Payrolls

[Sparma]

Having now looked at the Lakers' payroll, I'm hard pressed to see how they could trade for an expensive veteran this summer.  Ball and Ingram (trade value down), come in together, to my surprise, to around 16 mil, but that's about it for sizable salaries, other than LeBron.

Taking another look at the Pistons' payroll, what strikes me is Drummond having a player option for 2020-21 for nearly 29 mil.  That's a lot of money, and I think many here don't think he'd be worth that.  And yet, I would not be surprised if he refused that player option a year from now.  By the beginning of the 2020 season, he'll be 27 years old.  He's been a paragon of good health, but he's also put a ton of wear and tear on his body (btw, stop jumping to block those shots when play is dead, Andre; not worth it).  He may well decide that's his best shot at another max deal.  He may even think that if he signs a 4 year max deal elsewhere, he might be in line at 31 for one more.

My prediction: either (a) the Pistons resign him within a year for the 5 year max deal only they can give (but please no super max!) or (b) he opts out at the end of this season and signs a 4 year (lower) max elsewhere.

And why did the team offer AD that player option in the first place? No way was he turning down their max offer at that time. I suspect that was a Gores sweetener. At this point, the biggest chance of AD exercising the player option next year is if he's coming off an injury. The inclusion of the player option's another bad contract move by the Gores/ SVG team.

[Sparma]

Here's the source of the Drummond rumor: https://fadeawayworld.net/2019/05/19/5-nba-stars-the-lakers-can-land-if-they-include-their-4-draft-pick/

Probably too good to be true, I agree.

I could see the Lakers going for Drummond, but it's sounds like they're pursuing a bunch of options apart from Anthony Davis, including Bradley Beal. If they could somehow trade for Beal AND Drummond, that would be advantageous for them, but I doubt they have the resources (in matching salaries) to pull that off. They could either make a big trade this summer, and hope to sign Davis next summer, or, if they decide to go all out this summer, it'd probably need to be a FA signing like Jimmy Butler, along with a big trade.

If Phil-Good's right about Drummond's trade value, I can't see Gores/ the Pistons going for that kind of return (in agreement with BallinD). I'd hope Stefanski would step in if the Fadeaway return were offered.

A printed idea allows one to dream. Until coming to one's senses.

Fadeaway World (hardly the most reputable source) proposes Drummond to LA for :Trade Package: Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, 4th Pick"

I'd go for that trade.  The problem is that the Lakers would need to add some serious salary to make for a regulation match, and I'd think not all of it could come in the form of 1 year contract.  That's where the thing likely would fall apart.

I think such a trade makes sense for the Lakers IF they could reasonably expect to sign the other AD as FA the following year, as I think they could.    

The numbers don't add up.

Having said that, we'd have our PG and SG of the future and a possible great pick. The Lakers will go for something similar, but if they added Moritz Wagner to that mix, I'd like it even more.

The Lakers are all about right now, and if they can snag two stars to team with LeBron, they're going to have to part with some good players.

Sparma, do you have a link to that rumor?

FYI: This is interesting and so true.

With Irving, what's the point of signing a Robin if you don't have a Batman: Kyrie Irving Rumors: Teams 'More Wary' of PG After End of Celtics' Season

Because he's clearly been exposed as not being capable of being the Man!

[Oracle]

Fadeaway World (hardly the most reputable source) proposes Drummond to LA for :Trade Package: Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, 4th Pick"

I'd go for that trade.  The problem is that the Lakers would need to add some serious salary to make for a regulation match, and I'd think not all of it could come in the form of 1 year contract.  That's where the thing likely would fall apart.

I think such a trade makes sense for the Lakers IF they could reasonably expect to sign the other AD as FA the following year, as I think they could.    

The numbers don't add up.

Having said that, we'd have our PG and SG of the future and a possible great pick. The Lakers will go for something similar, but if they added Moritz Wagner to that mix, I'd like it even more.

The Lakers are all about right now, and if they can snag two stars to team with LeBron, they're going to have to part with some good players.

Sparma, do you have a link to that rumor?

FYI: This is interesting and so true.

With Irving, what's the point of signing a Robin if you don't have a Batman: Kyrie Irving Rumors: Teams 'More Wary' of PG After End of Celtics' Season

Because he's clearly been exposed as not being capable of being the Man!

[Phil-Good]

Fadeaway World (hardly the most reputable source) proposes Drummond to LA for :Trade Package: Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, 4th Pick"

I'd go for that trade.  The problem is that the Lakers would need to add some serious salary to make for a regulation match, and I'd think not all of it could come in the form of 1 year contract.  That's where the thing likely would fall apart.

I think such a trade makes sense for the Lakers IF they could reasonably expect to sign the other AD as FA the following year, as I think they could.    

The Lakers would be certified STUPID to give up that much for Andre Drummnds. Drummnds is only worth A solid player and A late pick. But teams around the league are desperate like Detroit and would overpay for A player that won't change your championship fait.

[BallinD]

Sparma, that trade sounds enticing though I doubt LA would go for it and pretty sure Gores would throw a hissy fit and nix it.

It would allow us to rebuild-on-the-fly and possibly get better in one fell swoop.

The ability to perhaps platoon Lonzo n Weggie and with the 4th frp we could snag a great wing and use our 15th on a big, then go out and sign Kevon Looney who has been solid for GS or Cool fave Eric Moreland. None of the teams still standing in these playoffs has a great or dominating big - - though Drum might disagree in the case of Lopez, The Big Hurt - - and this kind of shows us that the Drum train as a dominant max-contract big paired with our other franchise big may not be the way to go.

On a side note It could open up a world of possibilities and energize the Stones.

[Sparma]

Fadeaway World (hardly the most reputable source) proposes Drummond to LA for :Trade Package: Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, 4th Pick"

I'd go for that trade. The problem is that the Lakers would need to add some serious salary to make for a regulation match, and I'd think not all of it could come in the form of 1 year contract. That's where the thing likely would fall apart.

I think such a trade makes sense for the Lakers IF they could reasonably expect to sign the other AD as FA the following year, as I think they could.

