Re: FORUM

[Phil-Good]

"Now, it's time to get Cade an All Star credentialled  running mate.   I believe almost every asset within our grasp should be available to obtain THAT guy."

Agreed!

Usually for a team like the Pistons. That next star is hard to acquire other then via the NBA draft.

Also, the Pistons can't trade away the tires, the transmission, the brakes, the struts and rotors to find a sexy head light!

The Pistons need to build a complete roster. And pray Ivey, Thompson or this 2024 draft pick can become that guy!

[lemonpen]

The tank better be over.   We got the most important piece, a potential future hall of famer in Cade.  No championship has been earned without one.  The seemingly longshot induction of Ben and Mr. Big Shot have righted the only exception.
Now, it's time to get Cade an All Star credentialled  running mate.   I believe almost every asset within our grasp should be available to obtain THAT guy.  Then and only then should we fill in the blanks.
Accomplish that and I won't give a damn if Langdon burns down the front office and staff.

[Phil-Good]

I disagree. Andre Drummond's and Reggie Jackson! That team was never going to do anything NEVER!

I'm good with the rebuild!

Basketball pays bills in my house so I understand that iam not the average fan. I don't panic and I don't want to blow up my young squad.

I don't panic and I don't believe the Pistons are light years away.

[Murph]

More bad luck.  See?   This is what I meant 5 years ago when I said you can tank all you want.  You can even get the #1 pick, but there are no guarantees that the team you eventually put together will be better that the team you blew up.  

Whatever.  That’s all water under the bridge.  We have to come to grips  the reality of picking 5th.  I’d say try to find a serviceable SF or PF.   We just don’t need any more guards.

Names that seem likely available are:

Cody Williams: 6’8, 19 year old freshman from Colorado, SF, outstanding outside shooter.

Mat Buzelis: 6’10, 19 yo, G-League, SF

Ronald Holland: 6’8, 18 yo, G-League, SF

Tyler Smith: 6’11, 19 yo, G-League, PF

All of the above ate going to be projects.  None are going to step in and help from the beginning.  But they all have potential.

Congrats to Langdon.  I liked him as a player at Duke.   Landon needs to begin his career in Detroit by making a great pick at 5 this year. The Pistons desperately need 3 and D forwards.  

Let’s see if Langdon can find extreme value at 5.

[Phil-Good]

Congratulations to the new President. I believe this young man was the correct selection.


Now let's move forward. No crying, bitching and complaining! Just build this roster out and don't sale your sole for 5 more wins.

I like Cade, Duren, Stewart, Sasser, Grimes, Fantieko, and Thompson. You have something there to work with.

Get it right!

[Sparma]

This appears to be an excellent hire. I'd ordinarily be very excited except that it's the Pistons/ Tom Gores making the hire, leading to the irrational (?) fear that something big is likely to go wrong. Langdon seems to be a really bright guy (a math and history major at Duke) who is extremely well-qualified to take on this huge task. He's got lots of assets to work with, leading me to hope he won't start off with a major mistake like bringing in Brandon Ingram on an expiring contract at major cost (like Duren & Pick & ?). What we need now is a series of good decisions based on sound judgment, something Troy Weaver wasn't able to pull off at all. Fingers crossed. After so many years of futility, my sense has become that the franchise's jinxed under Tom Gores, but there are lots of good assets in place to facilitate moving the reconstruction forward in earnest now. To a bright future!

[Go Stones!]

Thoughts on fixing Pistons:

1) Have Cade work with someone to make quicker decisions. Better decisions = better passes.

2) Have the starters play 28-30 min a game. It will allow for less injuries later in the season.

3) The 2nd team should be scrappy and heavy defensively. Think Hunter and James (aka Pitfalls). Full court press and get points off turnovers. It would wear down any starters from the other team and cause a shift.

4) Go after OG Ananoby, Miles Bridges, or Kuzma. (Hard pass on Brandon Ingram) Would consider 2-3 starters with all-star potential instead. Include our 5th pick in the mix.

5) Waive Fournier and Troy Brown. Sign Wiseman for 7M, and Flynn for 3M.

6) Max out Cade, but not Grimes...yet.

