2013 Draft Prospect

[merc]

I'd like to share my expert opinion on how well this years rookie crop will do...
I like apples... bananas are good too... good luck Joe.

[Oracle]

You really have a good analytical mind!

As I said, we totally agree that it takes something akin to a miracle to transform a SG into a true PG, although we also agree that the reason is debatable.

I contend the it's not roket science, but more a league fulfilled prophecy!

The window a player has to make the transition is VERY small, and the luck a player would need to land into the right situation and the right coach is near ZERO! Teams don't have the time, and in most cases the inclination to help a player make the transition, and, IMO, that explains why it almost never happens!

It's the NBA, not the NBA developmental league! The difference being the NBA is about money, not development, and development almost always falls on the player to make happen, and at their rate of pay, some would say rightly so, but it may be short sighted in some cases!

[Oracle]

BTW, try carrying out that same analysis on ALL of your pets(Burke, Flip, etc.)!

That sword cuts so many ways it's ridiculous!

The best measure is what actually gets accomplished!

Okay so lets re-hire Flip his record is better than any coach out there including Gundy's. I don't think it's the best measure just the easiest one to draw the easiest and most popular conclusion with. It's like the latest fad type of thing. This isn't knocking Hollins record or implying its hyped but again the man only had 2 winning seasons Memphis and we seen guys with far better track records for winning games get slap down.

Also I used this very same analysis with Burke and Flip, sh!t I used it on CV and Kwame.

You seriously have to be joking, you're all over the map!

First of all, if you're including coaches that aren't available, why not include some dead ones? Wow, talk about being in left field

Secondly, you don't even come close to using that faulty analysis of Hollins on your pets!

If you did, you'd talk about the number of winning seasons Burke had in the Big 10(is it ZERO)?

You'd also talk about how the other players made the team a winner, you'd find all of the lame excuses you used to claim Hollins had help to say he didn't deserve anything he earned!

You'd look at the combine numbers and conclude that he was never going to be capable of being an elite NBA PG!

Yadda, Yadda, Yadda, but you don't and won't because you "Like" him!

Wake up man, in reality nobody does anything in a team sport by themselves, so we break things down based on their responsibilities, and the coaches that run the show get the credit and the blame or overall success/failure!

Stop the nit picking, it's beneath you and it's kind of strange!

[deusXango]

BTW, try carrying out that same analysis on ALL of your pets(Burke, Flip, etc.)!

That sword cuts so many ways it's ridiculous!

The best measure is what actually gets accomplished!

Okay so lets re-hire Flip his record is better than any coach out there including Gundy's. I don't think it's the best measure just the easiest one to draw the easiest and most popular conclusion with. It's like the latest fad type of thing. This isn't knocking Hollins record or implying its hyped but again the man only had 2 winning seasons Memphis and we seen guys with far better track records for winning games get slap down.

Also I used this very same analysis with Burke and Flip, sh!t I used it on CV and Kwame.

Wise, didn't Flip take an upper management position somewhere? He was a winning coach here but, he didn't blow my hair back, so I don't follow his career now that he's moved on. I do know that he didn't quit in Washington, he was let go; I think the team quit on him.

[Sparma]

The main thing I'm curious is how many established (i.e., 2nd year & beyond, +, with serious minutes under their belts) go from a mediocre (circa a 1.5 or worse assist to TO ratio) to a good one. It's probably not statististically worked out enough to use Knight and Calderon as paradigms, but it's a Pistons forum and their numbers do seem like decent mediocre to good ratio examples.

I used the 4 mark for assists because Knight hits it, but it's probably high in framing the mediocre to good question. Maybe a mpg standard is the better way to go. 30 minutes seems like a decent standard, partly because Knight's over it, but not by much, both seasons. There should probably be some assist minimum to count as a "good" PG season. I'd see 5 as rock bottom, with 6 as a better minimum standard. I exclude the rookie year, again partly because Knight's put in two years already. Also, a ton of variables are in play the rookie year and it seems more reliable to start looking for a pattern the second year. All very amateurish, I'm sure.

Steve Nash doesn't hit the 30 mpg mark until his third year. [It's hard to track the numbers because I'm not finding year by year listing of ratios.] Nash goes from a 3rd year 2.644 to what looks to be his best at 3.06, coming nowhere near clearing the Calderon to Knight hurdle.

Shockingly, Avery Johnson's first 30 mpg season is his eleventh. His first 20 & mpg comes in his 6th (!) season, but he only played 20 games. He's a tough comparison. By the time, he plays close to what Knight did this season, he has a good assist/ TO ratio. Even using the low minute early season he doesn't appear to come close to clearly the Knight to Calderon level of improvement.

Dennis Johnson doesn't hit 30 mpg until his third season, hitting a 1.458 ratio (close to Knight!)moving to 3.4, approaching the hurdle at 2.33 x improvement. Using his 1.4 ratio (sub 30 minute) 2nd season, he comes awfully close at 2.428 times improvement.