[cool breeze]

 "But those clever agents can create a real hero with stats it appears." - Don

This is very funny, but I have a one word answer for you... Darko! He didn't have a damn stat to use, but he was hyped beyond any stat hyped player could possibly be hyped. 

Don't you get it? Some players are ultra athletic, the ones that aren't have to learn other tricks to accomplish their goals. If you've got the Logo or Zeke in your front office, you'll rely on analytics a lot less. If you don't you'll rely on them a bit more, but the final decision is made by a human and that means the eye test and their gut, which is the way it should be.

As for Drummond, while we want to do what's best for the Pistons, you just want to take wild chances.

I don't care if they move Drummond, Blake and Reggie all in one package, that's not the point, the return on that investment is the point. I sure hope you guys don't play the stock market with this kind of logic.

It's not if we should move Drummond, it's when and for what. Do you seriously think they aren't looking at moving anybody on this team if the payoff is right?

You sound like a casual fan wanting us to trade Reggie for Giannis straight up. Sounds like a good idea that anybody would take, but it's unrealistic. To move any player requires thought and preparation and following the rules, you can't just WANT something.

Obviously you didn't understand my post Oracle. You have gone on a rant that makes no sense based on what I have said. It was my friend who has worked in the NBA who made the statement that agents are the drivers on the stat craze. It all sounds so smart. Anyone can try to create an outcome as long as you don't plug in the details. But doing this the agents create "highlight type players". I don't think many GMs base any decision on this stuff with perhaps the exception of the Detroit Pistons.

This is another subject but I respectfully disagree with Sparma relating to how analytics can be helpful in the medical field if you are a physician or nurse at least. As smaller hospitals have been purchased by huge companies your rest of dying in the hospital from basic mistakes have greatly increased. But those administrators in the big chains keep on making changes using analytics to reduce costs and improve efficiency. So your PCP who has been in practice for 20 years is now forced to go into a room where the all knowing administrators tell the Dr. that he is not seeing enough patients. You have to spend 5 minutes per patient. What is wrong with you? This is actually happening. Too much of that is going now in medicine and patients are dying because of administrators trying to run hospitals that way. My wife is an RN and my brother is a physician. They provide the details that no administrator wants to hear. The old eye test is almost a thing of the past in medicine. the young health care professionals never have time to actually look at a patient because they are busy looking at their computer. Paper charting is much preferred by physicians than computer charting. The detached attitude by some of the young people scares both of my family members.

How did you come up with that scenario as if anyone who has ever watched any basketball would come up with Reggie for Giannis. I know that was an attempt to show how stupid I am but Oracle I have been a high school coach, played ball in college and on a good high school team. I know what I am talking about relating to stats and how much stats can help a coach. They really don't if coaches are not sleeping during practice or real games.Stats are used by coaches to motivate the under achieving players who come in at halftime for a tongue lashing. Can't do that in the NBA. I have not been talking about "unrealistic" ideas. You are unrealistic of the dire straights the Pistons are at now as they have been for the past 11 years.

It is time to remove Andre Drummond from the Piston franchise. His current value is what it is - very little. Do you think next season it will be higher so management is smart waiting because of a timing issue? No my gut feeling is that this owner will not budge regardless of how much AD might suck as a player next season or the season after that. He is family. Whoever the Piston's GM might be, it is forbidden to mention AD in any trade. That is what bugs me the most. And you should get it as well by this late date. This owner has coddled AD to the point that no other NBA team wants to touch him. A lot of us have brought up examples of this open display of love this owner has for AD. He has meddled with the team when AD's teammates had had enough of both AD and RJ. The owner put the hammer down. No more player only meetings. Who was behind the player only meeting? Marcus Morris you say. I will trade his ass then. How dare any player talk badly about AD or RJ. AD loves RJ and RJ is off the list of potential offerings. This is a soap opera Oracle. This is no way to run a NBA team. This owner has tried to build a team around a player who just got embarrassed in the playoffs. His value is way down now as if it wasn't before the playoffs. Analytics to support AD's value will be meaningless to other GMs around the league. They don't want him and especially do not want to play him what Tom Gores offered.

The Pistons have made no movement to improve the roster. Reading the depressing article in the Detroit News should not make you feel very good. Very little can be done this year because of contracts. How did things get that way? Why don't you ask that question instead of trying to insult me. We have waited for 11 years to see some progress. Should we should be patient another 11 years until AD retires? Now is the time to take action. There is a slim chance that some team might take on his salary this summer for perhaps a 2nd round pick if we take one of their slugs. But I would do it because things are not going to get any better. I am not a casual fan. I am a life long Piston fan and I smell your bullshit Oracle. You have no idea what in hell you are talking about on this subject. All the stat things I read on this forum makes me ill. It shows me too many fans are gullible. Fans on Golden State and other high flying teams are not studying analytics. They see the Smash Brothers and Draymon Green play real basketball not fake basketball that we watch.

Using the Darko situation is funny. Joe Dumars never did have a stat to base his bogus decision to draft Darko at the number 2 position in the draft. Maybe Joe liked the way Darko smoked cigarettes. Perhaps his chain smoking during dinner while Joe visited him overseas was the deal maker. It made no sense. Why did joe include Middleton as a throw in? Who can ever make sense of that?

The Piston brain trust is the culprit who play Russian Roulette on a yearly basis by delaying the hard decision to remove under performing players who have a special bond with the owner. The Pistons are not waiting for the right moment to get the strongest return on this investment. That is what I have been writing about Oracle. The value is not there and never will be there relating to AD, RJ, JL or LG. Everyone needs to let the owner know fans will not accept anymore nonsense. Nobody wants any of the players mentioned above. The return on investment is not going to be good. But if somehow the Pistons can just give them all away, we fans might possibly be able to move on and have hope that no additional bogus decisions will be make relating to players we watch. The time is now Oracle. Admit it. Give  Blake some young players he can teach before his knees give out. The Pistons lose but eventually win but getting high picks in the draft. If I am wrong then please tell me when the appropriate time might be to make some moves?