[Sparma]

The improbable luck of landing at #5 three years running combined with horrible roster construction leaves us facing steep odds to becoming a contender, or even just good.

I've described my proposed solution before: hunting for value up and down the roster.  I've suggested using a formula such as money spent per unit of PER (x minutes) as a guide.

In effect, my proposal's just applying a commonsensical economic model to the project of building a strong NBA franchise. Weirdly, such an approach is distant from what Weaver's done so far, e.g. in buying out vet players like Mike Muscala who are helping your team. But a value-oriented approach would be a far more effective way to build the roster than whatever Weaver's been trying thus far. Neither does it seem to be where we're headed, if there's something to the talk of trading a ton for Brandon Ingram who'd be in his last year, in need of being signed to an enormous contract.

I see three main places to look for value, two of which are obvious:

1) working hard at developing promising and already somewhat productive players on rookie deals.  Nuff said.  I don't understand the rush many seem to feel to jettison Duren.  It's one thing to bring in Sarr if you land at #1, but Duren (depite his serious deficiencies on D) is a guy who's shown a lot at a really young age.  I'd be slow to unload him for a guy like Hartenstein who's a better fit but far more expensive, for us (as opposed to the Knicks) likely well over 20 mil per year. Much as I like Hartenstein I doubt he could sustain value beyond the contract that we would need to give him.

2) fostering excellent players on the "fun" rookie max, Cade being our upcoming example.  Ordinarily, these would be acquired through the draft.
The trade route customarily doesn't work so well in acquiring max/ near max players (unless a great player's forcing his way to a certain market, something I can't remember ever happening for Detroit).  Example: Brandon Ingram's rumored to want 50 mil for at least a three year deal.  That's not a "fun" max.  That's a dubious use of your resources, if you can even get in to sign given that he'd be coming in on a 1 year expiring.  The NBA's worked very hard to discourage years of tanking (crime doesn't pay, they say!), with the Pistons as the most gruesome example. The NBA's got a weird thing going with max contracts: the value of some players, like LeBron, perpetually exceeds the cost of their max contracts, whereas the value of another large set of players doesn't match the max cost. Steer clear of the latter set. Trae Young, for instance would inject instant offence in Detroit, and that would be exciting, but he's not worth the cost of his deal. If you can bring in a young Haliburton as Indiana did (headed toward the max at that time), do it every time you can. More realistic suggestion: draft well.

3) Thirdly, I'd like to see George Allen's "over the fill gang" model with the NFL's Washington team resurrected in the NBA, with a modification clarified below.  Some vets, like LeBron, will earn a ton even after a tremendously long time in the league (and I'd be happy for the Pistons to sign him, but that ain't happening).  Generally, those max/ near max vets with waning production would be ones I'd want to avoid, or at least not give up tremendous resources to acquire.  Pretty often though, valuable veterans are available at reasonable cost.  Up to now, they've often had their contracts bought out by their team, and they catch on paying for another team that picks up a bit more than the minimum.  The new CBA, as I understand it, makes it much harder for the rich to get richer in that fashion; a woeful franchise like the Pistons, with lots of money to spend, will have plenty of opportunities, even if not for the biggest names.  There can be real value in lesser names.  Mike Muscala's an example from this past season.  Murph recently mentioned Delon Wright; it looks like his contract may be up.  He could be a value deal.  On the other hand, even an aging Tobias Harris could help us on the court, but he's likely to be overpriced (maybe less so after lousy playoffs?).  Pass, certainly if the deal gets up around 30 mil that's been rumored as a possibility.

Clarification: I believe that it's entirely possible both to focus on value among youngsters and with aging vets.  Late in his career, Allen really concentrated on vets, trading a bunch of draft picks for vets, several of whom had played for him with the Rams.  That approach contributed hugely to reaching (albeit losing) a Super Bowl.  But Allen, as young defensive wiz and personnel guy with the Bears, evidently was the mastermind behind Chicago loading up on young talent, including TE Mike Ditka, and later fellow rookie Dick Butkus and Gale Sayers.  The current NBA is a whole different thing than the NFL back then, but I believe a multi-dimensional value seeking approach could still play dividends, especially for a team like a Pistons that is in dire straits.