Those are excellent examples of PGs increasing their assist totals, Oracle. As far as I know so far, only Billups (with some tweaking of the original standards) passes the Knight to Calderon hurdle. Johnson's really close and may provide the best exemplar (Billlups' low appears to be an off season, below his early established standard); he kept his TOs steady and gradually lifted his assists. I remember him principally as an all time great defender, but that's a different story.

[WTF]

BTW, try carrying out that same analysis on ALL of your pets(Burke, Flip, etc.)!

That sword cuts so many ways it's ridiculous!

The best measure is what actually gets accomplished!

Okay so lets re-hire Flip his record is better than any coach out there including Gundy's. I don't think it's the best measure just the easiest one to draw the easiest and most popular conclusion with. It's like the latest fad type of thing. This isn't knocking Hollins record or implying its hyped but again the man only had 2 winning seasons Memphis and we seen guys with far better track records for winning games get slap down.

Also I used this very same analysis with Burke and Flip, sh!t I used it on CV and Kwame.

[deusXango]

Josh Smith is without a doubt the most dynamic FA going on the market this year; he has size, length, athleticism, and young with NBA experience. He's a force on defense, blocking shots, rebounding, and able to hold down the likes of Durant, James, and Anthony, by minimizing their offensive output. Yet there are those who speak against him, in favor of investing in lessor talent, because he's taken ill-advised 3's (who on this team hasn't taken ill-advised shots?), and feels he deserves a max contract from Atlanta (considering that outrageous deal given to Joe Johnson). These are members of the subliminal anti-win crowd. First off this is "Big Money" Gores coin and he said to spend knuckleheads, and second, it's more important to play defense now than to worry about spacing the floor with outside shots, so reckless guards like Stuckey can attack the rim; ever hear of interior passing, mid-range jump shots, or "floaters?"

Lionel Hollins is without a doubt the best coach on the market that is ready to coach a team; he has no team to coach, and the world just witnessed what he is capable of over the last couple of years with a Brandon Knight like PG leading his team. He's a motivator, ex-starting player with a championship ring, commands respect from his players (Z-Bo was a "coach killer" and that's how he ended up in Memphis), and an above average tactician on both ends of the floor (and still learning). He's not too old to see a young team grow up, and he's not inflexible. A subliminal suggestion to not win is to find reasons to look at candidates with lessor records/accomplishments, or untried and therefore unproven, as being on par with or superior to him. They say "show me something" right after he's stepped from the spotlight; he's an ESPN construct. ESPN who's specialty is slam dunk highlights and negative rigmarole. The naysayers who speak against Hollins hire are, IMHO, members of the subliminal anti-win crowd. If McMillan, Cheeks, Shaw, and even a Euro coach who's coached in gyms that held 500 people max, can receive consideration, why is Hollins being treated like Bill Laimbeer and Isaiah Thomas when it comes to equal consideration?

Just as there are a lot of people that show up for a game, not all of them are fans, they're just there, there are a lot of fans that say they support the team but, they don't really want the team to win, they just want things their way; that's how you recognize members of the subliminal anti-win crowd.

[Oracle]

Avery Johnson!

It was said that no team run by Avery Johnson could EVER win a championship... until he did it(of course Wise won't give him credit for that either )!

After 4 full seasons, Avery never averaged 4.0 assists per game even once! He was always below 4!

He finished his career with a 5.5 average!

Dennis Johnson averaged 4 assists only once in his first 5 seasons!

Steve Nash didn't get over 4 assists until his 3rd season, and only played half a season that year, but he blew up after that!

[Sparma]

Earlier this year, I looked at a list of top ten PGs in the league. To my surprise, Calderon didn't make the list. That means some would regard it as a tough case to make that Calderon is in the top 1/3 of PGs. In addition, his numbers weren't that good in Detroit compared to his norm after 2 seasons (Jose's worst ratio (as a rookie) was 2.8.

His assists to TO ratio in Toronto (a weak team!) this season was significantly better than his ratio for the time spent in Detroit (likely a reflection of a sub-optimal supporting cast as well as poor coaching).

Considering all that, I'll take Calderon's Detroit assist to TO ratio as representing that of a good PG.

As mentioned earlier, Calderon's Detroit ratio was 2.5 times (2.498) better than Knight's.

We all know that Knight's played a lot of minutes in his two NBA seasons, mostly at PG. We also know that Knight posted 4.0 assists per game this season.

Here's the question that occurred to me: has there ever been an NBA PG with at least two years of full-time playing time who averaged at least 4 assists a game who improved his assist to TO ratio by 2.5 times? Slightly differently, we could ask whether anyone with Knight's experience and roughly his 1.465 ratio has improved his ratio by 2.5 times. Let's ask about anyone with a 1.5 ratio or worse.

The answer is yes, at least if we bend the criteria a bit in the case of Billups. Let's assume we all know that this kind of transformation is rare. Does anyone know how rare? I for one don't and am reduced to estimates.

Billups' worst ratio is 1.62 (a bit higher than the 1.5 target; if anything though, this make the leap tougher for Billups. Also, he fell short of 4 assists that year, with a low mpg.) Looks like his best rate comes in at 4.095. That's 2.527 times better, so he makes it, if barely!