What is fascinating to me is that you are not pissed off Oracle. WTF and myself are pissed off. We are saying enough is enough. But you and others seem content with the status quo. Wait for the right moment as if there ever will be a right moment for this owner to do the right thing. You should be pointing fingers at Tom Gores not me or others who are calling him out. The Pistons are going nowhere. Other team are going somewhere upward. Doesn't that make you boil just a little bit? We are emotional. You and others are not. You call us stupid. Good for you.

[Phil-Good]

The Pistons should trad Jackson, A first round pick and another expiring contract for Mike Conley, or this guy or that guy. NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


The Pistons need to take their medicine and go into next season with basically the same roster. Be A team that holds on to it's chips until the right opportunity comes along.

No forcing anything. Take advantage of a team looking to unload good players for A salary dump situation. Keep the scouting team operation at A high level. Keep A lookout for young veterans.

Look for the right opportunity to dump Andre Drummonds. Look for the right trade situation to dump Reggie Jackson and his expiring contract. Same goes for All the expiring deals.

Don't rush the process. TRUST THE PROCESS! Don't trade for Mike Conley. But maybe trade that 15th pick for two first round picks and A second round pick! If you keep the 15th pick. Draft the next D.Mitchell or Greek Freak!

[Sparma]

Thanks Oracle. I've enjoyed reading your comments on analytics too.

Good points, Lemonpen, about the pervasiveness of analytics.

Don, I'd hoped for some rapprochement on the issue, but will settle for respectful disagreement.

They're simply stats and outcomes that are over analyzed and that's how I interpret them as simple stats.  How you look at them isn't how I look at them and thus I still don't subscribe to analytics.  

You know what you all can have a whole freaking team of AD's I'm done!

That comment alone shows that you're missing the point anybody is making, but you've made clear your opinion on this, so we'll respect it.

@Sparma: Very thoughtful description of things, and gave me some additional food for thought. None of this is straight forward, it's damn near rocket science to get things right.

There are people whose guts I trust over analytics, like Zeke, or Jerry West, they can smell good players, then there's others where I'd trust stats over their gut, like SVG.

You can't throw either out, but as I said, Drummond sits on the fence and causes both tests a lot of trouble

[lemonpen]

Keeps planes in the air, automobiles turning right with the steered wheel, undesireable medical outcomes lower, and so on.  Sport has taken a while to adopt a means of seeing the unseen, and establishing its relative value.


The thing is, when your house is on fire it may not seem important at the time that analytics is responsible for determining the quickest route to your home.

The fans question with Dre is does 25 mil mean there should be more seen than unseen, or not.

[Oracle]

 "But those clever agents can create a real hero with stats it appears." - Don

This is very funny, but I have a one word answer for you... Darko! He didn't have a damn stat to use, but he was hyped beyond any stat hyped player could possibly be hyped. 

Don't you get it? Some players are ultra athletic, the ones that aren't have to learn other tricks to accomplish their goals. If you've got the Logo or Zeke in your front office, you'll rely on analytics a lot less. If you don't you'll rely on them a bit more, but the final decision is made by a human and that means the eye test and their gut, which is the way it should be.

As for Drummond, while we want to do what's best for the Pistons, you just want to take wild chances.

I don't care if they move Drummond, Blake and Reggie all in one package, that's not the point, the return on that investment is the point. I sure hope you guys don't play the stock market with this kind of logic.

It's not if we should move Drummond, it's when and for what. Do you seriously think they aren't looking at moving anybody on this team if the payoff is right?

You sound like a casual fan wanting us to trade Reggie for Giannis straight up. Sounds like a good idea that anybody would take, but it's unrealistic. To move any player requires thought and preparation and following the rules, you can't just WANT something.

[cool breeze]

I was so happy to see Eric get playing time for Toronto. He has been in several games toward the end. Guess what it would have taken to sign Moreland? I looked his salary this season. According to Toronto's payroll, Moreland only makes eighty eight thousand plus some change. Moreland played well for the Pistons with the 2nd unit. Did Casey ever bother to watch game film from the previous season to know his players better and perhaps see something good in Moreland. I think he never looked because he put Jackson and Smith into the game in crunch time early in the regular season. That was beyond stupid knowing that both were a huge liability on the defensive end. Poor Blake Griffin. He makes a lot of money but is in purgatory after being traded to the Pistons. I am not saying Moreland is the best big man in the NBA but the Pistons were extremely weak in the painted area on defense.Moreland showed that he was a pretty good help defender in the paint. He got back quickly and didn't allow easy baskets. But of course we are all witnessing the world according to Dwane Casey. I cannot understand how he thinks. His players are not good 3 point shooters. There are no plays designed to feature the mid range game. There is a lot of scoring going on with the teams currently still playing that takes place inside the 3 point area. Casey has a one track mine. No deviation from stand in place and hope to get the ball from the dysfunctional guards so you can shoot it from beyond the 3 point line. Or get the ball to AD who is one of the worst offensive players in the league. That is some strategy. As nothing Casey believes in works for this team, he has to force Blake to charge into the paint against 5 players. Blake is earning his money now. Will he be able to play next season? If I were him, I might fake it and allow the ship to sink.

[cool breeze]

I think perhaps both Oracle and Murph are not die hard fans of Andre Drummond. It might be more that they do not believe he should be traded at this time. In fairness I think both have expressed that thought several times before. I believe there is no time to lose in moving AD now rather than later. If nothing else, AD has been a durable player who shows up and doesn't take games off like others. He is only 25 years old and has played in a lot of NBA games. But what about the fact that AD has been playing all of those games over weight. He is a big guy and his has not been smart relating to keeping his weight down to avoid the wear and tear that alone takes on any human's body over time. Playing basketball 25 to 35 points overweight will have a negative impact on how long he can be an effective NBA player. The joints cannot hold up to the stress of being overweight even if you walk instead of run. What if AD has already turned the corner relating to his peak and is headed down instead of up? The closer AD gets to contract time, the possibility increases that this owner will give AD a contract worth perhaps 25 mil more than his value. Tom has an emotional attachment to AD that out weighs what might be good for the future of the Piston franchise. Are you supporters of AD in support of giving AD the type of contract Tom Gores is likely to offer? This is not the typical relationship between owner and player. That has been a big problem as well because the owner has been the biggest protector of AD other than his Mother.