All that said, you'd still need to luck into a star around Cade.  There's no substitute for genuine star power.  But a sensible economic approach would make up for a lot of bad luck.

[Go Stones!]

The new HOBO hire will bring a different angle to the rebuild. We need to be careful what we ask for.

Yeah, Monty was not an ideal coach this last year, however, he has been kicked in the @$$ a few times over the last couple years...fired, his wife's illness, etc. I wonder if he recovered yet psychologically yet. I'd like to think the best for him.

The draft is not deep, or spectacular. Maybe consider trading the first pick and move down to multiple first-round picks? Weaver has found value in the past.

What we need for the free agency period is a solid youngish player with Allstar potential at a reasonable contract. Players like Siakam, OG Ananoby, should be considered, if available. They must also have 2-way potential, or we are going in the wrong direction. Look at Trae Young for an example of what could happen. Don't trade young players with potential.

At some point, Gores needs to just pay for a couple all-star potential players and start paying taxes for going over the tax apron.

All this just needed to be said.

[Sparma]

Good post, Murph.  

I was all in on the rebuild, but they've handled it very poorly. A major concern I've had for a while has been the poor roster construction around the youngsters, as well as shaky, or at least erratic, resource management.  Have to agree that parts of the solution were already in house (although I guess we ended up, indirectly, with Duren due to the Grant trade).

Grant, Plumlee, and Wright each did very well here.  Each one of them, judged by PER, played their best, or just about, in Detroit! Grant easily had his best PER year here (16.9), and his second year here was very close to his second best overall.  Sticking with PER, his career average is at 14.2, below league average (15), indicating to me that he's not a value player now. Bringing the eye test to mind, he was tremendous at creating plays to the basket, but the synergy with the youngsters wasn't great.  Weirdly, he didn't mesh that well with the long departed Saddiq Bey or, more importantly, with Cade.  

Delon Wright did extremely well here, given modest expectations, very nearly peaking at PER (16.5) while in Detroit.  My recollection is that he did a bit of everything, ball-handling, passing, shooting, playing some D. In addition, he appeared to have a great attitude. I was sad to see him go, even though it turned out that Joseph was a competent replacement.  

Mason Plumlee was the biggest puzzler to me, with an excellent PER 18.7 while in Detroit. That puts him in the ballpark of a borderline All Star. My recollection is that only Piston Cs Lanier and Drummond had higher career PERs, with B. Laimbeer and B. Wallace both lower (as well as HoF big Rodman).  Clearly, PER doesn't tell the whole story, but still....  What I loved about Plumlee while here was that he was an excellent secondary passing hub at the top of the key.  He also was uncanny with reverse dunks, indicating his ability to operate in tight spaces.  He arrived in part due to Weaver taking on a ton of dead money (Dedman?).  It didn't shock me when he was traded, but it did shock me that the Pistons had to give up draft capital to exile him to the Hornets.  He didn't do so well away at first, but then hit his PER peak with two teams. He could have remained as a strong rotational big, even if not the top of the line starter.

Big day on Sunday.  Mother's Day, yes, but also the lottery drawing at 3 pm Eastern.  Poor draft class, I hear, but there will be some future All Stars available at the top, for those who pick wisely, or luckily.  I'm all in on Sarr at this point.

Since we might be ending the total rebuild soon, let’s look back on the free agent signings that we should have kept, and who could have helped us win games.  

We’ve had a lot of accomplished veteran free agents during this dreadful losing streak, going on 5 years now.  Derrick Rose, Bojan Bagdanovic, Alec Burks, Hamidou Diallo and Cory Josesph all come to mind, as having all played well here.  

But the3 guys I thought were great locker room presences and good on both ends of the court were Jeremi Grant, Mason Plumlee and Delon Wright.  In hindsight, we should have retained those players.  They would have provided mentoring, and a veteran strong framework that the rookies and young players could have operated in.  With those guys, rebuilding process would have been much shorter and shallower.

[Murph]

Since we might be ending the total rebuild soon, let’s look back on the free agent signings that we should have kept, and who could have helped us win games.  

