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A rare case of total agreement

Post  deusXango on Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:03 pm

="Phil1980boy"]Embrace the rebuild. I could be wrong but I do believe if Drummonds had A PG who could really get him the basketball in the right place at the right time, Drummonds could be A all NBA player.

If It's up to me I keep Tobias Harris, Drummonds, Morris, Stanley Johnson, H. Ellenson, Marjanovich and the 12th Pick.

Everybody else is up for grabs.... FIRE SALE!!!!
"Out of the mouths of babes, comes the wisdom of ages." Phillip Boy ain't no baby, but this is the wisest, simplest, way out of the conundrum SVG has manufactured and giving the faithful fans what they deserve, real hope and a competitive team. I'm not saying this because it's inline with my beliefs (but perhaps I am), but because it makes sense. The madness created by narcissism leading our team is spelled out in this snippet regarding arguably the most important position on the floor; PG.
Because Jackson’s trade value is much lower than his actual value to the Detroit Pistons if his rehab goes well and he returns to the form of his breakout 2015-16 season, it’s not particularly likely that he’ll be moved unless a team in dire straits for a point guard is willing to make an overpay.
Jackson's trade value didn't plummet like a rock overnight, it was an engineered devaluation based on hand sitting and overvaluing his worth, much like what we're doing today..."if his rehab goes well and he returns to the form of his breakout 2015-16 season..." BULLSH!T and we all know it! Living on the false hope that he'll return to the singular decent season he gave us and that was 3 years ago is pure nonsense. In the minds of many that justifies having to be faced with the luxury tax, if we sign one of our better players, and stifling the progress of an entire team, simply because SVG says so. Waiting for another trade deadline is more wasted time and if his value is thru the floor now, what'll it be then?

Look at the players Phillip Boy suggests we hold onto and tell yourself, a ball hogging, gimpy kneed, asthmatic, PG is worth holding up their progress as players. This is the company line being sold, all the way to giving away or misusing the #12 pick.
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Drummonds and Jackson on the block

Post  Phil1980boy on Fri Jun 09, 2017 4:19 am

Embrace the rebuild. I could be wrong but I do believe if Drummonds had A PG who could really get him the basketball in the right place at the right time, Drummonds could be A all NBA player.

If It's up to me I keep Tobis Harris, Drummonds, Morris, Stanley Johnson, H.Ellenson, Marjanovich and the 12th Pick.

Everybody else is up for grabs.... FIRE SALE!!!!



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We need a new coach, with the quickness!

Post  deusXango on Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:18 am

BallinD wrote:  

Has the league passed Drummond by and left SVG behind as well.  Apologies to DX, but I again ask the question, shouldn't we restructure, rebuild, rejigger the core??

BallinD, no apologies necessary as I've been campaigning for a restructuring of the core for the longest, but I don't think it's wise to go into rebuild mode, considering the age of our roster. I often feel like the last man standing when standing up for Drummond, but I'll get to the "whys" later; the league hasn't passed Drummond by because he's a piss-poor FT shooter, he hasn't been fully realized as the force he is and once he is, the league will be shocked. On the other hand, the game has passed SVG by! Look at who consistently out coaches him on a regular basis; look at his record as the Pistons coach, coaching players he's acquired, but we choose to hide his poor performance by saying his players are inherited...year after year.

When I talk about trading Reggie and Jon, I'm talking about restructuring our starting lineup, thus core. Oracle will probably disagree with my reasoning, but Ish is an upgrade at PG for THIS team because of his style of play, and without Leuer knocking around and in effect limiting Morris/Harris's contributions, I believe Ellenson is a much more valuable asset to the core; this is based on what I've seen, not what I've been told by SVG. Henry is a legit PF/C in todays league. The ages of Drummond, KCP, Harris, Ellenson, Johnson, and this years draft pick make for a core of young men that'll develop into a formable group in 2-4 years and until then, Ish Smith and Marcus Morris is all the veteran leadership we need!

In the case of Andre Drummond, I'm for holding onto him because he's not received any quality, tough love, knowledgeable, big man coaching since he's been in the NBA; given his size, end to end speed, quick hands and feet, and his extraordinary athleticism, I wonder how the astute fan can miss all the untapped possibilities, but stay focused on FT's. Like I've not witnessed any quality coaching for Drummond, I noticed he's played with ball dominate PG's also (the exception being Ish Smith). I wonder what Jason Kidd, Brad Stevens, Mike Budenholzer, or the grand old man Greg Popovich would do with a talent the caliber of Drummond? And that's to name a few of the modern, innovative, coaches, that're not stuck in past practices.

I hear the Pistons are shopping Jackson and Drummond; a team without both is a lottery team for years to come and that trade will only serve to buy time for SVG's dismissal. A team without Drummond will struggle also, but will serve to satisfy Drummond haters, on the other hand, a Jackson less led team would gel, make the playoffs, and challenge for an ECF appearance by getting through the second round. I'm getting a little wild so I'll briefly speak on some draft facts that're being overlooked.