As I watch the amazing games in this year's playoffs, I disagree with any poster who believes that AD could fit in well with any of the teams that are left. They all play fast. Guys like Erson Illyasova ( makes $7 mil and scored 15 points in the first half of his last game for the Bucks) or Jonas Jerebco ( great defense last night) get playing time because they are fast big men who can think quickly. But both players were rejected by this owner get back quickly on defense and follow the rules of their individual rotation system within the defense. No AD would have to be on the bench and maybe get in for a max of 6 minutes a game. He would be playing about as much as Moose. And Monroe is a much more accomplished offensive player. It is not that I hate Andre Drummond as Oracle charges. I do not believe he will ever be a winning type player who can stand out in the playoffs. So when planning for next season, the worst thing the Piston front office can do is try to build their team around Andre Drummond. But they will do as the owner says. It is up to the fans to reject Tom Gores plan. He has shown that he has no idea how to create a winning team. His personal attachments to players has hurt the organization.

There are players who now are making contributions in the playoffs on good teams that make very little money. If this owner ran his team the right way, he would be one of those owners who has signed Jerebco, Illyasova, Darron Collison, Seth Curry, etc. He would have snickered a team to give up a guy like Middleton. We have had zero situations where our owner goes out and steals players who are not making much money and those players play with heart and improve the team rather than make things worse. Who would not have rather watched Lopez playing for the Pistons in that series against the bucks rather than AD? What if AD had been playing on the Bucks team. Just think of how sweet it would have been to watch Lopez who makes a fraction of the amount of money AD makes knock down those 3 point attempts unguarded. The Piston fans would be loving it if AD were playing for the opposing team. But that is not the case. We will see AD pound the bottom feeding teams next season. Everyone will be excited.

Having a player like AD on your team that makes $25 mil a season forces the team to play basketball in a different way from any other NBA team. For those who want AD to come back I wish you would advise us which NBA teams are seeking AD's services and what they might give us in a trade now. What is AD worth now after every GM watched him play against the Bucks???? I suspect AD does not have very much value at all throughout the league. Will his value increase before the next trade deadline? Is AD worth a number one pick late in the first round? How about the 2nd round? Which team would AD have the best chance to be successful?

Meanwhile some Tucson fans of Stanley Johnson believe that he will re surface on a championship level team next season or perhaps a team on the rise like the Lakers. Two NBA head coaches like SJ's game. They have the shooters and only need team first players who set good screens and have a high basketball IQ when it comes to playing defense. The Pistons reject players like Johnson if they do not score from beyond the 3 point line. But the high end teams already have the top rated guards who also play with a high basketball IQ and share the basketball. Those teams can use a guy like Johnson. I hope he recovers from his experience in Detroit and is finally able to show off his mid range game and have a coach who appreciates players who do the little things that helps team win.

[cool breeze]

I do think there's a real question as to whether Drummond lives up to his stats.  At the same time, it seems perfectly obvious that concern shouldn't be equated with giving (advanced) stats no weight, as seems to happen from time to time around here.

BallinD mentions counting stats and other stuff.  That's an interesting distinction.  It's hard to get at a distinction that stands.  Maybe there's a distinction between summative stats and evaluative/ interpretative stats.

What muddles that distinction from the outset is that all stats are subject to interpretation (after the fact).  Wins and losses may be the most basic counting stat, but it's been claimed (convincingly), in baseball, that it can be really misleading to interpret the performance of (starting) pitchers on the basis of their W-L record (eg a pitcher on a crummy team may have pitched far better than a pitcher with a better W-L record on a champion).  Similar assertions have been about RBIs.

In basketball, plus/ minus provides a clear example of the need to interpret (eg who's on the floor against you).  Murph started us off with the impressive stats that AD racked up down the stretch that runs contrary to what the purportedly "casual" fan sees.  Like Murph, I was struck by those numbers that were something like +/- as I remember: the team did far better during that stretch with AD on the floor rather than off.

Rebounding is straightforwardly a counting or summative stat.  But its meaning can be interpreted, of course.  I suggested that AD's heavy offensive rebounding helps explain his high defensive ranking.  Murph followed up with some stats (was it 27/23 and that AD gets 40% of his rebounds offensively) that would help in adding nuance to the interpretation.  But I understand if someone like BallinD says: AD's #1 in one of the three big individual stats (along with points and assists), but his real value isn't close to that top ranking.  

As I understand things, there are stats where interpretation is baked into them (and not simply after the fact).   (Defensive & Offensive)WinShare and PER (Player Equivalency Rating) come to mind.  "The PER sums up all a player's positive accomplishments, subtracts the negative accomplishments, and returns a per-minute rating of a player's performance." (https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/per.html).

These are "counting stats" too, but there does seem to be a difference from stats like ppg and rebounds per game.  There's an evaluative, normative, claim baked into the notion that it's "efficiency" being measured.  But what is it that's being quantified?  Not AD's being out of position, or missing an assignment, or coming back on D in a leisurely way, the stuff that Don focused on.  Hollinger's hope, presumably, is that the stuff that's being counted correlates closely with those observational traits that we don't conventionally quantify (and we're moving beyond PER in that I take it that's just the kind of thing that contemporary, proprietary stats does attempt to quantify through sequence by sequence analysis and quantification).

Given the interpretive/ evaluative component of PER, it's understandable that it's jarring to some that AD emerges with a better PER to Blake this year, in that the stat claims that AD was a more efficient, i.e., better, player than Blake [I do think he was in the second half].  (It's been claimed that PER's skewed in favor of big men.)  Certainly, when AD scores a higher PER (23.4) than Laimbeer ever did (who never reached 20 in a season, peaking at 19.2) or Ben Wallace (peaking at 18.6), the notion that this season AD was more "efficient" than Bill or Ben ever were will seem outrageous to many.