We’ve had a lot of accomplished veteran free agents during this dreadful losing streak, going on 5 years now.  Derrick Rose, Bojan Bagdanovic, Alec Burks, Hamidou Diallo and Cory Josesph all come to mind, as having all played well here.

But the3 guys I thought were great locker room presences and good on both ends of the court were Jeremi Grant, Mason Plumlee and Delon Wright.  In hindsight, we should have retained those players.  They would have provided mentoring, and a veteran strong framework that the rookies and young players could have operated in.  With those guys, rebuilding process would have been much shorter and shallower.

[Go Stones!]

I think that's too much, Stones, but maybe I'm not adjusted to current astronomical salaries.

Looks like the NBA average/ mid-level exception is c. 10.5 mil, so the amount you mention would be below league average.

Wiseman's gotten better this year, but remains a lousy defender.  Whereas before this season, I thought he was fighting to stay in the league at all, I now think he's earned a spot in the league.

I continue to see him as a situational giant, more than a true back up center.  Plug him in selectively, and give him more minutes when needed.

It looks like the NBA minimum for players with 3 years of experience is c. 2 million.  

Maybe 5 mil would be ok with me for Wiseman.  Honestly though, even though I'm on board with a young roster I'd rather explore signing Drummond for that kind of money.  Mike Muscala's not really a center, although he can put in some minutes there, but he too would be a preferred target for me; he actually made the team better in the short time he played here.

I'm all for maintaining a long term perspective and featuring young players.  My biggest worry with Wiseman with the Pistons is that he'll continue to be handed more minutes than he's earned.  It may be best for all concerns that he move on, getting paid a low wage by NBA standards to play the minutes he's earned.   
 

Wiseman only gets a 7.7M offer since he didn't qualify for starting criteria. Is this worth it?

I think 7.7M is adequate for a center who just turned 23 and only played 147 games so far. He will still improve and has just now been given a chance. I'm not a huge fan, but I think it is worth that.

[Sparma]

I think that's too much, Stones, but maybe I'm not adjusted to current astronomical salaries.

Looks like the NBA average/ mid-level exception is c. 10.5 mil, so the amount you mention would be below league average.

Wiseman's gotten better this year, but remains a lousy defender. Whereas before this season, I thought he was fighting to stay in the league at all, I now think he's earned a spot in the league.

I continue to see him as a situational giant, more than a true back up center. Plug him in selectively, and give him more minutes when needed.

It looks like the NBA minimum for players with 3 years of experience is c. 2 million.

Maybe 5 mil would be ok with me for Wiseman. Honestly though, even though I'm on board with a young roster I'd rather explore signing Drummond for that kind of money. Mike Muscala's not really a center, although he can put in some minutes there, but he too would be a preferred target for me; he actually made the team better in the short time he played here.

I'm all for maintaining a long term perspective and featuring young players. My biggest worry with Wiseman with the Pistons is that he'll continue to be handed more minutes than he's earned. It may be best for all concerns that he move on, getting paid a low wage by NBA standards to play the minutes he's earned.  
 

Wiseman only gets a 7.7M offer since he didn't qualify for starting criteria. Is this worth it?

[Go Stones!]

Wiseman only gets a 7.7M offer since he didn't qualify for starting criteria. Is this worth it?

[lemonpen]

Is Gores looking for a "Hatchet Man" to insulate himself from the totality of his own poor decisions.  Someone to fire Mr. XY&Z for reasons other than the owners ego is too bruised to be further outed as having hired everyone AND erected this failing structure.  Who knows.

[lemonpen]

Vince Goodwill, formerly a Pistons beat writer, was interviewed on the pre-game show.

What I hear as the principal theme echoes JE3 (cited before by me): the Pistons will search for a Prez of Ops with decision making powers both over the GM and coach.  

That could lead to the firing of Weaver, but need not, as I hear Goodwill (and JE3 earlier).  My guess is that Weaver gets a bit more time, under great pressure to show results.

(Comment: that's not the way to go in my opinion: a Weaver eager to empty his clip, as he said before, doesn't need added incentive to act recklessly.  For me, an example of that would be trading Ivey & our very high pick for a good, but limited, vet.)