A statistician could run the test with little trouble. I think it'd be useful to have the hard facts (the that) before delving deeply into the why and how.

[Oracle]

BTW, try carrying out that same analysis on ALL of your pets(Burke, Flip, etc.)!

That sword cuts so many ways it's ridiculous!

The best measure is what actually gets accomplished!

[Oracle]

"If we are basing this on records then Joe and Gore need to be on the phone with Van Gundy. I'm not looking at the record as the only determining fact. Hollins is just the new name to be tag the next greatest thing even coaches get caught up by the ESPN Hype Machine. Being the most popular choice isn't necessarily the right choice." - Wise

Yes, I believe that Stan is the man we need more than any of the guys in the search, but after the way Jeff has trashed the Pistons, I doubt that would happen, and it's unfortunate! I think the Van Gundy's smell Joe's stuff from a distance!

However with Hollins, here you go again! You act like there's no reason people are interested in him and it's just hype! Do you EVER respect what people accomplish? - Oracle

Hollins took a crap team and rebuilt it into a tough competitor, and if you watched ANY of the many series, you'd know that he's tough, fair, but doesn't take any crap from his players. His teams are well organized, and that's what we need! - Oracle

IMO, he did get out coached by Pop, but many do! I think the difference between SA winning and Memphis losing can be directly traced to Hollins inability to adapt to Pop's defense on ZBo, but nobody's perfect!

No I'm just a "Hard Sell" I'm not saying Hollins didn't do a good job, I'm just not over blowing what he did in Memphis. Is what he did more impressive than what McMillan did with the roster he had in Seattle? Not really!

One could easily say that it was the presence of Randolph that elevated Memphis. Hollins only had 2 winning seasons in Memphis hardly the career record of many other coaches that are out there.

You know how I go on this coach thing, I will no more overly blame a coach for losing than I would for winning. Randolph, Gay, Conley, Mayo, Gasol, Tinsley and Brewer were hardly scrubs his first full season with Memphis. Was it the roster getting better via trades and free agency or solely Hollins coaching? Was it Westbrook injury or Hollins coaching that got them to the WCF Finals? I don't want to sound like I'm hating but I'm not ignoring all the obvious events.

I agree, but who's over blowing anything?

I put Hollins, McMillian in about the same pot, and Stan Van Gundy a notch higher, IMO!

My problem is not that you are a hard sell, it's that when you disrespect a man by saying what he ACTUALLY did was hype, that's just plain off!

He did what he did, I don't care if he resurrected Wilt to get it done, the record speaks for itself!

[WTF]

"If we are basing this on records then Joe and Gore need to be on the phone with Van Gundy. I'm not looking at the record as the only determining fact. Hollins is just the new name to be tag the next greatest thing even coaches get caught up by the ESPN Hype Machine. Being the most popular choice isn't necessarily the right choice." - Wise

Yes, I believe that Stan is the man we need more than any of the guys in the search, but after the way Jeff has trashed the Pistons, I doubt that would happen, and it's unfortunate! I think the Van Gundy's smell Joe's stuff from a distance!

However with Hollins, here you go again! You act like there's no reason people are interested in him and it's just hype! Do you EVER respect what people accomplish? - Oracle

Hollins took a crap team and rebuilt it into a tough competitor, and if you watched ANY of the many series, you'd know that he's tough, fair, but doesn't take any crap from his players. His teams are well organized, and that's what we need! - Oracle

IMO, he did get out coached by Pop, but many do! I think the difference between SA winning and Memphis losing can be directly traced to Hollins inability to adapt to Pop's defense on ZBo, but nobody's perfect!

No I'm just a "Hard Sell" I'm not saying Hollins didn't do a good job, I'm just not over blowing what he did in Memphis. Is what he did more impressive than what McMillan did with the roster he had in Seattle? Not really!

One could easily say that it was the presence of Randolph that elevated Memphis. Hollins only had 2 winning seasons in Memphis hardly the career record of many other coaches that are out there.

You know how I go on this coach thing, I will no more overly blame a coach for losing than I would for winning. Randolph, Gay, Conley, Mayo, Gasol, Tinsley and Brewer were hardly scrubs his first full season with Memphis. Was it the roster getting better via trades and free agency or solely Hollins coaching? Was it Westbrook injury or Hollins coaching that got them to the WCF Finals? I don't want to sound like I'm hating but I'm not ignoring all the obvious events.

[Oracle]

"If we are basing this on records then Joe and Gore need to be on the phone with Van Gundy. I'm not looking at the record as the only determining fact. Hollins is just the new name to be tag the next greatest thing even coaches get caught up by the ESPN Hype Machine. Being the most popular choice isn't necessarily the right choice." - Wise

Yes, I believe that Stan is the man we need more than any of the guys in the search, but after the way Jeff has trashed the Pistons, I doubt that would happen, and it's unfortunate! I think the Van Gundy's smell Joe's stuff from a distance!

However with Hollins, here you go again! You act like there's no reason people are interested in him and it's just hype! Do you EVER respect what people accomplish?

Hollins took a crap team and rebuilt it into a tough competitor, and if you watched ANY of the many series, you'd know that he's tough, fair, but doesn't take any crap from his players. His teams are well organized, and that's what we need!