Similarly, WS's also based on quantification, but it inherently makes an evaluative claim: WS "assigns a single number to each player for his contributions for the year. A win share represents one-third of a team win, by definition" (wiki).  When AD's win share this .500 season (10) comes very close to Laimbeer's top numbers (10 and change) and approaches Ben's best number (who peaked at 11.6, along with a few 10+ seasons), many will find fault with the evaluative claim that inheres in the stat.  

Even I think the evaluative stats should be taken with a grain of salt, although I also think they can be revealing, as when AD's defensiveWS appears to convey something missed by the naked eye test alone.  There's a kind of mutual check, in that I also think the eye test CAN (and in AD's case probably should) serve as a corrective to the evaluative claims made by inherently interpretative stats that tend to put him in a very favorable light.

Interesting and insightful post Sparma. A friend of mine who at one time was a scout for a NBA team laughed when we were talking about all the stat hype that was going on last year. I asked him how has this become such a big thing when any coach worth his salt knows everything they need to know by just paying attention to the players in practice and games. At halftime in games coaching can use stats as motivation tools for under achieving players at any specific time. Look at you! What the hell is going on? You only have two rebounds and take a look at the 2nd chance opportunities you have allowed? Coaches can get on players in hope that those players who are screwing up will believe what you are saying and take it to heart. But I doubt that coaches can impact some NBA under achievers because they have solid contracts and can ignore the emotions of coaches. So who has been responsible for this recent interest in analytics? My friend say this came about because of the impact player's agents have with the press, team owners that know next to nothing about basketball like our owner, and can be used when bargaining for new contracts. AD's agent to AD. Get out on the perimeter and do some switching and try to get a steal tonight. Don't worry that you might screw up the rotation system and allow your assigned player to get an easy layup over Ish Smith. Get one steal big guy. We need the steal stat to get you more money. And by the way, try to miss an easy offensive rebound put back and tap it again so you can get credit for two rebounds instead of one. Funny stuff when you think about it. Is there a stat on failure to box out. How about creating a stat for mental errors and compile that stat for an entire year on a player. No way that stat will not ever be created in the NBA. The agents control which stats are most important and the fans are so gullible that they think there is really something there that is important to prove a player's worth. How about winning. If you are one of the biggest money makers on a given team for several years and your team is not going anywhere, why wouldn't that stat be important? Now I am being a "hater" again. No intellectual disagreement can be allowed without being called a "hater" now. labels like that used to be called argument of intimidation used by totalitarian governments. Students in universities these days are used to their professors not allowing intellectual diversity. That is scary for some of us who study history. Albert Spear identified that is how Hitler rose to power on the shoulders of academe in Germany in his book "Infiltration". Now perhaps it has entered professional basketball. Nothing critical can be tolerated or you will be called a "hater" or another similar word that provokes emotion. This is much like George Orwell's NewSpeak he wrote about years ago. But those clever agents can create a real hero with stats it appears.

[cool breeze]

Bell played at Oregon. I saw him in person several times when he played in college. This guy has a motor not unlike Dennis Rodman. He as been in and out of Golden State's rotation and was under the radar until last night unfortunately. But his contract expires this season and he is making under 1.4 Mil. Bell would help the Pistons with their energy as a tough defender, rebounder and screen setter. The sets screens as well as anyone that I have ever seen. Bell has a nose for the ball and can anticipate where the ball is coming off the rim. He has a high basketball IQ as well. What he doesn't focus on much is scoring but he will make shots from 8 feet in consistently. At Oregon, Bell's team made the NCAA finals with several players injured. He was outstanding all season long and I thought he would have been drafted in the first round. If the Pistons want to improve their 2nd unit and improve the defense including better paint protector and shot blocking, then Bell would be a cheap fix if he will consider the Pistons. A good coach who believes in playing the right way could make Bell into a player like Draymon Green. He has great potential. But of course this head coach only can focus on how well players shoot the 3 point shot. That is whey the Pistons will be losers but funny isn't it, AD is not a very good 3 point shooter but over last summer this coach had him working on that shot. I really like the current head coach of Toronto. To me it was a huge mistake hiring Casey who will be coasting into retirement never adjusting the type of offense or defense that might fit the players he coaches.

The other guy we have mentioned before is Brogdon. What will it take to make him a Piston. I want him bad but does this Piston owner? I doubt it. He knows AD loves RJ so that love affair will continue with all three of them living it up together for another season. Brogdon would improve the overall IQ of the Pistons. He would improve the perimeter defense as well and would really help Blake Griffin who has been forced to play with the bottom feeders of the league. I think Brogdon would help the team more than Seth Curry at this point in time. I would love to be able to watch Curry but there is no way he will play with Andre Drummond.

That is the one thing that some of the stat driven fans and perhaps this owner never seems to think about. Who do the free agents want to play basketball with? Do you think that Marcus Morris hasn't told every player in the league what his experience was when he played with RJ and AD and how he was condemned because he wanted to play on a team that shared the basketball and played the right way. No that style is forbidden under the rule of Tom Gores and the owner owners he listens to most of the time. My gut feeling is that there is no player in free agency that wants to play for the Pistons at this time. The money would have to be exceptional for any really good player to agree to a Piston contract. There is no doubt that players would want to play with Griffin. But with Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond still having the ear of the owner, that will be a big negative hard to overcome. Still a player like Bell might agree to a contract if the money was right. He wants a chance to show how he can impact a team if given a bigger role.

By the way please say no to the idea of Romeo Langford. God some of the players that have been mentioned is insane. I just hope none of this nonsense is coming from the Piston front office.

[Oracle]

They're simply stats and outcomes that are over analyzed and that's how I interpret them as simple stats.  How you look at them isn't how I look at them and thus I still don't subscribe to analytics.  

You know what you all can have a whole freaking team of AD's I'm done!

That comment alone shows that you're missing the point anybody is making, but you've made clear your opinion on this, so we'll respect it.

@Sparma: Very thoughtful description of things, and gave me some additional food for thought. None of this is straight forward, it's damn near rocket science to get things right.

