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Wise

Post  Oracle on Tue Jul 17, 2018 6:17 pm

WTF wrote:Okay when is enough is enough!!!!! Really people!!!!! The Moral Compass is all Fu@ked Up and if this latest displayed doesn't convince everyone something is severely wrong here.
What are you referring to?
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Is There Any Common Sense Left

Post  WTF on Tue Jul 17, 2018 5:21 pm

Okay when is enough is enough!!!!! Really people!!!!! The Moral Compass is all Fu@ked Up and if this latest displayed doesn't convince everyone something is severely wrong here.
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I want this guy back...

Post  Oracle on Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:44 pm

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Roster

Post  Murph on Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:28 am

Baring a trade, picking up Reggie Bullocks's option completes the roster. If no more changes are made, our depth chart will look something like this:

RJ, Smith, Calderon, Brown
Bullock, Kennard, Galloway, Thomas
GRIII, SJ
Griffin, Leuer, Ellenson
Drummond, Pachulia

We could use a couple more big men and a couple less guards.
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IJS

Post  WTF on Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:27 am

I think Sheed was a better post player offensively that KG and I'm not knocking KG one bit but damn why can't we look at some of our own.  I'm sure Sheed and Ben would love to pass on the knowledge.   I mean really what's next Reggie Miller coming in to tutor Kennard oppose to Rip or Joe.

Too me it like they're doing their dam best to disconnect with anything about our past Champions and great players of our past.   Shocked 

FU@K YOU TOO MR GORE!!!!!!!
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Go Pistons

Post  BallinD on Mon Jul 16, 2018 7:04 pm

Analytics:  I gotta admit, I am super late to this disussion, haven't been motivated to post much this summer; kinda waiting for training camp, but I have been somewhat impressed by the FO moves so far and modestly impressed by the rookies in summer league, but nothing to get up and shout about. Glad to see we finally ponied up on Bullock, one of my favorite Pistons.

I think GRIII, Lil Dog, is worth a little excitement on the youth/athleticism side of things and will definitely form a 1-2 punch with SJ, making for some good competition back and forth and ups our team athleticism, which is not really our strong suit at all.

I think the theft of Samwise Gelfand (from the Warriors...the left side of Steve Kerr's brain) is exciting.  Because I think it helps our coach think out of the box and be innovative, with contra-ideas that may have merit.  To me that is the upside of Analytics, not that it cures anything, but maybe puts numbers behind unpopular/questionable adjustments to encourage a coach to try something new.  Casey has a lot to prove and it seems like he is eager to be that "Coach of the Year," for us now that he is outta Toronto.  Having a young basketball mind in the room and maybe on the bench can't hurt the coach at all.  I think if used correctly he can help Casey not be SVG 2.0 relying on what worked in the past, especially with the challenge of getting RJax to play the right way and get that playmaking synnergy going with Blake and get the most out of Dre.  

I'm still wondering if they will keep Weggie, haven't heard much from his mouth this offseason, and I think he just might be smart enough to realize he ain't the team's Alpha Dog anymore, but will just have to get in where he fits in.  Dennis Schroeder is on the block in Atlanta and he is younger and less injury prone and gets more points and assists than Weggie, so we will see what we will see.  They drafted a pg, Trae Young and just traded for Jeremy LIn.  Schroeder at 25, put up 19.4 ppg and 6.2 apg last year for ATL.
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GRIII vs Stanley & Don

Post  Oracle on Mon Jul 16, 2018 3:04 pm

GRIII if healthy will beat Stanley out of the starting job, I have absolutely no doubt about that.

However, that's if we get the old Stanley. If the competition drives Stanley to up his game, Stanley will be the starter because he has the higher upside and is the better defender. Stanley just needs to get his offensive game to acceptable levels and he's a solid player.

Don, that's a silly question, IMO, those announcers must not watch too many NBA games, let alone Clipper games.