IMO, he did get out coached by Pop, but many do! I think the difference between SA winning and Memphis losing can be directly traced to Hollins inability to adapt to Pop's defense on ZBo, but nobody's perfect!

[WTF]

Would it be to land both Burke and McCallum. Knight would sh!t brick at training camp.

[WTF]

Let's get real folks, Lionel Hollins is the best, recently proven, available coach out there! He should've moved to the top of the Pistons hire list the day Memphis's season ended. Gores is the one that started talking that sh!t about being ready to spend, well the proof is in the pudding fella; spend whatever it takes to bring in Hollins and do it quick. We need a coaches evaluation of the teams talent before the draft (that's why so many coaching vacancies have been filled already), this would be a valuable tool for Joe Dumars and company when it comes to not only the draft but, pursuing FA's as well.

I love that quip about "low hanging fruit" in describing Mo Cheeks; it fits so well, Oracle.

No one will probably want Hollins, just like there are voices of dissention for signing Josh Smith as a FA (because of what he may receive in a contract), and drafting the BPA with #8. Those seem like simple moves to me, even for Joe, and the team would be greatly improved; improvement and creating a culture of stability is where the Pistons are now, not competing for a championship next year. Hollins, Smith, and a solid draft choice would be a giant step forward. Drummond, Monroe, Knight, Singler, and Middleton as a core to build around would benefit by being coached by Hollins, and with the suggestions that any poster has made on this forum would be so much better than what we saw under Lil' Larry.

The best defense for Mo Cheeks is to leave him alone for the time being; I'd like to see just how serious Gores was about spending money to improve his team. If he was just talking and we don't hire Hollins, then Cheeks, McMillan, Shaw, or Bozo the Clown, it really won't matter.

Okay DX, Here is some real for you. They're all low hanging fruit since none of them are really currently employed with the exception of Shaw and Cheeks. As far as Hollins goes he's the lowest hanging of all the fruit because it's easy to look at the recent success of Memphis and think he can do the same here. Let's not try to turn Monroe, and Drummond into Randolph and Gasol thinking Hollins will get the same out of them.

Randolph was already developed as a player when he arrived in Memphis and to some extent so was Gasol playing professionally with Spain and front yard 1 on 1's with his big brother. Hollins did nothing to help Randolph in that sweep by the Spurs in fact the whole team felled flat on their faces in that series. Trust me it had more to do with coaching so keep in mind Memphis may not want Hollins and IMO both Nate and Cheeks are better coaching choices.

Hello Wise, plucked a cord did I? Answer me this; who has the best coaching record? Who do you honestly feel most comfortable leading the rebuild?

Answer: Flip Saunders

If we are basing this on records then Joe and Gore need to be on the phone with Van Gundy. I'm not looking at the record as the only determining fact. Hollins is just the new name to be tag the next greatest thing even coaches get caught up by the ESPN Hype Machine. Being the most popular choice isn't necessarily the right choice.

[deusXango]

Getting a guard oriented coach will be good for the team because he can design an offense based on sharing the ball and recognizing mismatches to be taken advantage of. A guard oriented coach can recognize the selfish "me hero" type players and instruct them, and if they're not receptive to instruction, sit them regardless of who they are! A guard oriented coach who believes that offense begins with playing sound defense, and brings on defensive minded genius as assistants. I would hope that this is what Joe or whoever is looking for in the Pistons next coach; that and a commander of respect and leader of men.

[Oracle]

Dumars: Why doesn't anybody want to take this coaching job?
Gores: Joe, you are such a potlicker. You have that model of a guillotine on your desk, that you insist on fiddling with during all the interviews with the candidates.
Dumars: You think they are threatened by that?
Gores: No, they are threatened by the fact that you have fired four coaches in six years, unlike you who have been here since Wilt Chamberlain was a virgin.

Dumars: Job secuity for a coach, what a concept, never heard of it. I'll have you know I have won three championships here. There should be a bronze statue of me in front of the Palace.
Gores: Only if you take out your heart and sell your soul to the devil.
Dumars: Have a contract printed up and I'll sign it in blood.

Gores: You're drunk and delusional. The fact remains that nobody wants the job. Everybody views it as a pig in a poke.
Dumars: A who in a what?
Gores: Never mind. I should make you the coach like the Knicks did to Isaiah.
Dumars: No, you wouldn't. That's disgusting, dude.
Gores: Don't bet the farm on it, Bunky. I am super rich. I am the Lizard King. I can do anything.

Dumars: This team sucks the big one. They are uncoachable. They are talentless hacks , has beens, and never wuzzes.
Gores: I can picture it now. I'll call a press conference at which you fire yourself after a miserable season. I can totally see you coaching at Southwest Waxahatchie State A & M Teachers' College just like Isaiah did. I'll put in good word for you. The change will do you good.
Dumars: Oh, the horror.

Dumars: Hey, I just got a brainstorm. Maybe just maybe, Isaiah would take the job.
Gores: A 100% true blue brainfart would be a much finer description of your idea. Send in some industrial strength air freshener. Joe has stunk out the joint again. Hurry up it's getting toxic in here.
Dumars: Doh!