What's most surprising to me is what Goodwill conveys regarding Monty, that's determining his future will likely involve a conversation in which Monty's commitment to a young roster will be gauged, as well as his fit with a possibly much more veteran roster built around Cade.  

Goodwill seems pretty casual about trading even a first pick, partly because he says it's not a good draft.

(Comment: Such a trade may not be a bad idea in principle, but I'm skeptical that they could line up an actual trade that would make that worthwhile, especially if the Pistons are perceived to be a desperate team (which they are)).

Interesting speculations by Goodwill, who knows his stuff.  

Change is on the way.  Unfortunately, I foresee a floor raising, but ceiling lowering, summer.  Hope I'm wrong.

What's one more decision maker. Let's raise the count to 6. There is already one finger pointing down from the top and four fingers pointing back.

[Sparma]

Vince Goodwill, formerly a Pistons beat writer, was interviewed on the pre-game show.

What I hear as the principal theme echoes JE3 (cited before by me): the Pistons will search for a Prez of Ops with decision making powers both over the GM and coach.

That could lead to the firing of Weaver, but need not, as I hear Goodwill (and JE3 earlier). My guess is that Weaver gets a bit more time, under great pressure to show results.

(Comment: that's not the way to go in my opinion: a Weaver eager to empty his clip, as he said before, doesn't need added incentive to act recklessly. For me, an example of that would be trading Ivey & our very high pick for a good, but limited, vet.)

What's most surprising to me is what Goodwill conveys regarding Monty, that's determining his future will likely involve a conversation in which Monty's commitment to a young roster will be gauged, as well as his fit with a possibly much more veteran roster built around Cade.

Goodwill seems pretty casual about trading even a first pick, partly because he says it's not a good draft.

(Comment: Such a trade may not be a bad idea in principle, but I'm skeptical that they could line up an actual trade that would make that worthwhile, especially if the Pistons are perceived to be a desperate team (which they are)).

Interesting speculations by Goodwill, who knows his stuff.

Change is on the way. Unfortunately, I foresee a floor raising, but ceiling lowering, summer. Hope I'm wrong.

[Murph]

So once UConn fired Kevin Ollie, it took them about 10 years to rebuild the program that Ollie ruined.  Now with Danny Hurley, they’ve won back to back National Championships.

Kevin Ollie???  Phil please…

Did anybody see how Kevin Ollie out coached Monty Williams the other night?

Looks like Tom should have let Troy Weaver do his job but you know how that goes!

Let's hope for the number 1 pick and then trade options. Major trade options. And to walk away with who you really want in this draft. Don't care if it's a Center or Guard. Just a impact player.

Go Pistons!

[Murph]

So the rebuild is over? After 5 years of losing, you are now happy with the worst team in franchise history? Are you insane?

"Phil…you were the single loudest advocate of a top down rebuild.  Why are you abandoning your position now?  Are you tired of losing?

I’m tired of losing also. And no, these total rebuilds don’t work.  They just turn your team into a perennial loser."


I was all the way down for the rebuild.

But it's done!  

You got Cade, Duren, Thompson, Stewart etc....

The rebuild is over!! The hard part is over!!

Now you just adding the right guys to it!

I think the rebuild was the correct move to make. Now the kids have to learn how to win. It will happen!!

[Phil-Good]

Did anybody see how Kevin Ollie out coached Monty Williams the other night?

Looks like Tom should have let Troy Weaver do his job but you know how that goes!

Let's hope for the number 1 pick and then trade options. Major trade options. And to walk away with who you really want in this draft. Don't care if it's a Center or Guard. Just a impact player.

Go Pistons!

[Go Stones!]

Did anyone else see the app article that stated Wiseman didn't hit the starts or minutes to earn his qualifying offer amount of 15.8M? That he is eligible for half that? I can handle 7.9M for a backup or 3rd center on this team. He does have upside for that amount.

I wonder if M.Flynn has the same situation with his 5.8M. I can't imagine he made the starts or minutes.

[Sparma]

What to do when (with four games left) you've lost 5 games for each win and you've experienced a 28 game losing streak, that in spite trying to win?

You change.