Donovan Mitchell has developed a fan base already, based on his athleticism and long arms (potentially making him a great defender). He has no outstanding positional skills and long arms doesn't guarantee a great defender, just ask Reggie.

Luke Kennard has a fan base also, but is not athletic and possess "alligator arms" and poor defensive skills; the 12th pick for a lottery team to be spent on a bench player is too high, no matter how smart he is.

Justin Jackson is my personal favorite, so I'll defer to a wiser mind than I, BallinD, by saying simply "Pedigree!"
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Overpaying? When the Pistons should be concerned.

Post  Sparma on Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:00 pm

"Overpaying"'s a contextual term. It can mean a bunch of things, some benign, some not. Maybe understood in one sense it doesn't even exist. Care needs to be taken in how it's used, so as to avoid equivocation.

Is AD overpaid? Well, in one sense no. He received an offer within the structure of the system and took it. Not sure a player can be overpaid in this sense: he took the offer that the market yielded.

Another sense of being overpaid might be that he earns, I don't know, maybe 500 times as much as a 1st grade teacher in this country. Should that concern us? Probably so, but it's not a typical focus for a basketball forum.

Or maybe he overpaid relative to the resources of his employer, Gores. Nah, I'm not bothered in that sense.

There are several other senses of being "overpaid" that could be explored, but I'm going to cut to the chase. One way of thinking about whether or not a player is being overpaid is to compare production (momentarily bracketing other things like promise, age, youth, fit, etc., all of which could probably be made to fit in a complex algorithm) to pay. What does the average SG scoring 13 ppg, etc, earn in the NBA? Variables can be added to make for sharper comparison.

This sense of under/ overpayment should concern us greatly because it has a ton to do with whether or not roster building succeeds. It's my understanding that Steph Curry has been grossly underpaid given his production. That's extremely important to GS, which was able to sign Kevin Durant as a result (in part), becoming maybe the most dominant team ever. When Steph gets paid market value this year, that's also going to matter greatly to GS, diminishing their roster building capability. On a lesser scale, Miami benefited hugely from being able to pay Ray Allen, what, vet's minimum for his valuable contribution.

Overpaying? We've got maybe the clearest case on our payroll. Josh Smith at, what, 5 mil per year is being grossly overpaid for his 0 contribution. That's something we should care about because it affects our ability to build the roster. Less straightforwardly, maybe Reggie's deal was roughly in line with performance (at least if we add promise and youth in that case), but now it looks like a serious overpay relative to performance and value to the team. That bugs me because it impinges, given the structure of the NBA, on our ability to build a good team.

Back to KCP. Given the alternative of getting nothing for a pretty good player, I think we pretty well need to pay up. But it's a dilemma, with unappealing (side) effects on both horns. At 20 mil+, I'm pretty sure he's going to be overpaid in comparison to similar performance around the league. This could be established as a fact through statistical analysis. Maybe such overpayment can't be helped. The system got us. We got ourselves with some questionable budget management. Should we care about overpaying in that sense? Yes, because it negatively affects our roster building capacity.


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Three Things

Post  BallinD on Thu Jun 08, 2017 1:09 am

Nobody in the finals and for the most part in the semifinals used a lot of center, and we all know the league is trending away from big men as small ball goes big and big ball goes pfffffft.  

Has the league passed Drummond by and left SVG behind as well.  Apologies to DX, but I again ask the question, shouldn't we restructure, rebuild, rejigger the core??

We know (or we should) we can't win with Dre sucking up cap space and unable to defend the post or play down the stretch of close games.  Now we see as clear as the day is long, that the Drummonds, the Hibberts, the goliaths of the past cannot dominate and even keep up in this new NBA.  Will we be left holding the bag?  Will we be the last team to adjust??  Can Ellensen be our small ball center. Is the laughingly named Lauri Markkanen available to us or can we get Porzingis?


Last edited by BallinD on Thu Jun 08, 2017 1:31 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : woops)
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LeBron takes a nasty hit...

Post  Oracle on Wed Jun 07, 2017 10:25 pm

From his own man!!! 

Hope he's alright!
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Stuff...

Post  Oracle on Wed Jun 07, 2017 10:18 pm

Sparms wrote:I, in turn, feel misunderstood. I do think they pretty much need to sign him, this evidently in agreement with you. BUT, I think there's an enormous downside to doing so, both because it will put a grave pinch on our roster and because WE (rather than say the Nets) would be overpaying for his performance. I tried to establish the logical fallacy of equivocation that's common when asserting that if a player is offered something (eg the Nets offer KCP the max and the Pistons match), then it's market value, and it can't be overpaying, but was met with reiteration of the very proposition under debate (that is, begging the question)
@Sparma: I'm sorry if I implied that it couldn't be overpaying, it is, and generally that's been the history of the NBA, so I am a bit surprised that overpaying bothers anyone. Teams pay betting on the come, that the player will live up to the contract, so it's both the market value, the value of a player with promise, and overpaying, because he hasn't reached that level yet.