LOL, that's a LONG time, since Wilt was claimed to have porked Wilma Flintstone and that Rubble Ho Betty!!!

[Oracle]

"I'll stand by my claim that the transition to becoming a good PG (from the level of a Stuckey or a Knight) in the NBA rarely happens. That's just a fact, as best I know. Why it happens so rarely, I'm not sure, and that's worth debating." - Sparma

That's confusing! When we've all agreed that it's a true statement, it's confusing why you would need to "stand By" a generally accepted statement!

Further confusing is the following:
"Bynum helped elevate Drummond's game." - Sparma
Agreed, and it will be some PG that will do it because the post needs feeding to be effective, so we agree there.

"Some would see a false dilemma: if Knight improves, they do too." - Sparma

Probably using the wrong words, dilemma isn't appropriate, but if Knight improves, it's impossible that the bigs don't improve unless you postulate improvement in areas that we can't see! So which is it, a PG like Bynum can improve Drummond, but an improved Knight can't? How many gamed was Knight feeding Drummond as opposed to feeding Maxiell?

However, you're so focused on your belief about Knight that you fail to see that developing the PG position is the key to enhancing the power of our bigs! You couch every PG issue wrapped up in your bias against Knight that you didn't even seem to register what I said, and the facts.

Getting a guard oriented coach is designed to improve the position, not a single player!

I already believe that Knight could be a great PG! I also believe he can be a great 6th man! The difference between you and me is that I want the decision to play out on the floor as a competition, where as you want to decree it before the ball is even tossed up in the air. I can live with any competitive based result!

I don't want to pick winners and losers the way we've been doing it with Stuckey, aren't we sick and tired of that by now?

Let's draft the best guys and let their play determine who starts where and why!

[Fennis Dembo]

Dumars: Why doesn't anybody want to take this coaching job?
Gores: Joe, you are such a potlicker. You have that model of a guillotine on your desk, that you insist on fiddling with during all the interviews with the candidates.
Dumars: You think they are threatened by that?
Gores: No, they are threatened by the fact that you have fired four coaches in six years, unlike you who have been here since Wilt Chamberlain was a virgin.

Dumars: Job secuity for a coach, what a concept, never heard of it. I'll have you know I have won three championships here. There should be a bronze statue of me in front of the Palace.
Gores: Only if you take out your heart and sell your soul to the devil.
Dumars: Have a contract printed up and I'll sign it in blood.

Gores: You're drunk and delusional. The fact remains that nobody wants the job. Everybody views it as a pig in a poke.
Dumars: A who in a what?
Gores: Never mind. I should make you the coach like the Knicks did to Isaiah.
Dumars: No, you wouldn't. That's disgusting, dude.
Gores: Don't bet the farm on it, Bunky. I am super rich. I am the Lizard King. I can do anything.

Dumars: This team sucks the big one. They are uncoachable. They are talentless hacks , has beens, and never wuzzes.
Gores: I can picture it now. I'll call a press conference at which you fire yourself after a miserable season. I can totally see you coaching at Southwest Waxahatchie State A & M Teachers' College just like Isaiah did. I'll put in good word for you. The change will do you good.
Dumars: Oh, the horror.

Dumars: Hey, I just got a brainstorm. Maybe just maybe, Isaiah would take the job.
Gores: A 100% true blue brainfart would be a much finer description of your idea. Send in some industrial strength air freshener. Joe has stunk out the joint again. Hurry up it's getting toxic in here.
Dumars: Doh!

[cool breeze]

Don, I couldn't resist that rehab crack but, down to brass tacks.
I'm glad that you shared that insight into what Khris Middleton is all about because I personally believe that he's better than all the SG's what're being talked up to be drafted at #8; he's working, like a professional should be, and is cheaper than a #8 lottery pick, even if he was re-signed right now! IMHO Middleton is the answer to compliment any PG the Pistons settle on, be it Knight, Burke, McCollum, or MC-W...his ceiling hasn't been reached by a long shot.

Rodney Stuckey has always been lazy (basketball wise); he's never been accused of being a "gym rat" nor has he participated in any of the elite pro summer leagues around the country (if he did it would have been gladly reported by his adoring media). Stuckey's game had and has many holes he should have been working on filling. At this point he has to go with the addition of any guard being drafted, and the signing of another as a FA. Between Knight and Middleton he no longer has a logical place on the Pistons (only in the mind of the most delusional Stuckey fan).

I, for one, view Andre Drummond as our franchise player for a number of stunning reasons, the most obvious is him being a physical freak, much like LeBron James. His speed, quickness, reflexes, jumping ability, and the athleticism of a perimeter player, packaged inside the body of a defensive lineman is enough, once you consider he's not old enough to buy a pack of cigarettes or a bottle of sealed liquor. This young man has uncommon class for his tender years and a work ethic that he doesn't get credit for. He is fired to excel. This is a rare human being and awesome physical specimen who will do the community proud and get better and better, as time goes on, and lead this team further than any in his draft class will lead their teams, IMHO. I'm not an apologist for Drummond but, last year was a taste of what he meant to this team; Lil' Larry not playing him for extended periods, or allowing him to partner up with Monroe, and the potentially severe injury he suffered that held him out of 22 games shielded him from being seen in the brightest light.

