOF careers, and maybe others as well.

However, as you said, during the time those stats have been recorded and looking at the talent we've seen at the center position, it's still an amazing accomplishment. But MAJOR props to you for bringing that historical insight to the forum because I haven't heard any of the talking heads even mention it... One more reason this forum maintains value over a lot of other places.

Low Expectations: I also think a twist on your thinking above is: What did those outlets project for the Pistons last year?

Look, I get why they rate us low. Until we make some noise, and until someone on this roster not named Blake Griffin blows up, I can't blame them. Why stick your neck out saying the Pistons will make the playoffs when one injury could derail them into the lottery?

It falls to us to make our best judgements. It's a big responsibility, but that's why we're Piston Fans 

[Sparma]

Vince Ellis on Andre Drummond:
"Only player in league history with four seasons of 1,000 points, 1,000 rebounds, 100 blocks and 100 steals." (Here, Oracle cited something of the sort.)

Possible, but highly unlikely. Wilt's reported as blocking HoFer Walt Bellamy ten times in a row. Listening to some stuff on the old NBA, I seem to remember he got a bunch of few steals too (before these were officially recorded). I'd be surprised if Wilt didn't rack up Andre's stat line during most if not all of his NBA career. Bill Russell probably too. And maybe Nate Thurmond. More cautiously, and likely more accurately: Drummond's the first NBA player with recorded totals of ….

Still, contra Don, it's a heck of an achievement, and a mark of him being a very good player.

But 40 mil per year? Ouch. Maybe that's will indeed become the new normal, but the pay to production (WS) ratio I've devised suggests that it's unlikely that he'd outperform that contract, something he did do during the regular season last year.

And then those surprisingly low win projections, eg, by 538. Did they have us around 36 wins? I see us higher, but …. Last year, I used a single team NBA Pass, so I don't have a great sense of the NBA as a whole. A few factors come to mind as explanations of the low projections: a) even though I liked our draft, I don't see a lot of help for this year. Evidently, the experts are also skeptical regarding immediate help, b) even though it seems to me we've improved, evidently there's a sense that others have improved more, at least in the Central. Was it a detnews story today, including an assessment by cbs, that puts only the off-season of Cleveland behind ours? c) I'm guessing that Vegas and 538 are viewing the Pistons as having a relatively high injury risk this year, with Griffin, Rose, and Jackson. I find the early projects surprising, nevertheless.

[Oracle]

DX/Murph: A while back I was really not liking a team led by Harris and the often injured Avery Bradley.

I complained early and often about them, I didn't see Harris as a #1 option and I knew that Bradley was going to get injured as soon as the wind changed direction, he was at least twice the injury threat as Blake or Reggie ever were. So I didn't like the team and was very down on our prospects long term.

I was in the minority and considered a hater on the team, which was true at the time, but just like now, if you have reservations about the team, now is the time to vent about them.

When the season rolled around, the time for me venting was over, on opening day they presented the Detroit Pistons and I fell in line and rooted for them, living and dying with each win and loss. 

So I'm not concerned that Don & Phillip complain as they do, I understand some of their concerns, but disagree with most of their solutions. That's normal, but hopefully they'll get behind their team and root for us winning when the season starts, even though they'll likely predict them losing 

[Murph]

DX...I appreciate your efforts at peace making. But in response to your well thought out post, I would say 3 things. 1) Blake Griffin's $39 million a year contract is going to expire right around the time Kennard will need to be resigned, giving us a lot of cap space.

2) The cap never shrinks; it always expands, giving us more cap space as time goes on.

3) $40 million a year, might seem outrageous for Drummond now. But in a few years, it will not seem remarkable. Take Griffin's contract as an example. When Griffin initially signed his contract for 5 years at $175 million, it seemed ridiculous. Two years later, players like Kris Middleton and Tobias Harris are making more than Griffin. This is not to run down Middleton and Harris; both are fine players. Rather, it is to but into perspective "outrageous" contracts, as time goes on.

Whoa fellows, there's a middle ground for The Pistons that's not being looked at with open minds. The number one thing is, the team is getting better, much better and it's only been one complete season!