Blake & Reggie will do what they did with the Clippers... go with the flow. There are times when Blake will initiate the offense and there are times when Reggie will do it, and sadly, there will be less times where Drummond will do it.

However, this happens a lot on teams with multiple ball handlers, so I don't see why it should be confusing, but I do see Reggie being the primary ball handler.

If you don't like Reggie being the primary ball handler, then a trade should be made, because you don't want Blake in that position all of the time, IMO.
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Blake/ Dre/ Reggie

Post  Sparma on Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:25 am

Don writes: "During the summer league game between the Pistons and Chicago the experts examined that question. I loved it when one of the announcers said that the answer should be Blake Griffin. He has the skills to run a half court offense. His passing ability is underestimated. He can score in multiple ways and will draw a lot of attention because of that so other teammates should benefit relating to getting open looks. The other option is what I dread the most. I can't imagine that Casey will go back to the status quo and play the pick and roll game with Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond. It is time for both AD and RJ to make the adjustment. AD should fill a roll not be looked at as an offensive star. He needs to become an outstanding defender, move without the ball and set screens on offense and make easy baskets around the rim. RJ must convert to a better defender to earn playing time and be able to shoot the 3 point shots from the wing and baseline corner as well as use his driving ability by receiving the ball off a pass instead of creating shots with his dribble. RJ has a long history of being a ball dominate player on offense and an extremely weak defender because he expends too much energy dribbling on offense. Run the offense through Griffin and play with ball and player movement. Scrap SVG's useless offensive plan please."

I think that Griffin will play a prominent role in building the offense. Jackson likely will have the ball less.

Still, I expect Jackson to head half-court play more than anyone. On the whole, I'm not a Jackson fan, but let's give the guy his due: he's a superior dribbler to anyone else on the team, a crucial skill when building the attack. The importance of that skill's underrated, I think, also when Kennard (a solid but not stellar dribbler) is advanced as potential PG. When Reggie J's dribbling skill is combined with his good speed/ quickness, he's dangerous in close, half-court, quarters, even given his significant (and familiar) deficiencies.

But make no mistake: Blake's our most skilled (offensive) player, and I hope a lot of O flows through him.

I expect Andre to be the pivot on the attack less often than pre-Blake, but still with some regularity. Not only he is an above average passer for an NBA C, hence an asset in that area, but I believe/ I'm afraid there's some tit for tat in the NBA. Yes, it might be best if he just concentrated on D, but that expectation's likely to deliver an unhappy, hence less productive, Dre. Shaq once put the delicate issue crassly: you've got to feed the dog, if you want him to be a watchdog on D. Not that Dre's on Shaq's level, but I do think that mentality -- I need to get mine if you want me to do your bidding on D -- is shared. Not an ideal situation, but likely a situation the coach needs to come to terms with.
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Question to forum members will Casey's team play through Blake Griffin or Reggie Jackson?

Post  cool breeze on Sun Jul 15, 2018 7:05 pm

During the summer league game between the Pistons and Chicago the experts examined that question. I loved it when one of the announcers said that the answer should be Blake Griffin. He has the skills to run a half court offense. His passing ability is underestimated. He can score in multiple ways and will draw a lot of attention because of that so other teammates should benefit relating to getting open looks. The other option is what I dread the most. I can't imagine that Casey will go back to the status quo and play the pick and roll game with Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond. It is time for both AD and RJ to make the adjustment. AD should fill a roll not be looked at as an offensive star. He needs to become an outstanding defender, move without the ball and set screens on offense and make easy baskets around the rim. RJ must convert to a better defender to earn playing time and be able to shoot the 3 point shots from the wing and baseline corner as well as use his driving ability by receiving the ball off a pass instead of creating shots with his dribble. RJ has a long history of being a ball dominate player on offense and an extremely weak defender because he expends too much energy dribbling on offense. Run the offense through Griffin and play with ball and player movement. Scrap SVG's useless offensive plan please.