If Lionel Hollins is talking to New Jersey, why not us? Sure, the Nets were a playoff team but, their roster is broken and Hollins can see that; within the next three years it's going to be a mess in Jersey and I don't think Hollins wants to be there for the decline, whereas Detroit is on the rise, and he can see that also. At the end of the day, it's about money and power; Gores should be able to outbid the Russian and the power for a coach is what Lil' Larry is enjoying right now, and that's guarantees. Once hired, it should be understood that the coaching decisions are his and not Joe Dumars to make, i.e. start this player or play that player; absolutely no outside meddling and he should have some say so on team personnel (like ridding Memphis of Rudy Gay because the team wasn't getting its' moneys worth).

First off dX your suggestion that I get my therapy at the Palace next fall might open me up to taking a beating from Maxiell who Joe Dumars might sign if the price is right. Jason might be looking for me in the stands to get even for the pot shots I have provided. In fact Charlie V might want to get a piece of me and he is the boxing champ on this Piston team.

Hollins would be a great coach for Detroit. I just thought he wouldn't be interested but if Memphis management doesn't want to spend the dollars, sure Gores should make a play for him. But I think the decision has already been made as to who the next Piston coach will be. I think they are just waiting until the Finals are over. I feel your pain dX as many Piston fans are for sure worried and have little confidence in the Piston management team. After all, who in hell could predict that they would hire Larry Frank? I wonder how long it will take until the new coach tears down those motivational signs that hang on the practice facility that Frank was so sure would make all the difference. The new coach needs to not make the same mistake Frank made which was he didn't actually look at what he had as players. He tried to make the dysfunctional group of players fit his system not knowing that those players Dumars selected were not capable of mastering that system. No coach could have won with those vet Players Dumars selected for Piston fans to watch fail year after year. Frank for sure was not a good bench coach or game time coach. He was good coming off timeouts at times in calling a play but seemed to lack the skill it takes to watch the game in a critical way and quickly make adjustments. He would sit there as if in a trance like the coach before him and the coach before him. Maybe he knew he was doomed from the start of his first training camp and had no confidence in any of his players and that must have showed through to his players. Maybe Frank got the last laugh and took the job knowing that he would be fired just to steal Piston money. Meanwhile, Joe Dumars was hiding in the corner wearing a Floyd Patterson false face smiling while listening to the fans complain about the coach. No pressure on the great Joe Dumars. He is a God to all who visit the Palace. The players were left to fend for themselves with no direction provided by management. But what if your guy Josh Smith would have been signed by Dumars this past season in a blockbuster trade. I agree with you dX, the Pistons would have been a much improved team for sure. Smith would have said to Monroe, what in hell are you doing out at the free throw line when the shot is going up Greg? Get your ass down here and mix it up with the other beasts. Don't be afraid. We had no vet on this team that other players really respected based on their work ethic and hard play. I think that is what you have been trying to tell us Piston fans regarding Josh Smith. He is one of those guys who are not afraid of anyone and will not back down in the painted area on defense. Forget his scoring that is a bonus. If Dumars doesn't bring in somebody to lead by example, the young players will flounder once again next season. But we have the contracts of Stuckey and Charlie V to consider and this cap space next summer. So it appears we will once again look like chumps next year but maybe a better coach can make the team look more professional. And the younger guys will start leading and ignoring guys like Stuckey and Charlie V more and more. Good job with this last post dX.

[deusXango]

I'll stand by my claim that the transition to becoming a good PG (from the level of a Stuckey or a Knight) in the NBA rarely happens. That's just a fact, as best I know. Why it happens so rarely, I'm not sure, and that's worth debating.

You say it's rarely tried. Maybe part of the reason that's hard for me to believe is that we've been trying and trying ever since drafting Stuckey, then Knight. The Stuckey fiasco began around the time that I remember Dumars holding forth about the new NBA in which positions would be increasingly unimportant. Maybe so, but I think we could have done a favor to Stuckey and Knight by placing them in a definite category with set expectations (keeping them in a box, in your terminology). For me, that box would be "combo guard" with the most effective role being coming off of bench. Work with their existing strengths, trying to extend these, rather than trying to transform them into something they aren't.

My guess is that a lot of PG-ing has to do with spatial sense, speed of recognition of quickly changing situations, social attunement, and a willingness to take on complex problems in the face of repeated failure. Innate capabilities may come into play regarding spatial sense, while early learning factors heavily into the others.

After saying that, it may be surprising that I nevertheless think PG skills are learnable (as you do) to a significant extent. I think the skills and situations would need to be broken down into their component parts. Simulation and repetition would be needed.

Not sure the optimal result of such learning at the NBA level would result in the "rewiring" Goodwill mentioned. More like a carefully crafted imitation.