Don and Phillip Boy should stop living in the past because you guys seem to only think in negatives...neither Greg Monroe or Jason Maxiell were the paint companions, worthy mentors, or big men that worked on improving their games like Blake Griffin...this is the first opportunity Drummond has had to learn and flourish as a basketball player since high school!!! Not only were the players not there but, the coaching was absent also. Blame Gores for that.

Murph, I'm on the same page as you when it comes to recognizing the great athletic ability of Drummond and where he's destined to be viewed by his careers end but, $40 million a year?! That's unrealistic in a landscape with a shrinking CAP and not an expanding one. Imagine this; Doumbouya turns out to be someone between the Greek Freak and Siakam, how do we keep him? Kennard, and Brown show All-Star games that bring distinction to the "D" and at least one of 6' 8" Euro shooters become indispensable, then what do we do with our payroll? Don and Phillip Boy are correct in limiting how much Drummond should be paid...Big Ben and Laimbeer weren't paid more than any Piston when they were champions! Not even top three on the payroll and they were essential contributors.

Solution? Keep rooting for the home team and enjoy the upcoming season, see who belongs and who can't cut the mustard, and at the end of the day if Drummond chooses to price himself out of Detroit, so be it. That's something Monroe taught him.

[deusXango]

Whoa fellows, there's a middle ground for The Pistons that's not being looked at with open minds. The number one thing is, the team is getting better, much better and it's only been one complete season!

Don and Phillip Boy should stop living in the past because you guys seem to only think in negatives...neither Greg Monroe or Jason Maxiell were the paint companions, worthy mentors, or big men that worked on improving their games like Blake Griffin...this is the first opportunity Drummond has had to learn and flourish as a basketball player since high school!!! Not only were the players not there but, the coaching was absent also. Blame Gores for that.

Murph, I'm on the same page as you when it comes to recognizing the great athletic ability of Drummond and where he's destined to be viewed by his careers end but, $40 million a year?! That's unrealistic in a landscape with a shrinking CAP and not an expanding one. Imagine this; Doumbouya turns out to be someone between the Greek Freak and Siakam, how do we keep him? Kennard, and Brown show All-Star games that bring distinction to the "D" and at least one of 6' 8" Euro shooters become indispensable, then what do we do with our payroll? Don and Phillip Boy are correct in limiting how much Drummond should be paid...Big Ben and Laimbeer weren't paid more than any Piston when they were champions! Not even top three on the payroll and they were essential contributors.

Solution? Keep rooting for the home team and enjoy the upcoming season, see who belongs and who can't cut the mustard, and at the end of the day if Drummond chooses to price himself out of Detroit, so be it. That's something Monroe taught him.

[Murph]

I am looking forward to Drummond resigning with the Pistons after next season.  I'm thinking 5 years at $200 million!  


And I'm going to enjoy watching Drummond go down as the Pistons greatest center and one of the top 5 or 10 rebounders of all time.  

And I hope Don and Phil are totally miserable watching Drummond's azz for the next 6 years at least!  

[Phil-Good]

Don't care what historical records Drummonds holds. Don't care if he leads the league in Rebounding for the next 100 years. Does it equal winning? NO! Drummonds is A loser. Drummonds is A 4ht wheel making Max money.

Drummonds is A role player... A bigger Tristan Thompson. A younger DeAndre Jordan without the shot blocking ability. A poor-mans Dwight Howard but less of A azz. Drummonds is A low-I.Q. role players. A Dunker-dancer who celebrates A regular season win with water bottle showers like he just won A championship.

Remember how Toronto took on K.Lewnard personality? No celebrating after 1 win. Still more work to put in. That's the mentality of A winner.


Remember how Ben Wallace came to Detroit and the culture changed over night? That's winners.

Drummonds is A loser. Always has been, always will be.

[cool breeze]

People want to trade him for whatever they can get, and others just want to trade him period. They believe he isn't living up to his contract and his numbers are accidental or like chinese food, you're left wanting more in about a hour.

IMO, all of that is missing the point and the real problem, which is this: Why haven't the Pistons built a team around Drummond to maximize what he does bring?

When you have a historically good big man, you'd think people would stop obsessing about what he can't do and focus on what he does do and do better than anyone in the history of the game.