There are people whose guts I trust over analytics, like Zeke, or Jerry West, they can smell good players, then there's others where I'd trust stats over their gut, like SVG.

You can't throw either out, but as I said, Drummond sits on the fence and causes both tests a lot of trouble

[Sparma]

I do think there's a real question as to whether Drummond lives up to his stats. At the same time, it seems perfectly obvious that concern shouldn't be equated with giving (advanced) stats no weight, as seems to happen from time to time around here.

BallinD mentions counting stats and other stuff. That's an interesting distinction. It's hard to get at a distinction that stands. Maybe there's a distinction between summative stats and evaluative/ interpretative stats.

What muddles that distinction from the outset is that all stats are subject to interpretation (after the fact). Wins and losses may be the most basic counting stat, but it's been claimed (convincingly), in baseball, that it can be really misleading to interpret the performance of (starting) pitchers on the basis of their W-L record (eg a pitcher on a crummy team may have pitched far better than a pitcher with a better W-L record on a champion). Similar assertions have been about RBIs.

In basketball, plus/ minus provides a clear example of the need to interpret (eg who's on the floor against you). Murph started us off with the impressive stats that AD racked up down the stretch that runs contrary to what the purportedly "casual" fan sees. Like Murph, I was struck by those numbers that were something like +/- as I remember: the team did far better during that stretch with AD on the floor rather than off.

Rebounding is straightforwardly a counting or summative stat. But its meaning can be interpreted, of course. I suggested that AD's heavy offensive rebounding helps explain his high defensive ranking. Murph followed up with some stats (was it 27/23 and that AD gets 40% of his rebounds offensively) that would help in adding nuance to the interpretation. But I understand if someone like BallinD says: AD's #1 in one of the three big individual stats (along with points and assists), but his real value isn't close to that top ranking.

As I understand things, there are stats where interpretation is baked into them (and not simply after the fact). (Defensive & Offensive)WinShare and PER (Player Equivalency Rating) come to mind. "The PER sums up all a player's positive accomplishments, subtracts the negative accomplishments, and returns a per-minute rating of a player's performance." (https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/per.html).

These are "counting stats" too, but there does seem to be a difference from stats like ppg and rebounds per game. There's an evaluative, normative, claim baked into the notion that it's "efficiency" being measured. But what is it that's being quantified? Not AD's being out of position, or missing an assignment, or coming back on D in a leisurely way, the stuff that Don focused on. Hollinger's hope, presumably, is that the stuff that's being counted correlates closely with those observational traits that we don't conventionally quantify (and we're moving beyond PER in that I take it that's just the kind of thing that contemporary, proprietary stats does attempt to quantify through sequence by sequence analysis and quantification).

Given the interpretive/ evaluative component of PER, it's understandable that it's jarring to some that AD emerges with a better PER to Blake this year, in that the stat claims that AD was a more efficient, i.e., better, player than Blake [I do think he was in the second half]. (It's been claimed that PER's skewed in favor of big men.) Certainly, when AD scores a higher PER (23.4) than Laimbeer ever did (who never reached 20 in a season, peaking at 19.2) or Ben Wallace (peaking at 18.6), the notion that this season AD was more "efficient" than Bill or Ben ever were will seem outrageous to many.

Similarly, WS's also based on quantification, but it inherently makes an evaluative claim: WS "assigns a single number to each player for his contributions for the year. A win share represents one-third of a team win, by definition" (wiki). When AD's win share this .500 season (10) comes very close to Laimbeer's top numbers (10 and change) and approaches Ben's best number (who peaked at 11.6, along with a few 10+ seasons), many will find fault with the evaluative claim that inheres in the stat.

Even I think the evaluative stats should be taken with a grain of salt, although I also think they can be revealing, as when AD's defensiveWS appears to convey something missed by the naked eye test alone. There's a kind of mutual check, in that I also think the eye test CAN (and in AD's case probably should) serve as a corrective to the evaluative claims made by inherently interpretative stats that tend to put him in a very favorable light.

[WTF]

They're simply stats and outcomes that are over analyzed and that's how I interpret them as simple stats.  How you look at them isn't how I look at them and thus I still don't subscribe to analytics.  

You know what you all can have a whole freaking team of AD's I'm done!

[Oracle]

Oracle not one time have I ever relied on analytics, I don't subscribe to the +/- theory and with rarity do I rely on stats.  I just simply don't believe in them.  So I have to strongly disagree that I pick and choose analytics that I like when I don't like any of them. - Those are only a few of the analytics, how about PPG, Blocks, steals, rebounds or Final Score, do you believe in those? They are analytics!

And you're right the Eye Test isn't everything sometimes it includes a gut feeling or simple chance at risk taking.  IMO it certainly not analytics that bring it all together for any team.  You see there's not measurable analytics for chemistry, instinct and overall BBIQ. - Yes there are, assists measure how well teams know their mates, assist to turnover ratio measures a guards decision making ability, rebounds measure desire and ability to position yourself. Do they directly measure those things? No, but the process of learning is that we refine analytics as we get smarter about how to measure and use them. And of course the final score, because teams with no chemistry, bad BBallIQ and poor instincts just don't win very many games.

If anyone with a half of brain can see that Drummond is failing the Eye Test and all the analytics isn't resulting in positive impact in the W/L column then way push it as the ultimate measuring tool  for any player yet lone a self-proclaimed over paid franchise player.   Nonetheless I'm not a believer in this trend for analytics I simply don't see them as anything more than talking points for ESPN and the likes.

Honestly the only reason I find myself in these analytic discussion is because the minute Drummond get pounded on for what the Eye Test revealing the analytics get tossed in our faces.  

But let's say I did subscribe to the analytic hyping then I have to ask why it's not translating into W's.

@Wise: The final score is an analytic that takes into account ALL of the analytics in a game and gives you a final result. It includes the things you claim it can't measure, like chemistry, coaching moves, if a guy got up on the wrong side of the bed or didn't get any for a week, it measures it all. The final score is the only stat you need... Unless you want to get smarter about HOW the game was won and want to improve based on a deeper understanding.