One thing I get out of the summer league games is that our players really buckle down on defense and never give up. They look fundamentally sound with passing and spacing on offense but playing defense is where all of them shine. I am so happy to see that the Pistons finally have hired a great coaching staff. Never thought the Casey hiring could be so good. And Henry Ellenson is showing his quickness on both ends and should be a real surprise player for the Pistons next season. The coaching staff is moving him into more comfortable positions on the floor to show his scoring ability. I look at his release and even if he misses feel that he is a sure thing relating to future Piston glory. Henry is only 21 years old and has been set back by SVG's system where is got very little experience as the announcers pointed out in this last game. Go Pistons! I feel good things are going to happen next season. I have gone from believing I would not watch one game next year to thinking it is going to be fun again to pull for the Pistons because finally under this new head coach, our Pistons will be playing the right way. But Reggie and Andre must buy in to team first mentality not Me First or Casey will have to find a way to move them.

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Robinson and Brown

Post  Murph on Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:24 am

Wise, now you're getting me excited about Glenn Robinson III.  

I've always wondered why the Pistons never made a point of drafting UofM or MSU guys like Trey Burke or Draymond Green when they had the chance.  That seems like a natural fit for the Pistons.  

I guess Joe's first venture in the draft with Mateen Cleaves cured him of that for good.  But it's too bad.  For every Cleaves, there's a Draymond Green or Glenn Robinson.

Hopefully, Robinson III can be our starting SF for years to come.  That would solve a lot of problems.  


Man...how good in Bruce Brown going to be?  He's almost single handedly led the 25th seeded Pistons into the summer league quarter finals.  This guy is playing like a mid 1st round pick...like a lottery pick.  He looks like a steal.  And he can certainly play PG.  In fact, he big enough and athletic enough and has good enough handles to be our starting PG in a couple of years.  

Brown should move right up the depth chart at PG in the next year or two.


WTF wrote:I really wanted to talk about how my gut tells me that GRIII is going to land that starting SF position over SJ and that this would make me most happy but damned if I didn't get caught in analytics  Very Happy 

You know I'm all things UM so I believe in GRIII in fact I use to dream about GRIII, Burke and Hardaway in Pistons uniforms bringing that same excitement from UM to the Pistons.

If GRIII say's he's here to start then don't doubt him he has the character work ethics and basketball IQ that SJ lacks.  I still say that eventually all three of these guys are going to find there place in the league and make a sizable impact with a team.  You know they all got Pistons DNA in them given the right opportunity and two of them got the pedigree already and one definitely has the will.   

I still wish we could have Burke as our PG
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I'm A Kill Joy

Post  WTF on Sun Jul 15, 2018 7:21 am

I really wanted to talk about how my gut tells me that GRIII is going to land that starting SF position over SJ and that this would make me most happy but damned if I didn't get caught in analytics  Very Happy 

You know I'm all things UM so I believe in GRIII in fact I use to dream about GRIII, Burke and Hardaway in Pistons uniforms bringing that same excitement from UM to the Pistons.

If GRIII say's he's here to start then don't doubt him he has the character work ethics SJ lacks.  I still say that eventually all three of these guys are going to find there place in the league and make a sizable impact with a team.  You know they all got Pistons DNA in them given the right opportunity and two of them got the pedigree already and one definitely has the will.   

I still wish we could have Burke as our PG
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Of Course You Used Advanced Analytics & Stats To Concluded I'm Clueless

Post  WTF on Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:52 am

Science the intellectual and practical activity encompassing the systematic study of the structure and behaviour of the physical and natural world through observation and experiment.

I never said advance stats were bad what I said was that they're irrelevant in sports particularly basketball.  As I stated in a prior post that I've spent 30 years as a data analyst in the area of Marketing, Finance and Communication so I'm very familiar with the use of analytics.   Advance Analytics isn't new many corporations have used them for years across all types of industries.   


Oracle wrote:So you have a lot of clowns who have access to this data trying to describe something, sometimes for fun, sometimes for fame, and sometimes for profit.