I'd posted earlier about a JE3 speculation about the future (Prez over Weaver to come?  Monty may well be out?) that I learned about indirectly (the original is behind a paywall).  Now I see various posts that track back to Jake Fischer who reports that Monty's not receptive to a buyout.  But why would that even be a topic unless the possibility had been broached?

My predictions, drawing inferences from various sources: 1) Weaver will be retained (for now), but demoted, with 2) a new Prez of operations who will clearly be highest in command, other than Gores, who will be able to at least veto roster proposals by Weaver and Tellem, 3) Monty will be fired at great expense to Gores (and, speculating, it will eventually come out that Cade is ok with that move, in spite of initial protestations), 4) Gores will apologize for overstepping his authority with respect to Weaver's coaching preference last summer (accounting in part for Weaver staying on, in diminished capacity), 5) Gores will announce that he plans to retreat further from decisions regarding the construction of the team (distancing himself, implicitly, from any future type of Blake trade) and the coaching staff, and 6) the new Prez (Bob Myers??) will have significant say regarding the new coach, so that (#4 notwithstanding), Weaver proposes, but the new Prez disposes.

[Phil-Good]

"Phil…you were the single loudest advocate of a top down rebuild. Why are you abandoning your position now? Are you tired of losing?

I’m tired of losing also. And no, these total rebuilds don’t work. They just turn your team into a perennial loser."


I was all the way down for the rebuild.

But it's done!

You got Cade, Duren, Thompson, Stewart etc....

The rebuild is over!! The hard part is over!!

Now you just adding the right guys to it!

I think the rebuild was the correct move to make. Now the kids have to learn how to win. It will happen!!

[Sparma]

The total rebuild has gotten tougher over the years, partly because of the funky lottery odds (a terrible Wiz team has a 20% chance to land on #6), partly because, nevertheless, each year several teams seem happy to dive to the bottom.

There have been horribly long stretches of being bad due to incompetence and bad luck, the Clips of yore come to mind, but I believe we take the cake in driving a planned "restoration" farther and farther into the ground. OKC was always going to ascend because of Presti's a ruthless genius even in an environment that doesn't draw NBA stars, but I don't think Orlando, Minnesota, or Sacramento are all that well run, or even well run at all, but they've all experienced a resurgence. Even Houston. It's really again the odds to go from bad to terrible to terribler over a stretch of several years. There's a kind of talent to do that, especially when you've landed a franchise player, albeit a fragile one.

Did anyone recently read JE3 behind the Athletic firewall? His piece as conveyed by Ku at Locked On didn't come through clearly, but it sounds like Gores may be inclined to bring in a President of Operations to whom Weaver, holding on to his job for a bit, would be answerable. I'd rather see Weaver just go, but if that's not going to happen a restructuring would be an improvement.

Phil…you were the single loudest advocate of a top down rebuild.  Why are you abandoning your position now?  Are you tired of losing?

I’m tired of losing also. And no, these total rebuilds don’t work.  They just turn your team into a perennial loser.

Has anybody Seen Jaden Ivey???

Anybody! The kid who finished up his rookie season is GONE!

The player that's left over is a shell of himself!
No impact, no clutch ability, zero ability to shoot, no confidence, no anything!!

Jaden Ivey has been a straight G League player this season.

And don't blame Monty Williams! Ivey starts and plays 30 minutes every game!

Jaden Ivey is one of the main reasons why the Pistons are terrible this season!

Nobody would have known Ivey would be a straight BUST!

And that's what he is a BUST! Officially!

[Murph]

Phil…you were the single loudest advocate of a top down rebuild.  Why are you abandoning your position now?  Are you tired of losing?

I’m tired of losing also. And no, these total rebuilds don’t work. They just turn your team into a perennial loser.

Has anybody Seen Jaden Ivey???

Anybody! The kid who finished up his rookie season is GONE!

The player that's left over is a shell of himself!
No impact, no clutch ability, zero ability to shoot, no confidence, no anything!!

Jaden Ivey has been a straight G League player this season.

And don't blame Monty Williams! Ivey starts and plays 30 minutes every game!

Jaden Ivey is one of the main reasons why the Pistons are terrible this season!

Nobody would have known Ivey would be a straight BUST!

And that's what he is a BUST! Officially!

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