The final score is like God. People believe in a God because they can't explain all of the things that impact their lives, so they lump it all together and attribute it to some supernatural source.

Do analytics work? Of course they do, but like any tool, in the wrong hands, the results will vary. So it's not a question of if they work, it's a question of how they're used, and if the analytics used are accurate. You mentioned +/-, and I agree, that stat is all over the place in terms of effectiveness. Sometimes it clearly reflects what's going on, and other times it's out to lunch.

However, here is where your eye test is failing you completely. I said that Drummond fails the eye test a lot, but a better question to add to that is this. Is the team better with him on the court than off the court? The answer to that question isn't even close, they're better with him on the court. Anyone looking at that fact would look to improve the play around a player that increases your chance to win. IMO, if you can do that, you can eliminate the times when he goes off the rails and limit him to what he does best.

@Sparma - Sparma, my answer to Wise basically means that I totally agree with you. I can be gifted a painters set of brushes and colors, and the final product will look like crap, The tools are great, but in the hands of an amatuer, you won't get Van Gogh  

@Ballin - You ask several good questions, but let me take a stab at why I slightly disagree with some of your conclusions.

If we are agreed that as constructed, this team has a low ceiling, and that even during our best stretch of the season with best case scenarios on the health of our so-called big 3, we were a 49-win team pace, based on the best stretch of the season from Jan to March we were on pace to notch 49 wins, what will that get us as we move forward. Upper end mediocrity if we run it back and get lucky. - The point is that it won't be as presently constructed next year. There are many ways to build this team into a winner. I would move Blake before I'd move Drummond because Blake's window is much shorter. We have a LOT of money at our disposal, what do you do with money? You buy assets, so you can rebuild on the fly and still get the draft picks for a youth movement. It's all about looking at what your window is and maximizing your chance to win within that window... Nothing else counts!

We could cling to that or try and get better based on moving our best moderately attractive asset Dre. We will give up rebounding and moderate to decent rim protection, gain $25 mil or so. We can potentially swap into players who can facilitate moving out of the basement of NBA team scoring and maybe even gain a big who can replace Dre’s defensive production 
and not gobble shots (bricks). Will he rebound as well. No. - Yes, we can do that, the only question I ask is if it's the smart move. I wouldn't worry so much about the rebounds because if Drummond isn't there, other players will work harder to get them and the result will still be close.

Another question to throw into this analysis is “How valuable are Dre’s offensive rebounds to a team shooting as poorly as the Pistons?” Things to make you go hmmmmm. - Not me. You can ask that question about any player that is the best at something on their team, but it's the worst question to ask. How valuable is Kawhi's scoring if the Toronto role players can't hit shots. You don't get rid of the best at something because the supporting cast is bad, you address the REAL problem.

[WTF]

Analytics may have played a decisive role in Dallas beating Miami (per Chasing Perfection) in aiding with defensive position given the intense eye ball sequence by sequence observations that were rendered into predicable patterns, and actionable guidelines.

Beyond that, the Rockets rely heavily on analytics, and came within a 0-27 cold streak from 3, of beating out the champs last year.

In addition, dynastic GS evidently has drawn heavily from analytics (the proprietary nature of a lot of contemporary NBA analytics makes a precise assessment of its value by an outside difficult).

In baseball, WS champions Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, and St. Louis Cardinals have used analytics extensively.  The Red Sox have probably led the way with their multiple championships.  In the case of the Cubs and the recent Red Sox, they've relied on a mixture of analytics and more traditional scouting (eye test) in recent years.

Of course, analytics can't take the place of players performing, but it's regularly proved to be a valuable additive tool in recent decades.

I asked this question a while back and never got an answer and likely still won't but I'll ask again when was the last time analytics won a NBA Finals?  Now watch this get ignored or danced around.

Every single time, you, like most, want to pick and choose the analytics you like.


Ballin thinks there are counting stats and some other stuff, but they're all ways to measure... Period.


Most of you aren't listening, just responding to what you think someone is saying.


It's simple, the eye test just isn't everything, other things are hidden by the eye test, that's a fact.


All we're saying is that you shouldn't ignore either, it's not like anybody with half a brain can't see Drummond failing the eye test, that's the easy part. The hard part is looking deeper to figure out if you keep him or move him, and IMO, the jury is out, it's a close call, but made within the bounds of where you're taking the organization... something we can only guess at.

Oracle not one time have I ever relied on analytics, I don't subscribe to the +/- theory and with rarity do I rely on stats.  I just simply don't believe in them.  So I have to strongly disagree that I pick and choose analytics that I like when I don't like any of them.

And you're right the Eye Test isn't everything sometimes it includes a gut feeling or simple chance at risk taking.  IMO it certainly not analytics that bring it all together for any team.  You see there's not measurable analytics for chemistry, instinct and overall BBIQ.

If anyone with a half of brain can see that Drummond is failing the Eye Test and all the analytics isn't resulting in positive impact in the W/L column then way push it as the ultimate measuring tool  for any player yet lone a self-proclaimed over paid franchise player.   Nonetheless I'm not a believer in this trend for analytics I simply don't see them as anything more than talking points for ESPN and the likes.

Honestly the only reason I find myself in these analytic discussion is because the minute Drummond get pounded on for what the Eye Test revealing the analytics get tossed in our faces.  

But let's say I did subscribe to the analytic hyping then I have to ask why it's not translating into W's.

[Sparma]

Analytics may have played a decisive role in Dallas beating Miami (per Chasing Perfection) in aiding with defensive position given the intense eye ball sequence by sequence observations that were rendered into predicable patterns, and actionable guidelines.

Beyond that, the Rockets rely heavily on analytics, and came within a 0-27 cold streak from 3, of beating out the champs last year.

In addition, dynastic GS evidently has drawn heavily from analytics (the proprietary nature of a lot of contemporary NBA analytics makes a precise assessment of its value by an outside difficult).

In baseball, WS champions Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, and St. Louis Cardinals have used analytics extensively. The Red Sox have probably led the way with their multiple championships. In the case of the Cubs and the recent Red Sox, they've relied on a mixture of analytics and more traditional scouting (eye test) in recent years.