@DX: Yes that could be a consequence, but if you read the article, coming back with the same team could be radically changed by the Feb deadline, there will be many teams with large motivations to deal, we'll see how this shakes out. I bet the Rubio deal is still there for the taking.

Ballin wrote:I think I was the first or one of the first to mention S&T for KCP, not coming late to that party. As I recall you ridiculed me for the notion and wondered who we could possibly get to replace a KCP, "Our best player," according to you. Not buying it!

@Ballin: You may be correct, over time we all change based on current information, so I apologize, I do remember you saying that.

BTW, you're free to disagree that KCP was our best player, it's my opinion, so I should have said arguably, and there is a lot of room to argue that point.
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What If ?

Post  BallinD on Wed Jun 07, 2017 9:29 pm

Man it would be great if Ish beat out Weggie in training camp. I feel he could benefit more than anybody else from a good offseason shooting program. BTW, he (Ish) shot the ball better from the field than our soon-to-be $20 million Shooting Guard, 44% vs 39%.

Ish over Weggie, Reggie Bullock over KCP. I can dream. Boban over Baynes. Harris over Morris, Ellensen over Leuer (trade please) SVG is an impediment to alll of that, of course, and so if he doubles down on dumb rotations, uninspired offensive plays, his favorite sons, well it is gonna be a long season. It was so much fun to watch Ish do the waterbug, Boban do the Wilt. Wanna see more of that.

@Oracle. I think I was the first or one of the first to mention S&T for KCP, not coming late to that party. As I recall you ridiculed me for the notion and wondered who we could possibly get to replace a KCP, "Our best player," according to you. Not buying it!
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Life on life's terms...life has some helluva terms!

Post  deusXango on Wed Jun 07, 2017 9:15 pm

It's been said over and over that the Pistons will re-sign KCP this summer, regardless the cost. Has anyone ever considered that the cost could reach parting company with Reggie Jackson?

Tom Gores wouldn't be the successful businessman he is today being a fool; business is a cutthroat venture. After watching what he had in Ish Smith, for $6 million, compared to what he had for $10 million more in Reggie Jackson, does anyone really think he gives a damn about what SVG wants? SVG is the president/coach of the Pistons, but Mr. Gores wears the title that carries the weight; BOSS! The Boss has greater concerns than who's not shooting 3's for a high percentage, or the ISO leading to P & R; he's interested in the bottom line and that team that's led by Reggie Jackson is not good for the bottom line!
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KCP

Post  Sparma on Wed Jun 07, 2017 9:05 pm

I, in turn, feel misunderstood. I do think they pretty much need to sign him, this evidently in agreement with you. BUT, I think there's an enormous downside to doing so, both because it will put a grave pinch on our roster and because WE (rather than say the Nets) would be overpaying for his performance. I tried to establish the logical fallacy of equivocation that's common when asserting that if a player is offered something (eg the Nets offer KCP the max and the Pistons match), then it's market value, and it can't be overpaying, but was met with reiteration of the very proposition under debate (that is, begging the question). One addendum there: concerning RFAs it's not exactly a free market (i.e. they're restricted FAs), which contributes to teams (eg the Nets) making wild offers to decent players (Crabbe last year, maybe KCP this year) which leads to home teams matching for fear of getting nothing for decent players they might struggle to replace. And I not very optimistic about good trade prospects down the line for a pretty good player earning circa 20 mil. So, yes to S&T, but I'm skeptical the good offer is out there.



Oracle wrote:
Sparma wrote:BUT, put in context of our overall roster, our budget situation, and the structure of the NBA he's about to pose a heck of a conundrum for us(no he doesn't, in fact, he's the solution).  Let maybe our best player last year walk for nothing?; pay near max for a pretty good player, making it quite a bit tougher to improve the roster?  To me, that sounds like a big conundrum/ problem facing SVG.
Sparma, I've been explaining why signing KCP, even without a S&T being available is the smartest thing we can do, and I think DX and Balling are getting it, but you seem to have not put it all together, likely you may have missed some of my posts on the subject.

None of the reasoning most have about this is relevant because it comes down to a few simple facts.

This article does a great job of explaining the situation and maybe even Don can finally get it lol
http://pistonpowered.com/2017/06/07/detroit-pistons-resign-kentavious-caldwell-pope/ wrote:It’s been a foregone conclusion since before the 2016-17 regular season began that the Detroit Pistons were invested in re-signing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope this summer, perhaps regardless of the cost. There are a number of reasons for this: the structure of restricted free agency, cap minutiae, owner Tom Gores and coach and president Stan Van Gundy love him, and most importantly he’s both young and good at an important role that is difficult to adequately fill in the modern NBA.

.....................
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Sparma: What if the Pistons don’t re-sign Kentavious Caldwell-Pope?