Drummond holds two historical records:
1. Worst FT shooting mark in history: Yes, that's a bad one, but it's one he successfully obliterated, and is now a player you can keep on the floor in crunch time.

2. Most seasons with 1000 points, 1000 rebounds, 100 blocks and 100 steals: Wow, you don't trade this monster, you find players that compliment him, shooters, scorers and playmakers = WINS! No player has ever had four such seasons until Drummond.

The fault dear Brutus in not in Drummond, but in the Front Office... hopefully that's changing!

Wow this post is amazing Oracle. Why would any sane person build a team around one of the worst performers in this past year's playoffs? Those stats mean nothing Oracle. A player could get 35 rebounds each game in the regular season and still hurt their team. What the stats don't show is how Drummond's overall game hurts his team chances of "winning". AD doesn't have a clue how to play in any NBA rotation system. How does he handle pick and roll plays? Why is it that he switches onto a guard on the perimeter when that guard is already properly guarded by a player who has worked to get through the screen? AD has one of the worst overall basketball IQs that I have ever witnessed at almost any level. He makes up for his mistakes at times but often doesn't make that extra effort to use his athleticism. But how can a team win when a guard like Ish Smith is forced to take AD's man because AD committed another blunder within the rotation system? AD likes to get a steal on the perimeter and go coast to coast to show off. But by being out of position around the 3 point line, AD leaves the paint wide open or forces a small guard to try to get a defensive rebound. This is what I have seen every season AD has been a Piston. And what about his outlet passes? How many times has he thrown a lazy pass to an opponent who then makes an easy uncontested layup?

What bothers me most is not AD but fans who actually do not watch the games but study the stat sheet and then make a statement about how great AD is and how the front office should be building the team around him. But I am thinking you are trying to be funny here and maybe baiting fans who want above anything else concerning the Pistons for management to trade AD this season and not consider ever giving him anything more than 12 mil a season for 3 years. That is about what he is actually worth as a bench player who helps the 2nd unit in certain situations. He just makes too many mental mistakes to ever be a consistent even average decision maker on the court. We need more high basketball IQ players Oracle. AD has been part of a long losing depressing era of Piston basketball.

How can the front office build any contenting type team when they have placed all their eggs in one basket relating to two players who play in the front court? The winning teams put their money in the guard and small forward spots. They try to find big men who are defensive orientated to fill out the roster. If on the other hand we had Anthony Davis, then I would want to build a team around him for sure. He is big, smart, multi talented on both offense and defense. AD is a below average defender and a below average offensive player. Plus he is always targeted by opposing coaches for being a day late and a dollar short when it comes to keeping track of where his assigned man is located on the floor. That is why the Bucks circled AD on the blackboard in the locker room as the guy they were going to pound into the pavement. Lopez did what the coach told him to do. He did it with confidence knowing that AD would be defending him. AD spent a lot of time on the bench where he belonged in that series.

The other guy that Piston management needs to move is Reggie Jackson. He would have been the biggest target to exploit for the Bucks if AD had been sick or injured. RJ is another horrible losing type defender. We need hard nosed in your face never give up players like Dennis Rodman or Ben Wallace. They fit in a team full of the top rated guards who were the team leaders. Those big men followed their leaders who were smart as hell. That is how you win. You win with smart superior players.

[Oracle]

Check out this video, FiveThirtyEight has us not making the playoffs, but Jalen Rose believes we will, but as the 8th seed. I don't agree with either, but I can understand that industry analysts have little faith in the Pistons, with good reason.

Also note that regular season projections are not always a prediction of how a team will perform in the playoffs. As Jalen explains, some teams will finish lower in seeding due to load management, etc., but may go deeper in the playoffs when ready.

One thing I've noticed is that in past years load management was mentioned but not seriously. Pop has used it for years when Duncan & company aged, but now, it's just talked about like it's a normal part of the game. Teams and players no longer feel any obligation to ticket holders who pay to see stars and get screwed when they're not playing.

[Oracle]

People want to trade him for whatever they can get, and others just want to trade him period. They believe he isn't living up to his contract and his numbers are accidental or like chinese food, you're left wanting more in about a hour.

IMO, all of that is missing the point and the real problem, which is this: Why haven't the Pistons built a team around Drummond to maximize what he does bring?