Oracle in sports this is the purpose of Advance Analytics and stats they're simply talking points for ESPN, FOX and whomever else,  they're for fun for fans participation and forum debates and the more fans suck it up it becomes for profit.   Lets just say the use of Advance Analytics was done on Advance Stats and how they could be marketed and sold for public consumption this is it's sole purpose in sports.  So from this stand point I understand why its adopted and push as being more than what it is.  

The other thing that bothers me about Advance Stats and Analytics only in sports is that they largely focus on individuals in a team sport thus it becomes less of an Exact Science.  Also I see no direct results of a player or team becoming better from the use of them though the league, TV and ownership are making a killing selling the idea of analytics.   

There's all kinds of science and in fact I love science so much I'll spend countless hours watching the Science Channel


Oracle wrote: 1. This is a science: Science can be described as the observation of physical processes, then using mathematics to understand it and make consistent and repeatable ways to simulate or predict its behavior. This is the goal of Advanced Stats, using big data techniques.

Yeah but does it turn AD into a consistent 20-20 guy?  I could use an infinity of mathematical equations to derive at 5 but how is Advance Stats actually improving a team or a players performance?   I know that I've asked a few times for detailed examples and have yet to received a single one of how it actually improved a team or individual player.  


Oracle wrote:However, that doesn't mean that Advanced stats are bad, or the quest to accurately describe phases of the game that these stats actually work for is a waste of time, or voodoo science, it's not. It's important to continue the work to get the right answers.

Is this because the Eye Test lies?   And what are the questions being asked that only the use of Advance Stats and Analytics can provide the right answer? I can be dismissive of the small amount of good because and deem it all irrelevant and of course I'm cynical on this subject when it comes to sports for all the reason you mention and then some.   This doesn't make me wrong, clueless, and uninformed on the subject or it's use in sports.

But Gosh Darn I'm being Party Pooper Again  facepalm


Last edited by WTF on Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:55 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : My Writing Is An Inexact Sciene)
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Wise N. Stat

Post  Oracle on Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:33 am

Testy, testy...

Wise, your'e clueless about this subject, let me help you out, although I know you, it isn't even going to dent your cynical ways, but others will get it.

1. This is a science: Science can be described as the observation of physical processes, then using mathematics to understand it and make consistent and repeatable ways to simulate or predict its behavior. This is the goal of Advanced Stats, using big data techniques.

2. There isn't s single advanced stat that's wrong: Not one, and if you can show me one... oh why bother, you can't, they're derived from real data, they can't be in error.

I said you were clueless, not to insult you but to describe what's needed to understand any of this. What you need is a CLUE as to why you have a problem with what you perceive as advanced stats.

Your issue with it is likely the same as mine... the use of advanced stats to predict things that the stats don't actually infer is true. That's the danger of advanced stats, that they're used in a way that some people think works but that are detrimental to either players, the team or the league.

The information embedded in stats are like electricity, humans can't see either of them, so the search for a way to accurately describe what you can't see can be a long one.

So you have a lot of clowns who have access to this data trying to describe something, sometimes for fun, sometimes for fame, and sometimes for profit.

However, that doesn't mean that Advanced stats are bad, or the quest to accurately describe phases of the game that these stats actually work for is a waste of time, or voodoo science, it's not. It's important to continue the work to get the right answers.

In any science in its early days, this level of crazy stuff occurs, but if you can't distinguish what's good from what's bad, guys like you want to get rid of the good because some people misuse the science.

BTW, do you really think so many people would be doing this if it wasn't important? You only get to see the public stuff, if a team or group ever gets close to anything right, they're not going to tell the public, it's a company/team/group secret, at least for some time period.