Post  Oracle on Wed Jun 07, 2017 6:22 pm

Sparma wrote:BUT, put in context of our overall roster, our budget situation, and the structure of the NBA he's about to pose a heck of a conundrum for us(no he doesn't, in fact, he's the solution).  Let maybe our best player last year walk for nothing?; pay near max for a pretty good player, making it quite a bit tougher to improve the roster?  To me, that sounds like a big conundrum/ problem facing SVG.
Sparma, I've been explaining why signing KCP, even without a S&T being available is the smartest thing we can do, and I think DX and Balling are getting it, but you seem to have not put it all together, likely you may have missed some of my posts on the subject.

None of the reasoning most have about this is relevant because it comes down to a few simple facts.

This article does a great job of explaining the situation and maybe even Don can finally get it lol
http://pistonpowered.com/2017/06/07/detroit-pistons-resign-kentavious-caldwell-pope/ wrote:It’s been a foregone conclusion since before the 2016-17 regular season began that the Detroit Pistons were invested in re-signing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope this summer, perhaps regardless of the cost. There are a number of reasons for this: the structure of restricted free agency, cap minutiae, owner Tom Gores and coach and president Stan Van Gundy love him, and most importantly he’s both young and good at an important role that is difficult to adequately fill in the modern NBA.

.....................
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One More Thing

Post  lemonpen on Wed Jun 07, 2017 4:18 pm

Who suffered most when our transition game leader left the starting lineup. Hint: the fastest player on the team, the guy who finished many of the rapid thrusts upcourt. Just sayin ......
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A Plucky Fans' Take on Things

Post  deusXango on Wed Jun 07, 2017 3:02 pm

Oracle, you've made another very convincing argument, one that has changed my perspective on how to spend within the framework of the CAP, and get the most from the expenditures for the team. We've talked about the rapidity of KCP's development, or lack thereof, but as BallinD pointed out, perhaps there were outside influences that accounted for his progression/regression; those influences should be examined and evaluated for the betterment of the team. This should be done for every member of our perspective core group before making any rash signings. Of all the fishing expeditions (we've come to call FA signings) there's been only one who's pulled his weight when called on; Ish Smith, who many don't appreciate his dedication and contributions.

Across the board, members of this forum enjoyed a brand of basketball that was exciting, effective, and living up to the expectations that were established in the lone season we made the playoffs. SVG unexpectedly signed "the little engine that could" and he did; he came in cold, learned his teammates nuances, passed to and got everyone involved in the offense, and inspired a well balanced defense being played. The scoring was spread out and the core of Drummond, KCP, Harris, Morris, and Stanley Johnson to a lessor extent, had begun to win! The team didn't miss the playoffs and start loosing because of Smith, no, it was because of the "monkey wrench" thrown into a growing, successful, mix, named Reggie Jackson ("the walking wounded" Oracle referred to). The point I'm making with all this is, Morris is going to be talking contract sooner than we think, like KCP is now, and possibly/hopefully Ellenson will follow; the time for astute decision making is now.

For some fool-ass reason we found ourselves sold on that "wait and see" attitude when it became apparent that this was no longer Reggie's team/audience to destroy, through progressive regression, we didn't trade him when we could've gotten something; wait until the deadline, wait until the offseason, now we're back to waiting for another trade deadline. The bottom line is we're holding onto a counter-productive player at the expense of a young team! We have a PG, that nobody likes, that can run the P & R in addition to pushing the opposing defense to worry about us and not the other way around...we didn't get a chance to see that fully develop. Now we looking for redemption, and a magical return to "form." Because SVG valued Reggie to be a $16 million a year player (John Wall fainted again) doesn't mean he's viewed as such by other GM's around the league. SVG has been lucky over-valuing and over-paying players, when it comes to signing FA's, but he can't keep applying the stretch provision (Josh Smith) when he can't trade players because of outrageous contracts. My main reason for wanting Reggie traded, long ago, was because I knew where we stood with the CAP and I personally valued KCP more than Reggie. I wanted the Rubio deal done, but SVG started eating out of Reggie's *** and now he'd be lucky to get a parking lot attendant for his favorite $16 million man; Ricky Rubio would certainly have brought us another first round pick, if he didn't work out.

If we've got to carry three high priced players in our core, I'd rather they be Drummond ($24 million), KCP ($20 million) and Harris ($16 million); they're healthy, young enough to develop together, and all 3 have special skills to build on. I believe SVG should renounce the rights to Bullock, Gbinije, Hilliard, and try like hell to trade Reggie Jackson, Jon Leuer, and Boban Marjonavic. Pursue signing C.J. Miles, draft Justin Jackson, and bring in Sterling Brown, if he goes undrafted, a player that shoots the 3 ball better than Luke Kennard and has otherworldly athleticism. Oh, and being a Larry Brown coached player, he knows how to play the right way!
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Problem?