When you have a historically good big man, you'd think people would stop obsessing about what he can't do and focus on what he does do and do better than anyone in the history of the game.

Drummond holds two historical records:
1. Worst FT shooting mark in history: Yes, that's a bad one, but it's one he successfully obliterated, and is now a player you can keep on the floor in crunch time.

2. Most seasons with 1000 points, 1000 rebounds, 100 blocks and 100 steals: Wow, you don't trade this monster, you find players that compliment him, shooters, scorers and playmakers = WINS! No player has ever had four such seasons until Drummond.

The fault dear Brutus in not in Drummond, but in the Front Office... hopefully that's changing!

[Murph]

I'm not ready to give up on Thon Maker just yet.  Yes, he often looked awkward and clueless on the floor last year.   And big men, particularly big men built like Maker take a long time to develop.

On the upside, he's 7'1 with arms like a spider, and he athletic, energetic and enthusiastic.  IMO, Maker needs to scale down his game, like Andre Drummond.  Maker needs to bag the 3 point shooting entirely, stop playing PF, and play center exclusively.  Then he needs to focus on his defense and shot blocking, particularly his weak-side shot blocking.  With those arms, there's no telling how many shots Maker could block a game, if that were his main focus.

I think Maker could eventually develop into a very valuable player. He should not be included in trades as a toss-in.

[lemonpen]

With our back against the wall, CAP wise, and our draft picks have been from nil to meh, all due to SVG's ineptitude, let's hold onto our first round draft picks (at all costs if neccessary) and strive to make that blockbuster trade BEFORE the trade deadline. There's nothing magical about waiting until the season is halfway done but, there's something stupid to it.

WHO TO HOLD ONTO
Doumbouya
Brown
Mykhailiuk
Wood
Griffin
Drummond
Morris
This is my opinion to allow continued growth for our young'uns who wouldn't get the opportunity to grow if the player I'm lusting for is obtained...Bradley Beal. I love the potential of Kennard, but Brown's is greater and Thomas is down in the pecking order right now.

Before Reggie is hurt and hamstring the Pistons still again, trade him A.S.A.P. along with Galloway...Kennard will sweeten this deal. I'm avoiding the temptation to include Doumbouya as well as a first round pick, however I'd part with the pick before the player. Why am I placing such a high value on Doumbouya and Wood? Gervin was "light in the ass" for those that can remember watching him play, and certainly Durant hasn't faded from memory, another "light in the ass" player...we've got to stop looking for reasons to exclude players from playing their game. Tayshaun was "light in the ass" also but, one hell of a defensive force. Sekou is an end-to-end player who is all out and should develop in Detroit and not someplace else. He's a hell of a player until he proves he's not!! Let's wait for the proof, one way or another, but until then, let's not give up on him due to negative judgements (he's "raw," he's young, he's a Euro).

Brown has proven that he's a starter so allow him to continue starting...as a 6' 5" defensive PG (poor mans Westbrook?) with an aggressive offensive game. We weren't a superstar perimeter player short of competing last year, we need shooting and length; we've got Snell, Svi, Morris, and Sekou this year. Not bad, certainly better than what we had last year. As long as the offense is run through Griffin, our PG only needs to be a sound ballhandler, a reliable scorer, and an aggressive defender. Our PG doesn't have to be the best P & R guard in the league, just capable and a team player!

c- Drummond/Wood
pf-Griffin/Morris
sf-Snell/Sekou
sg-Beal/Svi
pg-Brown/Rose

A nice mix of veteran players and developing youth...players that can make the playoffs and with good health, possibly advance to the second round.

TRADE PROPOSAL
Jackson, Galloway, Kennard, Thomas, Maker, 1st round draft pick, a couple of 2nd round draft picks, and a 3rd teams involvement if necessary to Washington for Beal.

Please poke holes in this and suggest a trade that'd give us a better roster balance (Washington fans are excluded.)

Bradley Beal is a fabulous player, who could really help.  He is an All Star at two positions.  But with that said, his contract status (final year) makes a trade of ANY kind an all-or-nothing proposal for US, exactly like Toronto risked with Leonard.  Doing the deal could result in major regression after 2019-2020 having surrendered a good kid and 1st rounder.  Is our current roster so good that Bradley Beal IS the difference which gets us into the Finals.
JMO but I don't see him sticking around once free agency arrives.