I have nothing left to say, except that I hope this helps someone thinking about advanced stats... & Go Pistons, beat the Lakers!
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Re: FORUM

Post  deusXango on Sat Jul 14, 2018 10:31 pm

Okay, y'all read the stats, I'm gonna watch the game.
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Just Some Stuff

Post  WTF on Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:46 pm

Jump to search

Football wrote:Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats) is a website dedicated to the analysis of the National Football League (NFL) using mathematical and statistical methods.[1] The site's lead author is noted football researcher and analyst Brian Burke.[2][3][4] Burke is a regular contributor to The New York Times' NFL coverage,[5][6] The Washington Post's Redskins coverage,[7] and supplies research for other notable publications and writers.[8]
Advanced Football Analytics features a variety of analytical techniques and applications. The site predicts game outcomes and rates teams using a logistic regression model based on team efficiency statistics. It also features a live in-game win probability model that estimates the chances either opponent will win a game in progress. Advanced Football Analytics uses its win probability model to analyze strategic coaching decisions such as whether to kick or attempt first down conversions.
Research topics include game theory applications, luck and randomness,[9] play calling, home field advantage, run-pass balance, and the relative importance of various facets of performance (offensive passing, offensive rushing, defensive passing, etc.). Also featured is research on weather factors, team payroll, and the NFL Draft.
The site has pioneered other analytical concepts such as Air Yards, which is the distance forward of the line of scrimmage that a pass travels. It removes the contribution of Yards After Catch (YAC) run by a receiver.
Advanced Football Analytics also features a catalog of unique individual player stats. Each player's contribution toward his team's wins, known as Win Probability Added (WPA), is available for each season since 2000. Expected Points Added (EPA), success rate (SR), and many other innovative metrics are available.
During the NFL off-season, Burke has posted original research related to other North American professional sports leagues.[10]





Basketball wrote:

2016-2017[edit]


In 2016, STATS and the NBA met an agreement to extend SportVU tracking data to many more media outlets around the world including ESPN, NBA on TNT, and Bleacher Report.[18]

Beginning in the 2016-2017 season, STATS would serve as France's Ligue de Football Professionnel's official data and tracking provider.[19] STATS would use SportVU to provide various football data and statistics.

After the NBA's full adoption of SportVU tracking technology in 2013, many statisticians and data scientists have utilized tools such as machine learning to provide more complex statistics from the tracking data. At the 10th annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in 2016, STATS's own Director of Data Science and his team was awarded the grand prize for their contributions to a research paper concerning the prediction of shot outcomes in tennis.[20] This was one of the many research papers completed for the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference that used SportVU data, including Kirk Goldsberry's paper in 2014 concerning the prediction of points and evaluation of decision-making in basketball.[21]




Hockey wrote:

Corsi[edit]


Corsi, called shot attempts (SAT) by the NHL,[4] is the sum of shots on goal, missed shots and blocked shots.[5] It is named after coach Jim Corsi, but was developed by an Edmonton Oilers blogger and fan who developed the statistic to better measure the workload of a goaltender during a game.[6] Corsi is used to approximate puck possession – the length of time a player's team controls the puck – and is typically measured as either a ratio (like plus-minus) of shot attempts for less shot attempts against, or as a percentage.[5] According to blogger Kent Wilson, most players will have a Corsi For percentage (CF%) between 40 and 60. A player or team ranked above 55% is often considered "elite".[5]

Fenwick[edit]


Fenwick, called unblocked shot attempts (USAT) by the NHL,[4] is a variant of Corsi that counts only shots on goal and missed shots; blocked shots are not included. It is named after blogger Matt Fenwick and is viewed as having a stronger correlation to scoring chances.[5]

PDO[edit]


PDO, called SPSV% by the NHL,[4] is the sum of a team's shooting percentage and its save percentage.[7] PDO is usually measured at even strength, and based on the theory that most teams will ultimately regress toward a sum of 100, is often viewed as a proxy for how lucky a team is. According to Wilson, a player or team with a PDO over 102 is "probably not as good as they seem", while a player or team below 98 likely is better than they appear.[5]

PDO is not actually an acronym for anything. It comes from the online handle of Brian King, the first to propose it, for forums and Counter-Strike.[8]

Zone starts[edit]