In addition, I think both Stuckey and Knight might have mental blocks against trying the kind of radical retraining that might work (as in the case of Billups). I have the sense that both practiced hero ball successfully too early (in Stuck's 3rd tier college and Knight's HS) to allow for a radical shift in mindset.

That's where I do think coaching could have an effect.

I'd put the odds of a radical transformation of Stuckey at about 1% and of Knight at around 10%.

Sparma, I agree 100%!! A lot more goes into being a successful PG than what's been expected of both Stuckey and Knight, although Stuckey has never shown the desire to "get it" that Knight has. Stuckey was called a combo guard but, IMO he never displayed competency in being a good PG or SG; his justifications for playing a prominent role on the Pistons were all based on physicality, not skill or basketball I.Q. The best part of his game was FT's. Knight has shown a willingness to get better by working on getting bigger and stronger, and improving his handle (he realized he was small, even for a PG, and that he's turnover prone); he's had the benefit of one off season to do that, his first year was a 10 day preparation period to get a lockout season started. A coach may help Knight as he's basketball smart.

Larry Brown was a rare coach/teacher/motivator, with vast experience on many levels, when he came to the Pistons and turned Billips game around; there are no more Larry Brown's out there, and Chauncey was his last pupil, so let's move on from talking about both of them; they've been the main reasons we've suffered Stuckey for so long, and that's probably been unfair for both Stuckey and the Pistons. Stuckey may well be a better than decent player by now if he didn't have that undeserved sense of entitlement hoisted on him by Joe Dumars, and Joe's refusal to part with him.

[Sparma]

Wanted to finish up my overly long thought. While I think a transformation of Knight is possible, I think it's a longshot.

What strikes me key is that Monroe and Drummond's game needs effective feeding from a PG to advance. I like their chances of improvement, given proper support, much more of Knight's seriously elevating his ratio at PG. Bynum helped elevate Drummond's game. I see Monroe and Drummond as the core of the team. Their development needs to be of paramount importance, also in the coaching search. The odds of moving the team forward by focusing on their development are much better than are the odds of Knight of becoming a good PG.

Some would see a false dilemma: if Knight improves, they do too. I think it's about alligning probabilities though. I regarded Knight as so ineffectual at feeding the post, that I'm skeptical he (even in an improved version) provides the optimal way forward given the importance of the twin towers developing.

If Cheeks can contribute to his development, that would be great. I'd still like to see the experiment occur with Knight at 6th man, rather than with Monroe and Drummond heavily dependent on whether he could pull off the rare feat.

Don, I was disappointed that the team did play better with Calderon at the helm. Let's not lose sight of facts though: with Detroit, Calderon averaged 6.6 assists and 1.8 TOs; Knight averaged 4.0 assists and 2.73 TOs (I'd like to have his stats post-Calderon; his assists should have gone down, but his TOs too). That's a ratio of 3.66 for Jose and Brandon a ratio of 1.465; Jose's ratio is a hair less than 2.5 times better (2.498)!!

To me, that strongly suggests the support (whether it be coach or fellow players) wasn't nearly as decisive as some claim (where's Grizz to counter?!).

Subjectively, I saw Calderon begin to build a nice chemistry with Monroe, even with Maxiell, getting them the ball where and when needed (something Knight didn't do well).

Also, remember the second unit carried us midway through the season, with Drummond and Bynum clicking. Much of Calderon's time coincided, as I remember, with Drummond's lenghty injury. That surely affected the level of success of the team while he played.

That said, the Pistons' performance with Calderon was disappointing, I'll agree.

[Oracle]

LB's Pistons used defense to dominate the east and the league!

Boston with its big 3 used defense to dominate the league!

Next up, Miami uses an oppressive defense to dominate the league!

Drummond, Knight, Middleton(improving), MCW(hopefully with his size), Collison(backup PG), Tony Allen(SG), would make for some good defense and foster defense in the rest of the team!

[Oracle]

"Sparma I agree with you on Shaw. After the Phil Jackson media frenzy, I read up on Shaw. I think he would be good for this group of young Piston players. But I try not to get very excited about an NBA coaching staff. It is the players who decide how the team will perform." - Don

Don, while that's true, it's like saying that it's the trigger & bullets that will decide how a gun performs. Well, it takes a guiding hand to deliver on the promise of a gun or a basketball team!

What you said is only the necessary part, it's NEVER sufficient, and ONLY coaching guarantees ultimate success! I guess I'm shocked to hear you say that when I know you have so much experience in playing and coaching circles! How many talented teams fail without a coach to harness their focus into a winning unit? Can you spell the Shaq & Kobe Lakers?

"Oh I forgot that and I forgot that all those other college teams he faced this past season trembled when MCW name was mentioned. Yes if MCW is drafted and starts, Knight will come off the bench but sooner than any of you might expect. Do any of you believe that MCW or any other option in the draft with the exception of Burke would be more effective than D. Collison or that back up point guard who shined for the Warriors in the playoffs. Isn't he a free agent?" - Don

Lots of teams trembled at the sight of MCW, but I hardly think he could beat Knight out at PG any time soon! I don't see Knight coming off the bench any time soon either, If we get MCW, he will play with Knight, it's a perfect pairing IMO!