[deusXango]

DX...that is way too much to give up for Beal, IMO.  I would have given up that group, plus Snell for Westbrook.  But Beal isn't Westbrook.

With our back against the wall, CAP wise, and our draft picks have been from nil to meh, all due to SVG's ineptitude, let's hold onto our first round draft picks (at all costs if neccessary) and strive to make that blockbuster trade BEFORE the trade deadline. There's nothing magical about waiting until the season is halfway done but, there's something stupid to it.

WHO TO HOLD ONTO
Doumbouya
Brown
Mykhailiuk
Wood
Griffin
Drummond
Morris
This is my opinion to allow continued growth for our young'uns who wouldn't get the opportunity to grow if the player I'm lusting for is obtained...Bradley Beal. I love the potential of Kennard, but Brown's is greater and Thomas is down in the pecking order right now.

Before Reggie is hurt and hamstring the Pistons still again, trade him A.S.A.P. along with Galloway...Kennard will sweeten this deal. I'm avoiding the temptation to include Doumbouya as well as a first round pick, however I'd part with the pick before the player. Why am I placing such a high value on Doumbouya and Wood? Gervin was "light in the ass" for those that can remember watching him play, and certainly Durant hasn't faded from memory, another "light in the ass" player...we've got to stop looking for reasons to exclude players from playing their game. Tayshaun was "light in the ass" also but, one hell of a defensive force. Sekou is an end-to-end player who is all out and should develop in Detroit and not someplace else. He's a hell of a player until he proves he's not!! Let's wait for the proof, one way or another, but until then, let's not give up on him due to negative judgements (he's "raw," he's young, he's a Euro).

Brown has proven that he's a starter so allow him to continue starting...as a 6' 5" defensive PG (poor mans Westbrook?) with an aggressive offensive game. We weren't a superstar perimeter player short of competing last year, we need shooting and length; we've got Snell, Svi, Morris, and Sekou this year. Not bad, certainly better than what we had last year. As long as the offense is run through Griffin, our PG only needs to be a sound ballhandler, a reliable scorer, and an aggressive defender. Our PG doesn't have to be the best P & R guard in the league, just capable and a team player!

c- Drummond/Wood
pf-Griffin/Morris
sf-Snell/Sekou
sg-Beal/Svi
pg-Brown/Rose

A nice mix of veteran players and developing youth...players that can make the playoffs and with good health, possibly advance to the second round.

TRADE PROPOSAL
Jackson, Galloway, Kennard, Thomas, Maker, 1st round draft pick, a couple of 2nd round draft picks, and a 3rd teams involvement if necessary to Washington for Beal.

Please poke holes in this and suggest a trade that'd give us a better roster balance (Washington fans are excluded.)

Murph, what would you propose to trade that'd grab the Wizards attention and not let go? This is a "pick of the litter" player who'd move the needle for Detroit. Beal would be a great teammate and brings what Casey wants.

[Murph]

DX...that is way too much to give up for Beal, IMO.  I would have given up that group, plus Snell for Westbrook.  But Beal isn't Westbrook.

With our back against the wall, CAP wise, and our draft picks have been from nil to meh, all due to SVG's ineptitude, let's hold onto our first round draft picks (at all costs if neccessary) and strive to make that blockbuster trade BEFORE the trade deadline. There's nothing magical about waiting until the season is halfway done but, there's something stupid to it.

WHO TO HOLD ONTO
Doumbouya
Brown
Mykhailiuk
Wood
Griffin
Drummond
Morris
This is my opinion to allow continued growth for our young'uns who wouldn't get the opportunity to grow if the player I'm lusting for is obtained...Bradley Beal. I love the potential of Kennard, but Brown's is greater and Thomas is down in the pecking order right now.