Zone starts is the ratio of how many face-offs a player is on for in the offensive zone relative to the defensive zone. A player who has a high zone start ratio will often have increased Corsi numbers due to starting in the offensive zone, while a player with a low zone start ratio will often have depressed Corsi numbers.[5] Strategically, coaches may give their best offensive players more offensive zone starts to try and create extra scoring chances, while a team's best defensive players will typically have more defensive zone starts.[4] In recent time, the use of zone starts in analysis has decreased. It has been determined that "on-the-fly" shifts account for more than half (58%) of all shifts.[9]

Score effects and situational modifiers[edit]


While hockey's analytical statistics can be used to measure in any manpower situation, they are most often expressed relative to play at even strength.[10] The statistics can also be viewed relative to "score effects". Corsi close and Corsi tied, for instance, are restricted to when one team leads by one goal or when the game is tied, respectively.[5] The use of "close" stats is intended to reflect the fact that a team leading a game will tend to play more defensively, meaning the trailing team will often take more shot attempts.[4]

Corsi close went under scrutiny that it did not predict future goals as well as unadjusted corsi, thus diminishing its value. Methods of weighting each shot by the score situation (score adjustment) has taken over as the method to adjust for score effects.[11]


https://deadspin.com/sports-analytics-is-bullshit-now-1688293396 Hmmmmmmm!!! you see for the countless articles one could come up with positive favor for Advance Analytics there is always going to be one to match calling it out for it's bullshit.
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A Million Of Them

Post  WTF on Sat Jul 14, 2018 8:27 pm

Oracle wrote:You know, those new fangled gas engines will never replace my horse! Noting like a vehicle that can drop a vicious load on your lawn to keep the grass growing.

We don't need no microscopes to see freaking germs, I can take one look and tell you that dude is sick. Damn doctors want to use advanced stats by running me through tests blood and urine tests, what's wrong with these people.

Hey, I was never in that house, I don't give a crap if you say my DNA showed up everywhere, who saw me?

I got a million of them, but it's a shame I have to use even one to explain the obvious. You don't need to like advanced stats, you don't even need to use them, but just because you don't understand them, it's silly to look at a whole world of people using them and not listen.


Too bad we're not talking technology and science if we were then you would have me on this but we're talking Data Analysis and Basic Mathematics which been around for ever this isn't new technology nor is it science.   You may have a million of them but you're still speculating on it actual results and perhaps the lack of understanding is more on you then me.  

I know what they are they're just not relevant, it silly to call this science or even relate it to some form of new technology when it isn't.  Everybody wearing pants now but still some are showing their ass  lol
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Wow, thanks!

Post  Sparma on Sat Jul 14, 2018 8:19 pm

Deus: "In all honesty, I'd side with Sparma in a debate of this nature because the man is a well read genius. Any that doubt it haven't been reading him...."

Dang, I've never gotten a compliment like that. Well, maybe once. Anyway, thank goodness there are plenty of folks to keep me from getting a big(ger) head. I appreciate your comment! And I agree with you that the many-faceted forum is a joy.
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Summer League

Post  Oracle on Sat Jul 14, 2018 7:38 pm

Ellenson seeking vindication... and mostly gets it! His 3 point shooting still sucks, but he displayed a much wider range of talent to get us over the hump.

Brown continues to impressively fill up the stat sheet going for 12 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals and 2 blocks... WOW!!!

Zeke had me cracking up when he stated that the Pistons beat Chicago and will now play the reigning summer league champ Lakers... for him it seemed like old times  lol lol lol

The Lakers will be a tough out, but by cranking up the defense, the Pistons will have a good chance!

BTW, Zeke also said that he thinks the Pistons with Blake, Drummond, Reggie and Casey will be making some noise in the east... I believe that too!
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Science deniers... SMH

Post  Oracle on Sat Jul 14, 2018 7:34 pm

You know, those new fangled gas engines will never replace my horse! Noting like a vehicle that can drop a vicious load on your lawn to keep the grass growing.