Of course, analytics can't take the place of players performing, but it's regularly proved to be a valuable additive tool in recent decades.

I asked this question a while back and never got an answer and likely still won't but I'll ask again when was the last time analytics won a NBA Finals?  Now watch this get ignored or danced around.

Every single time, you, like most, want to pick and choose the analytics you like.


Ballin thinks there are counting stats and some other stuff, but they're all ways to measure... Period.


Most of you aren't listening, just responding to what you think someone is saying.


It's simple, the eye test just isn't everything, other things are hidden by the eye test, that's a fact.


All we're saying is that you shouldn't ignore either, it's not like anybody with half a brain can't see Drummond failing the eye test, that's the easy part. The hard part is looking deeper to figure out if you keep him or move him, and IMO, the jury is out, it's a close call, but made within the bounds of where you're taking the organization... something we can only guess at.

Oracle not one time have I ever relied on analytics, I don't subscribe to the +/- theory and with rarity do I rely on stats.  I just simply don't believe in them.  So I have to strongly disagree that I pick and choose analytics that I like when I don't like any of them.

And you're right the Eye Test isn't everything sometimes it includes a gut feeling or simple chance at risk taking.  IMO it certainly not analytics that bring it all together for any team.  You see there's not measurable analytics for chemistry, instinct and overall BBIQ.

If anyone with a half of brain can see that Drummond is failing the Eye Test and all the analytics isn't resulting in positive impact in the W/L column then way push it as the ultimate measuring tool  for any player yet lone a self-proclaimed over paid franchise player.   Nonetheless I'm not a believer in this trend for analytics I simply don't see them as anything more than talking points for ESPN and the likes.

Honestly the only reason I find myself in these analytic discussion is because the minute Drummond get pounded on for what the Eye Test revealing the analytics get tossed in our faces.  

But let's say I did subscribe to the analytic hyping then I have to ask why it's not translating into W's.

[WTF]

I asked this question a while back and never got an answer and likely still won't but I'll ask again when was the last time analytics won a NBA Finals?  Now watch this get ignored or danced around.

Every single time, you, like most, want to pick and choose the analytics you like.


Ballin thinks there are counting stats and some other stuff, but they're all ways to measure... Period.


Most of you aren't listening, just responding to what you think someone is saying.


It's simple, the eye test just isn't everything, other things are hidden by the eye test, that's a fact.


All we're saying is that you shouldn't ignore either, it's not like anybody with half a brain can't see Drummond failing the eye test, that's the easy part. The hard part is looking deeper to figure out if you keep him or move him, and IMO, the jury is out, it's a close call, but made within the bounds of where you're taking the organization... something we can only guess at.

Oracle not one time have I ever relied on analytics, I don't subscribe to the +/- theory and with rarity do I rely on stats.  I just simply don't believe in them.  So I have to strongly disagree that I pick and choose analytics that I like when I don't like any of them.

And you're right the Eye Test isn't everything sometimes it includes a gut feeling or simple chance at risk taking.  IMO it certainly not analytics that bring it all together for any team.  You see there's not measurable analytics for chemistry, instinct and overall BBIQ.

If anyone with a half of brain can see that Drummond is failing the Eye Test and all the analytics isn't resulting in positive impact in the W/L column then way push it as the ultimate measuring tool  for any player yet lone a self-proclaimed over paid franchise player.   Nonetheless I'm not a believer in this trend for analytics I simply don't see them as anything more than talking points for ESPN and the likes.

Honestly the only reason I find myself in these analytic discussion is because the minute Drummond get pounded on for what the Eye Test revealing the analytics get tossed in our faces.  

But let's say I did subscribe to the analytic hyping then I have to ask why it's not translating into W's.

[BallinD]

@Oracle: Great admission, concession: Oracle wrote:” “It’s not like anybody with half a brain can't see Drummond failing the eye test, that's the easy part. The hard part is looking deeper to figure out if you keep him or move him, and IMO, the jury is out, it's a close call, but made within the bounds of where you're taking the organization... something we can only guess at.”

Now that is a true statement! Respect!

So since this is a fan forum, we argue about what is and what should never be,” that old Led Zeppelin song. “What is”as even you admit, it’s too close to call, not a slam dunk as many Drum-stats aficionados would lead you to believe.

It depends.

Where are they taking the organization? Deeper into doodoo or purgatory imo. What is the best tool to get out of NBA jail? Dre’s $25 mil?

If we are agreed that as constructed, this team has a low ceiling, and that even during our best stretch of the season with best case scenarios on the health of our so-called big 3, we were a 49-win team pace, based on the best stretch of the season from Jan to March we were on pace to notch 49 wins, what will that get us as we move forward. Upper end mediocrity if we run it back and get lucky.

We could cling to that or try and get better based on moving our best moderately attractive asset Dre. We will give up rebounding and moderate to decent rim protection, gain $25 mil or so. We can potentially swap into players who can facilitate moving out of the basement of NBA team scoring and maybe even gain a big who can replace Dre’s defensive production
and not gobble shots (bricks). Will he rebound as well. No.

Another question to throw into this analysis is “How valuable are Dre’s offensive rebounds to a team shooting as poorly as the Pistons?” Things to make you go hmmmmm.

[Oracle]

Tyreke Evans dismissed from league for violating anti-drug program

[Oracle]

I asked this question a while back and never got an answer and likely still won't but I'll ask again when was the last time analytics won a NBA Finals?  Now watch this get ignored or danced around.

Every single time, you, like most, want to pick and choose the analytics you like.


Ballin thinks there are counting stats and some other stuff, but they're all ways to measure... Period.


Most of you aren't listening, just responding to what you think someone is saying.


It's simple, the eye test just isn't everything, other things are hidden by the eye test, that's a fact.


All we're saying is that you shouldn't ignore either, it's not like anybody with half a brain can't see Drummond failing the eye test, that's the easy part. The hard part is looking deeper to figure out if you keep him or move him, and IMO, the jury is out, it's a close call, but made within the bounds of where you're taking the organization... something we can only guess at.

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