Before Reggie is hurt and hamstring the Pistons still again, trade him A.S.A.P. along with Galloway...Kennard will sweeten this deal. I'm avoiding the temptation to include Doumbouya as well as a first round pick, however I'd part with the pick before the player. Why am I placing such a high value on Doumbouya and Wood? Gervin was "light in the ass" for those that can remember watching him play, and certainly Durant hasn't faded from memory, another "light in the ass" player...we've got to stop looking for reasons to exclude players from playing their game. Tayshaun was "light in the ass" also but, one hell of a defensive force. Sekou is an end-to-end player who is all out and should develop in Detroit and not someplace else. He's a hell of a player until he proves he's not!! Let's wait for the proof, one way or another, but until then, let's not give up on him due to negative judgements (he's "raw," he's young, he's a Euro).

Brown has proven that he's a starter so allow him to continue starting...as a 6' 5" defensive PG (poor mans Westbrook?) with an aggressive offensive game. We weren't a superstar perimeter player short of competing last year, we need shooting and length; we've got Snell, Svi, Morris, and Sekou this year. Not bad, certainly better than what we had last year. As long as the offense is run through Griffin, our PG only needs to be a sound ballhandler, a reliable scorer, and an aggressive defender. Our PG doesn't have to be the best P & R guard in the league, just capable and a team player!

c- Drummond/Wood
pf-Griffin/Morris
sf-Snell/Sekou
sg-Beal/Svi
pg-Brown/Rose

A nice mix of veteran players and developing youth...players that can make the playoffs and with good health, possibly advance to the second round.

TRADE PROPOSAL
Jackson, Galloway, Kennard, Thomas, Maker, 1st round draft pick, a couple of 2nd round draft picks, and a 3rd teams involvement if necessary to Washington for Beal.

Please poke holes in this and suggest a trade that'd give us a better roster balance (Washington fans are excluded.)

[deusXango]

With our back against the wall, CAP wise, and our draft picks have been from nil to meh, all due to SVG's ineptitude, let's hold onto our first round draft picks (at all costs if neccessary) and strive to make that blockbuster trade BEFORE the trade deadline. There's nothing magical about waiting until the season is halfway done but, there's something stupid to it.

WHO TO HOLD ONTO
Doumbouya
Brown
Mykhailiuk
Wood
Griffin
Drummond
Morris
This is my opinion to allow continued growth for our young'uns who wouldn't get the opportunity to grow if the player I'm lusting for is obtained...Bradley Beal. I love the potential of Kennard, but Brown's is greater and Thomas is down in the pecking order right now.

Before Reggie is hurt and hamstring the Pistons still again, trade him A.S.A.P. along with Galloway...Kennard will sweeten this deal. I'm avoiding the temptation to include Doumbouya as well as a first round pick, however I'd part with the pick before the player. Why am I placing such a high value on Doumbouya and Wood? Gervin was "light in the ass" for those that can remember watching him play, and certainly Durant hasn't faded from memory, another "light in the ass" player...we've got to stop looking for reasons to exclude players from playing their game. Tayshaun was "light in the ass" also but, one hell of a defensive force. Sekou is an end-to-end player who is all out and should develop in Detroit and not someplace else. He's a hell of a player until he proves he's not!! Let's wait for the proof, one way or another, but until then, let's not give up on him due to negative judgements (he's "raw," he's young, he's a Euro).

Brown has proven that he's a starter so allow him to continue starting...as a 6' 5" defensive PG (poor mans Westbrook?) with an aggressive offensive game. We weren't a superstar perimeter player short of competing last year, we need shooting and length; we've got Snell, Svi, Morris, and Sekou this year. Not bad, certainly better than what we had last year. As long as the offense is run through Griffin, our PG only needs to be a sound ballhandler, a reliable scorer, and an aggressive defender. Our PG doesn't have to be the best P & R guard in the league, just capable and a team player!

c- Drummond/Wood
pf-Griffin/Morris
sf-Snell/Sekou
sg-Beal/Svi
pg-Brown/Rose

A nice mix of veteran players and developing youth...players that can make the playoffs and with good health, possibly advance to the second round.

TRADE PROPOSAL
Jackson, Galloway, Kennard, Thomas, Maker, 1st round draft pick, a couple of 2nd round draft picks, and a 3rd teams involvement if necessary to Washington for Beal.

Please poke holes in this and suggest a trade that'd give us a better roster balance (Washington fans are excluded.)

[Oracle]

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