Post  Sparma on Wed Jun 07, 2017 2:00 pm

Tried a light-hearted reference to a non-macho movie that came out more than 50 years ago; clearly not the way to go.

In the movie, Maria herself clearly wasn't a/the problem as a individual person; arguably, within a certain context -- the nunnery -- she was at least perceived as a problem, however affectionately.

Analogously, KCP qua basketball player is not a problem, let alone the problem.  I think he's pretty good.   He's young, and I tried to make the case he actually did elevate his game for a good chunk of the season.  And the case has been made that he was our best player last year; who am I to disagree?

BUT, put in context of our overall roster, our budget situation, and the structure of the NBA he's about to pose a heck of a conundrum for us.  Let maybe our best player last year walk for nothing?; pay near max for a pretty good player, making it quite a bit tougher to improve the roster?  To me, that sounds like a big conundrum/ problem facing SVG.  

Maybe there's not a problem because there's a sign-and-trade ready at hand? I'd be for a sign-and-trade if there's a good one out there.  But I can't see that Brooklyn would be motivated as partner.  Drawing in a moderately good RFA with a huge offer is one of their only ways to improve.  Philly?  I doubt it.  Giving true value in return for a pretty good player would be a complete betrayal of "The Process", granted that they've been inching away from that post-Hinkie.  Who knows, but I don't see an easy solution to the problem in a good sign-and-trade for us.

btw, to briefly return to the subject of tanking never succeeding.  Saw an article recently (can't remember the source) about the Houston Astros (with the best record in baseball) succeeding by way of tanking, with explicit reference being made to basketball style tanking.   Going farther out on a branch, I think the Cleveland Browns will prove to a successful case of tanking (high picks; manipulating the system with cap space) within three or four years.  But it's too early even for me to call that one a success yet.  In the NBA, I do stand by my proclamation of Philly as a success in the making/ already a rebuilding success, but that statement could still be falsified in the Process still goes South, contra my expectation.


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Ballin & DX

Post  Oracle on Wed Jun 07, 2017 5:45 am

Ballin, that was a very balanced post, but there's another way to look at positions. If I'm coaching, I see every position, not as who starts them, but as a single entity. On any given night, position X, let's say SG, I need a certain amount of points. So I need a starter and a backup that will get them for me.

I don't care if one is more defensive and one scores more, I need both, but one of them needs to score and one defend to make the points we score hold up. You want this at each and every position, and you start the players based on best ability and chemistry.

One big problem is that KCP has never had any real competition, That's not good for him and it's not good for us, so yeah, we should always be shopping, but without any competition at SG, we'll always be lacking something.
deusXango wrote:
Oracle wrote:KCP isn't the problem, he isn't the problem with the team or the cost, that problem is with league management. League management is responsible for our payroll and the net results of what we've been paying for? No, that's not what I meant.

If average players, which KCP is by the numbers and what he does(not counting potential), and the others on our payroll who are less than average cost what they cost, then the CAP is not being set properly. What? The CAP determines the relative cost of players. If the CAP was 300M with associated lux threshold, then you could sign many average players at a higher cost. But think of it this way. We need the CAP to reflect the exact relative coat as in the 90's. If players salaries were x and now their 5x, the CAP needs to go up by 5x. If that happens signing KCP to 25M is equivalent to the old days of slightly above the MLE... it's all relative.

Teams never used to have this problem signing average players, but prices are high now because there is a lot of money around, but the CAP needs to be adjusted such that signing players at these inflated prices doesn't limit a teams flexibility. This is one of the reasons I believe SVG is in waaay over his head. He's not a skilled executive and the coaching game has passed him by. We're still paying Josh Smith a tidy sum and this insane demand for a roster full of mid range scorers to shot 3's is off the top of my head. Can an old dog learn new tricks? This is likely SVG's last chance to prove he can. IMO, he'll either revamp this roster or revamp his coaching style if he wants to keep going beyond next season. He deserve the chance, but only one more.

Whatever KCP gets, or any player for that matter, they're worth it, end of discussion, the free market has spoken!

The only question after that is can they live up to what they've been paid. If they do, then everybody's happy, if they don't, they get moved. Shouldn't Reggie have been moved by the trade deadline, last year, then? Remember Reggie for Rubio? Possibly, but it's hard to move a player that's been injured and it's not really fair unless the injury is hard to recover from. Having said that, Rubio may have fit us a bit better.
I understand the reaction, but I don't understand the attempted solution by some wanting to sign the walking wounded or guys that have never played an NBA minute... that's really reaching, IMO, and leads nowhere. Reggie Bullock and say, Justin Jackson, is not a viable solution against a $25 million contract for average? Bullock is ridiculous, but Justin may be worth picking. Bullock is a huge risk while you've convinced me that Justin, while not my preference, isn't a bad pick if SVG makes it. But again, they don't get you anywhere and won't get us to the playoffs and aren't worth anything money wise.