We don't need no microscopes to see freaking germs, I can take one look and tell you that dude is sick. Damn doctors want to use advanced stats by running me through tests blood and urine tests, what's wrong with these people.

Hey, I was never in that house, I don't give a crap if you say my DNA showed up everywhere, who saw me?

I got a million of them, but it's a shame I have to use even one to explain the obvious. You don't need to like advanced stats, you don't even need to use them, but just because you don't understand them, it's silly to look at a whole world of people using them and not listen.
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Anal Analytics

Post  deusXango on Sat Jul 14, 2018 12:56 pm

For something as unimportant as advanced stats/analytics vs. eye testing, it's garnered a great deal of examination, and Sammy Gelfand is suddenly the most talked about hire since Dwane Casey. At least it's slowed the flow of SVG talk.

The game is played out on the floor and that's where the average fan finds his joy or disappointment, not in the musty, dark, den of a numbers cruncher. Will Reggie Jackson and Blake Griffin give us an injury free season? If being hurt is a major part of their game, what and when will Stefanski do something about it? What will Casey do with his emerging "Defensive Demon Triplets" (Johnson, Thomas, and Brown) and how long will it take him to realize that the play of those young men, off the bench, will be key to our success or not? Should Luke Kennard prove to be a more effective starting PG (based on the eye test) will a change be made or will the contract determine who plays? I'd like to hear long winded discussions about a starting unit of Drummond, Griffin, Robinson III, Bullock, and Kennard. What if given a small sample of say 10 games, they blew the analytics out the water with offensive efficiency, ball movement/passes, and scoring points? It's hard for me to believe that wouldn't appeal to the eye.

The "Stones" vs. the Bulls this afternoon could offer a revelation or two or not....it's a lot to talk about that hasn't been discussed yet. In all honesty, I'd side with Sparma in a debate of this nature because the man is a well read genius. Any that doubt it haven't been reading him; the diversity of this forum is what keeps drawing me in.
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Not Quite

Post  WTF on Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:15 am

You know the more this subject is discuss the more doubt I have in it's validity and effectiveness there's nothing definitive in anyone argument that say's it actually works.  Somehow it reeks of blind faith as if it was a practice of religious beliefs.   

Murph you're making the most sense of the use of advance stats but even then I remain doubtful about them.  The reason why the eye test doesn't work effectively is because no one is actually looking.  They mostly have their eyes closed and ears wide open to ESPN to tell them who they need to be drafting oppose to actually doing their due diligence in assessing players for themselves.   

The eye test should not only reveal physical attributes but it also measure things that numbers can't be factor into such as will, desire, and drive to be the best.   Point in case Moose for example all the talent but no drive, desire and will to be the best.  He was clearly lazy in college yet Joe drafted him this is more about advance scouting than the use of advance stats.   

I bet Joe was using advance analytics when he selected Darko over Melo and Wade
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Advanced Stats

Post  Murph on Sat Jul 14, 2018 8:16 am

If I were an NBA statistician, my area of focus would be on the NBA draft.  IMO, the draft is the part of the game that has the most inefficiencies.  Think about it.  The NBA draft is a total crap shoot.  Teams can draft players in the top 10, or even the top 5 that turn into complete busts (Darko).  And then teams can draft players from the mid to late 2nd round that turn into stars (Isaiah Thomas).

Currently, IMO, teams draft according to the eyeball test.   They bring in these kids and  work them out in draft combines, in drills and in scrimmages, and then they measure them athletically...how high do they jump, how fast are they, how quick are they, how big are their hands, what is their reach, etc.

I'm here to tell you, the eyeball test is not working with the NBA draft.  It is missing dozens of players a year.

If I were an advanced statistician, I would start with the power conferences...the ACC, the Big 10, the Big 12, the Big East, the Pac 12, the SEC, etc...and then I would start with sophomores, juniors and seniors, because they have the largest body of statistical evidence to prove what they can do.  And then I would run regression analysis and find out what are the common statistics that 2nd, 3rd and 4th year players from power conferences have that would predict their success in the NBA.