As for Collison, I've long advocated for him to come on board!

If we had Knight, MCW, Collison and Tony Allen, we would instantly win 7-10 more games based on being a great perimeter defensive team alone!

I'm drooling at the level of competition between those 4 players, all attempting to be better defenders than the next! That kind of friendly competition is what makes great teams!

[cool breeze]

I'm starting to warm up to the possibility of Cheeks. I confess it's partly because of his gracious intervention during the national anthem fiasco. Also, lin an NBA book of list, he shows up as the 88th greatest player ever (as I remember). Terrific defender and assists guy. Also, I liked him stressing flexibility in working with a roster, rather imposing a preexisting system.

On the down side, I worry about the Pistons placing too much emphasis on developing Knight as they search for a coach (in one of the Detroit papers they said something to the effect of both Cheeks and McMillan being able to focus on the "rewiring" needed for Knight at PG. Gulp. That transformation rarely happens.)

Also, I was struck by the posted study about retread coaches not improving teams, on average. (Too much to hope that Cheeks could be our Casey Stengel, who floundered before going to the Yanks.)

It's not that I'm convinced Cheeks' the best choice; I'd rather take a chance on Shaw, for one. But IF he's hired, I think there's some reason to hope he could do a decent job. I didn't have that sense after the Frank and Kuester hirings.

Sparma I agree with you on Shaw. After the Phil Jackson media frenzy, I read up on Shaw. I think he would be good for this group of young Piston players. But I try not to get very excited about an NBA coaching staff. It is the players who decide how the team will perform. It looks like many of the Piston players are dedicated to improving so as long as another freak hiring like Frank doesn't take place, things should get better. Cheeks might do a good job. I like to see who the new head coaches hire as assistants. That is key for this young Piston team. The assistants do all of the real work installing the offense and defense while working individually with the players.

What I like about this time period in Piston history is that there are a lot of young guys who are receptive to making changes in their games to fit the needs of the team. Management has not been receptive in the past few years of selecting players to fit a system. Exactly what did Dumars envision as his system when he selected Stuckey, Gordon and Charlie V to be the stable vet guys for the new young team? He didn't think things out the way a good GM should. So after drafting a guy like Knight who is extremely athletic, how was Brandon supposed to lead such a dysfunctional group of players? Stuckey sure didn't give him any help and wanted Knight to fail. But in my opinion, the real truth about this team came out once Calderon was sent to Detroit in that trade. After listening to so many fans rip Knight I thought maybe some of you were right about him and maybe Knight was the problem. But some of you ignore the fact that before Calderon, Frank bullied Knight demanding that he push the tempo on offense if he wanted to play point guard. How can you push tempo when Maxiell, Monroe and guys like Charlie V are on the floor? Maybe Knight would have looked better and reduced the amount of turnovers if he had a coach who knew the strengths of his players better and created a system to reflect those players strengths and weaknesses. A slower tempo was the only tempo possible. Yet Knight constantly was being harassed by Frank to push tempo. He followed orders and now everyone has it in stone that we need a new starting point guard. I keep saying that there is no point guard on the planet who could have made the Piston team last season better. Oh, I see Chris Paul dribbling around as the shot clock expires looking for his ace guys, Monroe, Maxiell and Stuckey to do something. Chris says, I can't see Maxiell and why is Stuckey just standing around and not moving without the ball? But people are not interested in the details. Again, it seems like so many Piston fans have ignored the real problem on this team which is the play of the Piston big men on defense. Yes forget the offense sports fans. They were the worst in the league last season. What is being done to improve this area of weakness? Can a point guard make a difference in how a big man plays defense and rebounds? I still fear that will be the Piston downfall again next season which is lack of ability to compete on the defensive glass and defend the Pick and roll play. Will Monroe watch the action on defense while trying to get a steal outside the free throw line or will he get his ass in the paint where he belongs when the shot goes up and be moving his slow feet to box somebody out? And will he try to become a shot blocker? And will Joe Dumars bring back Maxiell? That will make me ill if it happens. All other NBA teams try to attack the Pistons in the painted area. What will management do to change that? Losing has had very little to do with the Point guard on this team. Didn't Detroit lose more often when a quality point guard named Mr. Calderon started at Point guard rather than Knight? In my opinion this stigma placed on Knight is so wrong. His coaches sure didn't help him out at all. He was in a no win position last season and if I were him, I would be wanting to find some new fans on a new team. Still some of you are sure that MKW could have run this Piston team much better if only he had the opportunity to leave college sooner. Yes the guy who played zone defense will be able to guard these NBA starting guards and he will not wilt once he receives the body blows guaranteed to all newcomers when they try to penetrate on offense. But he is tall and will be able to read the defense like Labron James. Oh I forgot that and I forgot that all those other college teams he faced this past season trembled when MCW name was mentioned. Yes if MCW is drafted and starts, Knight will come off the bench but sooner than any of you might expect. Do any of you believe that MCW or any other option in the draft with the exception of Burke would be more effective than D. Collison or that back up point guard who shined for the Warriors in the playoffs. Isn't he a free agent?

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