These guys are worth nothing, so what can you trade them for if a star/superstar becomes available? Could KCP, Harris & Reggie net a superstar? Hell yeah, maybe even just 2 of them and a pick could net somebody, but what can you get for a broke down loser and a rookie, LOL! What superstar(s) did you have in mind that SVG could get for KCP, Reggie, and Harris? You threw it out there, so qualify it with some names that make sense...I'm excited. I mentioned before on a couple of occasions that Jimmy Butler is there for the taking if you have the assets Chicago could use to build around. Boston backed off, but he's still available.
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KCP

Post  BallinD on Wed Jun 07, 2017 2:00 am

[b]Sparma, Oracle: [b]Let's all hope KCP continues his slight and incremental progress and reverses the regressions.
Hope he gets a better coachup, he still has upside, if we do retain him and continue to look for a real sharpshooter, CJ Miles? I agree it is possible for him to take a jumpup to "good," he's almost there if he improves his shot, and if he plays to his strengths, continues to assist and if he plays fewer minutes.  I know that's a lot of ifs, but anywho I will be rooting for him. And no, he is not the problem, but I still contend he eats minutes that could be more productively allocated.
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I agree Oracle, KCP is not the problem, but......

Post  deusXango on Wed Jun 07, 2017 12:53 am

Oracle wrote:KCP isn't the problem, he isn't the problem with the team or the cost, that problem is with league management. League management is responsible for our payroll and the net results of what we've been paying for?

If average players, which KCP is by the numbers and what he does(not counting potential), and the others on our payroll who are less than average cost what they cost, then the CAP is not being set properly. What?

Teams never used to have this problem signing average players, but prices are high now because there is a lot of money around, but the CAP needs to be adjusted such that signing players at these inflated prices doesn't limit a teams flexibility. This is one of the reasons I believe SVG is in waaay over his head. He's not a skilled executive and the coaching game has passed him by. We're still paying Josh Smith a tidy sum and this insane demand for a roster full of mid range scorers to shot 3's is off the top of my head.

Whatever KCP gets, or any player for that matter, they're worth it, end of discussion, the free market has spoken!

The only question after that is can they live up to what they've been paid. If they do, then everybody's happy, if they don't, they get moved. Shouldn't Reggie have been moved by the trade deadline, last year, then? Remember Reggie for Rubio?

I understand the reaction, but I don't understand the attempted solution by some wanting to sign the walking wounded or guys that have never played an NBA minute... that's really reaching, IMO, and leads nowhere. Reggie Bullock and say, Justin Jackson, is not a viable solution against a $25 million contract for average?

These guys are worth nothing, so what can you trade them for if a star/superstar becomes available? Could KCP, Harris & Reggie net a superstar? Hell yeah, maybe even just 2 of them and a pick could net somebody, but what can you get for a broke down loser and a rookie, LOL! What superstar(s) did you have in mind that SVG could get for KCP, Reggie, and Harris? You threw it out there, so qualify it with some names that make sense...I'm excited.
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Sparma: KCP is NOT the problem

Post  Oracle on Wed Jun 07, 2017 12:35 am

KCP isn't the problem, he isn't the problem with the team or the cost, that problem is with league management.

If average players, which KCP is by the numbers and what he does(not counting potential), and the others on our payroll who are less than average cost what they cost, then the CAP is not being set properly.

Teams never used to have this problem signing average players, but prices are high now because there is a lot of money around, but the CAP needs to be adjusted such that signing players at these inflated prices doesn't limit a teams flexibility.

Whatever KCP gets, or any player for that matter, they're worth it, end of discussion, the free market has spoken!

The only question after that is can they live up to what they've been paid. If they do, then everybody's happy, if they don't, they get moved.

I understand the reaction, but I don't understand the attempted solution by some wanting to sign the walking wounded or guys that have never played an NBA minute... that's really reaching, IMO, and leads nowhere.

These guys are worth nothing, so what can you trade them for if a star/superstar becomes available? Could KCP, Harris & Reggie net a superstar? Hell yeah, maybe even just 2 of them and a pick could net somebody, but what can you get for a broke down loser and a rookie, LOL!
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What to do with a problem like KCP?

Post  Sparma on Tue Jun 06, 2017 10:42 pm

I was forgetting about the shoulder problem, Oracle. That could explain genuine progress throughout a good chunk of the season, then regression (along with the point concerning Reggie raised by Lemonpen).

But in comparing his last two seasons on the whole statistically, I'm more struck by stability than progress. For his career, cutting his fouls per 36 minutes about in half from his first season looks like a good feat (partly attributable to refs not giving rooks much respect?). And the assists took a jump forward this year (partly attributable to playing away from Reggie more often than last year rather than a leap in ability?). Shooting numbers a mixed bag. Several secondary numbers stable.

And I wasn't even taking into account the defensive comparison that BallinD mentions. If he's right about that, it makes it even tougher to argue for progress.

Still, he seems to have improved in some respects. And I'll stick with my mediating comment that he made genuine progress even though the season ending stats don't reflect that clearly.