This analysis would be an inexact and limited science to be sure.  Statistical analysis of draftees is not going work when ranking Euros from vastly different European leagues.  And it's not going to be able to rank players from mid-major or small schools.  And it's not going to be able to rank the one-and-doners who have collected a very small body of statistical evidence.  In fact, it would probably work best ranking mid to late 1st rounders, all the way down to late 2nd rounders and undrafted players.

Still, there is a huge need for advanced statistical analysis to improve the NBA draft. And the first guy who comes up with an accurate statistical ranking system is going to help his NBA team draft well and win many more games, until the rest of the league catches up.
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Analytics The New Relegion

Post  WTF on Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:08 am

Oracle wrote:What you seem to miss is that these advanced stats are there to show you what your eyes can't see, and allows you to either validate what you think you're seeing, or force you to think.

Look over there it's a dog let me check with my analytics guy to male sure it's not a cat, but damn my gut say's it a dog.  While the use could prove to offer some help it's still largely overstated and overrated.   I'm sure I'll remain old school in my thinking on this.  Also shouldn't coaches be thinking and validating even without advance stats.  I would like to be a coach just to see what the analytical guy has to tell me that I can not see with my own eyes that would make me alter my game plan or change the way I coach.    


Sparma wrote:System 1 and System 2. A more intuitive, subjective, fast, and efficient process, System 1 represents the brain's capacity to make split-second choices, often using personal experience to guide decision-making. System 2, however, characterizes a slower, more analytical process of reasoning to reach a conclusion. Michael Lewis points out in the Undoing Project how Daryl Morey observed basketball experts of the time making awfully subjective assessments in looking at basketball players. Shifting the Rockets' scouting strategy to look at hard data over simple observations, Morey implemented a more System-2-based approach to the team's hiring practices. This strategy is thought to be critically linked to the Houston Rockets' recent success.

Sparma no book or article can convince me otherwise as I'm sure both the book you're suggesting and the article Oracle suggested will make for perhaps a good read. The theory of the use of Advance stats and analytics still has far too many holes in it to be accepted as a meaningful tool largely because the results aren't overwhelming.    

These advance stats and analytics get tossed out the window every time a super team is formed and go on to win a title.   I mean really will GS be less effective as a team now that Sammy gone?  I doubt it very seriously and I doubt if Sammy data will be attracting players to come play here.  

Oracle while I do agree very little mind you that advance stats can be used as a tool of information so can simple game film if one takes the time to look at it closely.  While this change is occurring it still do conclude it's better than what old school heads still believe in.  

You can't have it both ways fellas either it advance stats overwhelmingly contributes to a team success or it doesn't.   Really Sparma that comment that I highlighted in red backs my case more than yours.  

Retrospect I thought about Chuck, LB, and Flip but especially Chuck and LB which I doubt used anything beyond the eye test.  But I don't think Flip used them either he was touted for his large offensive playbook and being a genius using zone defenses.  SVG used them so what was his problem and why it didn't help him?

It's okay though we're never going to agree on this.... tb
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Analytics

Post  Oracle on Sat Jul 14, 2018 5:03 am

WTF wrote:
You could have fooled me the way many of you tout it a dire requirement would the excitement be any greater if the guy was coming from a bottom team instead of the Warriors?
I never used to tout it as that important, but I do now!

It's part of a checklist of tools that are now required for any front office to have, and if you can't do it, you're toast!

What you seem to miss is that these advanced stats are there to show you what your eyes can't see, and allows you to either validate what you think you're seeing, or force you to think.

There tools will predict situations, take you to the film to prove the assertion, then allow the HUMAN to make a final decision. It doesn't replace the GUT, it makes it better.

It's really important, here is an old article, they're even better now: Welcome to Smarter Basketball, sub heading - The rise of big data is pitting the old school against the new school as the NBA undergoes its analytics revolution.
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