On the whole, it seems like we don't have much choice but to sign him, in part because our budget doesn't provide prospects for a comparable signing; but signing him likely would mean us overpaying for what he delivers and becoming more financially pinched, rendering making the necessary roster upgrades tougher.

btw, I think there can be an equivocation when people say something like: he was signed at market value, so we must not being overpaying. That kind of thing is true from the vantage point of the player. If he signs for the max, then he must be worth the max because someone was willing to pay it. True, in one sense, but why is he worth the max? Presumably because a team like Brooklyn has very few avenues to improve (their pick goes to Boston next year too!?), has cap space, and needs to give big offers to lure players (Alan Crabbe??) to a bad situation. That doesn't mean signing him for the max (or even a few mil less) wouldn't be overpaying for us. It's just that the market and our situation would force us into overpaying. Sometimes you're pretty much forced into doing something that you know doesn't really make sense.

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KCP

Post  Oracle on Tue Jun 06, 2017 10:13 pm

Lemon brought up some great stats and an interesting tradeoff. However, that tradeoff extends beyond KCP. After the success we had in a faster paced game, it's become clear that the entire team benefits from that vs the two man game of Reggie & Drummond.

IMO, Reggie needs to expand his game to play both styles, because while we had a lot of success in the regular season, we will need an effective half court game in the playoffs. There needs to be player and coaching adjustments, SVG can not be let off the hook here.

@Sparma - There have been many articles that show that the decline in KCP's game was directly related to his shoulder injury, timing wise. His performance went down after that. I don't like to use injury as an excuse, if you lace up, we should expect your best or let somebody else play, but we all know that there are other pressures that make players play when they know they're not 100%.

But Ballin has accused me of stubbornly saying KCP improved when he hasn't, but it's not stubborn, I just don't think you define improvement based on a few stats, but look at the whole picture.


As you can see, KCP went down in 2 point percentage and points per game.

But he went up in 3 point percentage, FT percentage and assists per game, which adds 5+ points to his per game total

I look at this and see improvement in the key areas I want to see improvement. I would also like the 2 point percentage to be better, but I saw enough improvement when he was used right to offset that.
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Here's Hoping

Post  BallinD on Tue Jun 06, 2017 8:17 pm

Hey Sparma,

I appreciate your attention to detail.  There are all sorts of stats we can parse, but as Oracle says, the bottom line is if we can't find a S&T partner, I am not willing to let KCP walk for nothing.  But neither do I think we can build a team around him. He plays hard on defense, but the effort does not translate to stopper or anything like that.  It's just Weggie is so bad, we need someone to step up and guard elite PGs and SGs and KCP will step up and try. Why will no one speak the truth on that.  Could that be why he is considered so indispensable, because without someone to guard the Kyrie's and Stephs and Walls of the world, where would we be??

I just know last year in a contract year his FG% (39.9 is down from 42.0), scoring average, 13.8 (down from 14.5, and this in a contract year. Free throws made and attempted are down (154-185 vs 185-228) got to the line a lot less, though he did increase his FT% (.832 vs .811) and his 3pt % (.350 vs .309).  So overall shooting is down, scoring is down, free throw attempts is down and defensive rating is down.


BTW, speaking of defense, Per ESPN:"The 1987-88 Bad Boy Pistons come second, having allowed 7.8 fewer points per 100 possessions than the league average. In other words: Adjusted for competition, Golden State might be the best defensive team ever to advance this far."
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KCP Improvement?

Post  Sparma on Tue Jun 06, 2017 7:08 pm

I don't think a year's numbers necessarily determine whether or not there's been improvement.

My understanding is that by the numbers KCP showed considerable until the All Star game or so, but regressed the last couple of months of the season. If so, what might that mean?

Let's say someone runs a mile at a 7 minute pace average over 3 years, then starts running it at 6 for half a year, then regresses. If he then regresses to running the mile at the old 7 minute pace, I'd say real improvement has occurred, even though the regression stands in need of explanation. In KCP's case, maybe Lemonpen's explanation accounts for part of that regression.

If I'm understanding BallinD's interpretation though, he's saying that the averages for the year really haven't improved (although maybe the total's are up if KCP played more minutes, took more shots). Even if that how it is with KCP, I wouldn't necessarily conclude that no improvement's occurred. If my miler goes from an established 7 minute average to a 6 minute average for half a year, then to an 8 minute average for half a year, leading to the same ol' 7 minute average on the whole, I'd say real improvement occurred, but also regression. Just looking at the average would be misleading in that case (roughly KCP's), covering over the details that would need to examined both concerning the improvement and the regression. In the case of the miler, I'd think of injury or just getting physically worn down as explanations. Both half year performances would be quite real; just focusing on the average would obscure what's going on in such a case.

In short, maybe KCP really did improve (as Oracle and Lemonpen contend) even though BallinD's right that his averages are in line with the past.

Having written all that, I finally bothered to check KCP's stats. Interesting. Some up, some down compared to the previous season. Focusing on the 36 minute stats for the sake of comparison, he's really brought PF's down over the course of 4 seasons. The big jump forward I see is in assists, up 50% over last season, which was his previous high. His FG% went up his first seasons, then down this year. 3P% up this season, but just a tick high than his 2nd season. Rebounding and blocks, remarkably stable for his career. Same with steals, except (!?) that they were highest his first season.

Ok, having studied the numbers a bit, I feel comfortable reiterating my mediating hypothesis that he really did improve in that he established a higher level of play for a significant amount of time, even though BallinD make a solid point that his averages for the year don't indicate clear improvement [again, for me, with the exception of the assists increasing significantly].

Hard for me to see that adding up to a max contract, but I'm going to be shocked if the Pistons don't pay him a market level contract (18-20 mil?). Again, the Pistons find themselves in a tough spot, where it's hard to see a great outcome.
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Well

Post  lemonpen on Tue Jun 06, 2017 5:11 pm

deusXango wrote:
lemonpen wrote:JR Smith, was once considered a "low bball IQ" player, and rightly so.  He now wears a championship ring.  If there were ever a poster child for change....   Let's not be so quick to judge KCP.
With all due respect Lemon, did JR Smith ever command a max contract and did he ever threaten to pose an excessive CAP threat for any team he played for? Yes the "dummy" has a ring, but have you noticed the dumbest of them all (JaVele McGhee) is about to join the "Dumb Champions Club?"lol

For the record, I like KCP and Drummond, but the money issues that has arisen by keeping players like Reggie Jackson and Jon Leuer on the roster has created many fans (myself included) to look at the team and it's needs to contend, and make painful decisions. Drummond and KCP are Pistons from the beginning of their careers, and are valuable to us today; that's where our (my) loyalty lies. Jackson and Leuer both received paydays from us that they wouldn't have received anywhere else; they're both crapshoots of the future and my loyalty to them ends at the cashiers window. There's a market for Drummond and KCP, but the trade value for Jackson and Leuer has gone down...two of the top four contracts the Pistons have!

Guys,

I believe this is a case where it is unfair to rate a player on the entirety of his seasons performance. A look at his 2 / 3 / 5 man lineup numbers yell out that every starter has been significantly hampered by REGGIE JACKSON. I point to 2 stats that offer an indication of how KCPs role changed after RJax return.

Before: KCP averaged 3.1 assists/gm in Nov; After: KCP averaged 2.9/2.8/2.5/1.9/1.5 assists/gm/month in that order.

Before: 41% of KCPs fga were 3 pointers; After: 48%/47%/49%/49%/61% of his fga/gm/month were treys, again in that order.


Upon Reggies return the starting SG became a steadily decreasing part of the offense. IMO the argument isn't whether to pay Pope, it is whether to keep him at all if we are going to keep Jackson.
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Lemons

Post  BallinD on Tue Jun 06, 2017 3:44 pm

lemonpen wrote:JR Smith, was once considered a "low bball IQ" player, and rightly so.  He now wears a championship ring.  If there were ever a poster child for change....   Let's not be so quick to judge KCP.

Good point, Lemon, but I think we are all hoping and needing KCP to be better for us than JRS.  Career role player, not part of anybody's core.  Career Avg 12.9 ppg, Per 8.11. And isn't it fair to say most likely King James told him/taught him how he needs to play and compete and defend if he wanted to play on his team??  We don't have anywhere near that influence on the Stones.  Who is gonna tell KCP to attack the rack, quit trying to be Kobe in one game, then Michael Curry in the next.  

KCP played 30 games last season in which he scored 10 pts or less.  We need more.


Last edited by BallinD on Tue Jun 06, 2017 4:48 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : oops)
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Who can figure?

Post  deusXango on Tue Jun 06, 2017 2:56 pm

lemonpen wrote:JR Smith, was once considered a "low bball IQ" player, and rightly so.  He now wears a championship ring.  If there were ever a poster child for change....   Let's not be so quick to judge KCP.
With all due respect Lemon, did JR Smith ever command a max contract and did he ever threaten to pose an excessive CAP threat for any team he played for? Yes the "dummy" has a ring, but have you noticed the dumbest of them all (JaVele McGhee) is about to join the "Dumb Champions Club?"lol

For the record, I like KCP and Drummond, but the money issues that has arisen by keeping players like Reggie Jackson and Jon Leuer on the roster has created many fans (myself included) to look at the team and it's needs to contend, and make painful decisions. Drummond and KCP are Pistons from the beginning of their careers, and are valuable to us today; that's where our (my) loyalty lies. Jackson and Leuer both received paydays from us that they wouldn't have received anywhere else; they're both crapshoots of the future and my loyalty to them ends at the cashiers window. There's a market for Drummond and KCP, but the trade value for Jackson and Leuer has gone down...two of the top four contracts the Pistons have!
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